Vardanyan in Karabakh: Game of secret services or greedy oligarch's move?
Caliber.Az versions

ANALYTICS  06 September 2022 - 13:13

Major Telegram channels supervised by Russian security services have harshly criticised billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, who last week announced he was renouncing his Russian citizenship and moving to a part of Azerbaijan's Karabakh region that is in the temporary responsibility zone of the peacekeepers. According to the mood of these TG channels, this does not bode well for Vardanyan, given the pathological aversion of the Kremlin to renegades, those who are ready to jump off as soon as possible from a ship that has gone very sideways. However, not everything is as straightforward as it may seem at first sight. But first things first.

First of all, the tenor of TG channels supervised by security services attracts attention, which hint openly to Vardanyan - people like you do not end well. For example, the TG channel Siloviki (which, by the way, has over 350 000 subscribers) writes: "Russian billionaire of Armenian descent Ruben Vardanyan has found the best way to get rid of Russia that has become "toxic" (for people like him). The names of dozens of Russian businessmen appear on sanctions lists. Ruben Vardanyan is one of them. But apparently, Mr. Vardanyan couldn't stand it and decided to leave Russia, renouncing his citizenship of the country where he earned his billions. Vardanyan talks about his good intentions, and his desire to restore Karabakh, and calls on other Armenian businessmen to follow his example. He publicly renounces Russian citizenship and declares to change his citizenship for an unrecognised "artsakh" (here and further in quotes, Ed.). Such a step can hardly provide any economic benefits to the businessman. But political benefits for the West are obvious. It's no secret that there are strong sympathies for Armenians in Karabakh in the United States and in the West in general."

TG channel further notes that by his statement Vardanyan demonstrates, first of all, to the West, that he is a friend for it and can be understood, forgiven, and even removed from the sanctions list.

"The fact that Vardanyan's step is solely political is not in question. After all, "artsakh" needed his funds earlier too. But there were none. Moreover, Vardanyan himself spoke after the 2016 war about the technical backwardness of the Armenian army. But the results of the war already in 2020 showed that nothing had been done to eliminate this backwardness. Vardanyan did nothing. Moreover, back in May 2022, the businessman declared that he was not going to leave Russia. Now he renounces his citizenship and appears in Karabakh.

Obviously, all these steps are aimed at saving Vardanyan's own funds. He does not give a damn about Armenians, just like before. Vardanyan's move will hardly be appreciated in the Kremlin. It is no secret that the Kremlin does not like traitors. More than once, such people, who try to spend their money earned in Russia abroad, have ended up badly. Can such fate await Vardanyan, who moved to Karabakh, where both Russian and Azerbaijani law enforcers work? The question is rhetorical," TG channel Siloviki writes.

In turn, another Telegram channel, VChK-OGPU (443,000 subscribers), whose name directly refers to the predecessor organizations of today's FSB, also threatened Vardanyan that he might end up badly.

"Vardanyan almost tearfully says: 'I decided to move to artsakh, renouncing Russian citizenship. This decision was not easy for me, but I am sure it is the right thing to do...'. However, it is obvious to everybody that behind all these lyrics there is only one wish - to get rid of any links with Russia where Vardanyan made his fortune in order to get out from under sanctions of the West.

It is hard to believe in Vardanyan's heartfelt desires also because 'artsakh' used to need his money before. But there were none. It is obvious that Vardanyan does not care about Armenians, and all the steps of the businessman are aimed solely at saving his own capital.

There are great doubts that the Kremlin will appreciate such a step of the businessman. It is no secret that the Kremlin does not like traitors. More than once, people, who try to spend their money earned in Russia abroad, have ended up in a bad way. Vardanyan, who moved to Karabakh, where Russian and Azerbaijani security services are operating, can hardly expect a good fate," VChK-OGPU notes.

As we can see, both the texts on TG channels with different titles, but the same focus, are as similar as Siamese twins. There is no doubt that they are written by the same author who oversees these channels. The address where this person works is also well known to all - Lubyanka. Nevertheless, these publications suggest certain thoughts.

Firstly, it is quite possible that Vardanyan is acting at the behest of another security agency competing with the FSB/RFI, which did not please people in high offices in Lubyanka and Yasenevo.

Secondly, it is possible that the texts are an attempt by the Russian security services to deflect suspicions of foul play with Vardanyan that might have arisen on the Azerbaijani side.

And finally, thirdly, it is really Vardanyan's "heartfelt desire", who wants to escape from the sanctioned Russia, which was not coordinated with Moscow, but nevertheless has greatly stressed it. In this case, it is obvious stupidity on the part of the fugitive oligarch that may indeed entail certain actions of the Russian security services. Vardanyan may be able to save his money. But will he save his own life? After all, Putin, as we know, does not forgive traitors.

In conclusion, we must say that all three versions are possible. Only one thing is clear: Baku is closely monitoring Vardanyan's activities and processes around him. Which, undoubtedly, does not bode well for him.

Caliber.Az