"Armenia may face the question of its statehood's existence"
Professor Kobrinskiy interviewed by Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  04 November 2022 - 13:45

Any meetings of the conflicting countries' leaders can be regarded as a positive fact, even regardless of the results, because it is very important to sit down at the negotiating table and listen to each other, and not fight. The director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies, Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Doctor of Historical Sciences Alexander Kobrinsky is confident of this.

Commenting on Caliber.Az the recent meeting of the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Russian leaders in Sochi, the current stage of the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and Armenia's possible withdrawal from the CSTO, the Russian political scientist namely focused on this idea.

Baku closed the Karabakh topic

"Baku has solved its main task - the issue of territorial integrity. And today Azerbaijan already faces another task related to the normalisation of relations with Armenia, and not at all a territorial dispute. However, this process will be quite long due to the fact that it is very painful for Armenia. It seems to me that Azerbaijan should create conditions in Karabakh for Armenians so that they can freely get to their holy places, but at the same time objectively - this is the territory of Azerbaijan," Kobrinsky said.

Does Europe need a new war in the Caucasus?

Speaking about the participation of Brussels in the negotiations, he added: "As I said earlier, the greater the Anglo-Saxon or European presence in Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, the longer the normalisation process will take. The reason is trivial. Europeans, like Americans, do not need peace in the Caucasus. Now, as for the recent Prague meeting. I will say this: a meeting is good, but Prague is bad. The question is, do you want to meet? You are welcome. There are Bishkek, Almaty, and Tashkent for this purpose, there are a lot of places where you can meet. Normal results can be achieved in negotiations only on the territory of the former Soviet Union, except for the Baltic states. If, after all, the collective West is fully involved in the normalisation process, negotiations will stall, and a new war in the region will be inevitable. Because the West needs tribes of savages on our territory who will kill each other, and the Americans and the Anglo-Saxons will manage all this chaos. We must understand that they need oil, gas, minerals and even fresh water. Armenia is constantly looking to the West, and this does not bode well for it. Unlike the Armenian leadership, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demonstrates a more correct attitude towards Russia. This is an objective reality. Azerbaijan does not have a large American embassy or Western biological laboratories on its territory. Baku is pursuing a more consistent and balanced policy, and Yerevan's vacillations to the left and right, or even up and down, do not make it possible to develop a clear policy in the negotiations."

Ours as well as yours

"Türkiye is a serious ally next to Azerbaijan, and this is a fact. And Russia has approximately the following approach to both Armenians and Azerbaijanis: "both are dear to us, we do not want this conflict, therefore we cannot take sides." And we don't want to because we value the human lives that the war takes away. Yes, the conflicting parties have already taken a serious step towards signing a peace treaty, but this is not enough yet," the Russian expert believes.

And what about the CSTO?

About Armenia as an ally: "As for Armenia's claims put forward against the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], in my opinion, they are unfounded. The task of the CSTO is not to interfere in the conflict itself. But I confess, I am sceptical of this organisation myself. In fact, this is a semi-living structure, so I would not attach importance to the very fact of its existence. It is obvious to me that the West will do everything possible to destroy any organisations in which Russia is involved in. But I think that the issue of withdrawal from the CSTO will still be put forward in Armenia.

On the other hand, it would suit Azerbaijan very much. You don't have a land border with Nakhchivan, as far as I understand… This is an evil joke. In fact, it is beneficial for Azerbaijan if Armenia continues to commit stupid acts. For example, if the Russian base in Gyumri is withdrawn from the country, then great prospects will open up for Baku. At the same time, Armenia will face the question of its statehood's existence.

The same applies to the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. I think it would be advisable for them to stay there until the situation is fully resolved.

Now, as for the EU mission stationed on the territory of Armenia, I believe this is not about observers, but about instigators. Therefore, I consider the invitation of Europeans to Armenia to be a big mistake for Yerevan. As for the internal political situation in this country, most likely the protests will continue, but Pashinyan will remain in power for the time being and will try to turn Armenia to the West. So, it seems to me, the threat of war will remain," Kobrinskiy summed up.

Caliber.Az