Armenia lures France and US to region
...and sets the ball rolling against Russia and Iran

ANALYTICS  30 September 2022 - 14:35

The Armenian Prime Minister seems to start a new intrigue. After the provocation undertaken by the Armenian troops on the border with Azerbaijan, "cunning" Pashinyan decided to present the situation in his own way, with an eye to destabilise the region as much as possible. However, all his tricks ultimately make Armenia shed crocodile tears.

Sneakily and cowardly, as is typical of his kind, Pashinyan is trying to reformat another Armenian provocation on the border into a strategic combination. But he is no strategist or tactician, so he fails to sensationalise. As for Baku, nothing else was expected here.

Thus, yesterday's clash in Kalbajar, initiated by the Armenian side, prompted Pashinyan to make another insinuation. "This is an attack on Armenia's independence, sovereignty, and democracy. The Azerbaijani invasion must be condemned and stopped. Withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops and the deployment of an international observer mission to the Armenian territories suffering from the occupation is an absolute necessity," Pashinyan indignant in a style he himself has deliberately invented.

In fact, by requesting the deployment of an international observation mission, Pashinyan continues provocations in a political manner, trying to avoid responsibility and to maximally slow down the processes of preparation of a peace agreement, delimitation of borders, and unblocking of communications. He said this almost openly from the podium of the UN the other day. And this rhetoric is a continuation of the games in order to attract a strong third player, which, given a favourable turn of events, can, as the Armenian prime minister believes, "put Baku in its place". And if previously it was the CSTO forces, the Russian peacekeeping contingent, luring of Paris and Washington, now this is not enough for Pashinyan.

However, it is obvious that the current provocations of Armenia are also taking place because, after the bitter defeat and military-diplomatic bankruptcy in 2020, the tendencies of revanchism are intensifying in Armenia. And its leadership is pursuing the aim of avoiding as much as possible the implementation of the requirements reflected in the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020, in particular not withdrawing its troops and equipment still remaining in the territory of Azerbaijan, and trying to maintain and reformat its military presence in Karabakh in various ways. Armenia's successive provocations and the events of September 13-14 are clear evidence of this.

Now that the Armenian forays on the border are periodically causing new political speculation by Yerevan, it is safe to say that Pashinyan has entered a new phase of dirty manipulation, the point of which was initially to avoid substantive negotiations to the utmost, but to simulate the process itself. However, when it came to detailed discussions, Pashinyan urgently take a step back. And it seems that from now on Armenians will prefer to mention the format of Moscow and Brussels very rarely. Now everything will be more blunt and straightforward: Armenia will continue armed provocations on the border, and then, blaming Azerbaijan, will demand the entry of some international peacekeepers, obviously American and French. And this will again delay the obviousness of the peace talks for some time.

However, Pashinyan has now by his manipulations brought the situation to a rather dangerous line, for which he can hardly be praised by any of the regional players. With his newly-made calls for the involvement of international forces in the South Caucasus, and whoever else, the Armenian prime minister blatantly violates the rules of the game, which all countries in the region accept by default - not to involve external, extra-regional forces into the situation. This is the factor on which both Türkiye and Azerbaijan, as well as Iran and Russia have the same position. Even quite "NATO-oriented" Georgia agrees to act according to this logic.

Thus, Yerevan openly demonstrates that it simply does not care about the interests of all neighbouring countries, even its strategic partners - Iran and Russia. And Yerevan can hardly get away with it.

It also suggests that Armenia is actively manipulating international public opinion and trying to stage political provocations against Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia sees the scale of the work being carried out in the territories liberated from occupation and knows that the integration of Armenians living in Karabakh into Azerbaijani society is inevitable, but is trying to strike a blow against this process.

And while Armenia had previously pursued its aggressive policy relying on Russia, recent events have shown that Yerevan has changed its orientation and is openly seeking support from the West. However, Pashinyan's blatant speculations are so obvious that regional powers understand the true aims of Armenia's current policy and can correctly assess its real intentions. And so may well contribute to the peace process by forcing Armenia to abandon its absurd claims.

Why would Yerevan need such complex games, where it could be exhausted and bring the country to a final collapse? Wouldn't it be easier to conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and live in peace? But it appears that Armenia is now unable to pursue the path of reconciliation with Azerbaijan and is interested in maintaining tension in the region.

Caliber.Az