Regional balance of forces reduces risk of new Baku-Yerevan war, analyst says
Oleg Sidorov in touch with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  11 November 2022 - 14:10

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Russian political strategist, and candidate of political sciences Oleg Sidorov.

- Oleg Nikolaevich, how do you assess the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by Russia and, in particular, the meeting of the leaders of the three countries in Sochi?

- There was no result in the form of a bilateral document signed by Baku and Yerevan, so it is premature to talk about a breakthrough in relations between the two countries. However, the fact that the parties sat down at the negotiating table and began to discuss painful topics is a positive moment, which gives reason to assume that Azerbaijan and Armenia are interested in resolving the differences that have arisen. I believe that the negotiation process, which has intensified with the help of Moscow, will allow us to take real shape in the medium term. In any case, the meeting of the leaders in Sochi has already shown that the negotiation process has begun to move in a constructive direction, which is quite a significant indicator.

- Is there a chance of signing a peace agreement before the end of this year?

- Let's be realistic. Today there is only a small probability of signing a peace agreement. The issue here is not only the desire of the heads of the two countries to sign the document but also the need for a set of preparatory measures, since only through painstaking work can a bilateral agreement adopt a finally formed structure that meets the interests of the countries participating in the negotiation process.

- Some experts do not rule out the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gyumri. What do you think about this?

- I think it is hardly possible and it hardly meets Armenia's interests. The question is that, as they say, a holy place is never empty, and instead of a Russian base, another base will arise... the United States or NATO. And here another geopolitical flywheel is already being launched, which will radically change the balance of power in the region and, as a result, the internal political situation in Armenia. In this regard, I doubt that Yerevan is interested in internal political and socioeconomic upheavals that are byproducts of foreign countries' deployment of military bases.

- Yerevan demands withdrawal from the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], among other things. How much is it possible, according to your estimates?

- I think this option is unlikely since all the CSTO member countries are aware that if they leave the organisation, there will be no way back, which means there will be no support in many areas of interaction between countries within the bloc. Taking into account the state of the Armenian Armed Forces and the situation in the region, Yerevan's withdrawal from the CSTO is a debatable issue that does not oblige the adoption of real steps in this direction.

- What can Armenia's constant gazes toward the West and the United States, as well as the deployment of the EU mission on its territory, lead to?

- Nothing good. Apart from advice and demands, the EU and Washington will not be able to offer Yerevan any real plans to improve the economy and equalise domestic policy. Taking into account Europe's internal political and socioeconomic situation, the EU mission's policy will be aimed at severing Armenia's ties with Russia.
Given the Armenian economy's reliance on Russia, distance from Moscow will exacerbate Armenia's socioeconomic situation, leading to the republic's entry into a zone of internal political turbulence.

- Do you admit the possibility of a new war between Baku and Yerevan, given the revanchist sentiments in Armenia and its support by the West?

- This possibility cannot be ignored. However, given the current balance of power in the region, this scenario is unlikely.

- How do you see the future of Armenia and Armenian-Russian relations?

- Everything here depends on Armenia's political leadership. I would like to note that Russia has been Armenia's main trade and economic partner for more than 10 years. Russia is also the main investor in the republic. Bilateral cooperation is expanding in political, military, cultural and other fields. Even the negotiation process between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders took place with the Russian president's participation. As a result, the likelihood of Moscow and Yerevan expanding and deepening bilateral relations is greater than Armenia's distancing from Russia.

Caliber.Az