What's next for the war after Kherson?
Ukrainian experts on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  14 November 2022 - 14:40

On November 11, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine announced the liberation of Kherson from the occupation. Ukrainian armed forces entered the city. Residents of Kherson took to the streets to greet the Ukrainian military and celebrate their liberation.

A statement by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry said: "Any attempts to oppose the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be stopped. Any Russian serviceman who resists will be destroyed. You have the only chance to avoid death - to surrender immediately".

The statement of the Russian Defence Ministry notes that on November 11, by 5 a.m. Moscow time, an operation was completed in the Kherson direction to transfer a group of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper.

"All the personnel, weapons, and military equipment of the grouping have been withdrawn to the left bank. More than 30,000 Russian servicemen, about 5,000 pieces of arms and military equipment, and material assets have been withdrawn," the Russian Defence Ministry stressed in its statement.

It emphasized that formations and military units of the Russian Armed Forces, which were withdrawn from the right bank, have occupied engineering-fortified defensive lines and positions.

Many are now speculating about the significance of this event for the further course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. For example, there is a widespread belief that after the return of Kherson, psychologically, operationally, and strategically the Russian Armed Forces and the motivation of the Russians are "catastrophically broken". And they will no longer be able to "roll back" the situation.

So, is it safe to say today that the liberation of Kherson was a watershed event in the war, that the Russian army, a significant part of the elites and society are completely demoralised? How accurate is it to assume that the question of the possibility of the further Russian advance on Mykolaiv and Odesa is completely closed?

Moreover, even before this event, quite a few experts were saying that after the liberation of Kherson the collapse of the front line in all directions will begin and the Russian army will retreat from Ukraine altogether. How adequate are such predictions? And what are the likely consequences of this event for the warring parties?

Caliber.Az  asked Ukrainian security experts to answer these questions.

Nikolay Nazarov, doctor of political sciences and director of the Regional Security Research Centre (Sumy), first of all, noted that back in October he said that the turning point in the war had already happened: the Russians have shifted from the logic of offensive to the logic of defence.

"I regard the retreat of Russian troops under pressure from the AFU as a logical stage in the development of Ukraine's counter-offensive, the goal of which is the complete de-occupation of our state's territories. This process cannot be stopped, it will be gradually implemented. As for Kherson, we can confidently state that the strategy of the AFU command was to create a situation in which retreat would be the only possible solution for the Russian army. Since the AFU command values the lives of its soldiers, an assault on the city would be an unacceptable military solution, and therefore the decision was made to push the Russians out by cutting them off from supplies.

I believe that the return of Ukrainian control of Kherson is an important indicator of the success of the counterattack and the strategy that the General Staff chose. For Russia, obviously, the withdrawal from Kherson is a huge image and strategic loss, which speaks both to the systemic problems of the Russian army and opens up additional opportunities for the AFU to de-occupy Crimea. This certainly does not mean that Russia has already lost and we can relax, but Ukraine's success with the de-occupation of southern Ukraine opens the way to further successes," the expert said.

After the de-occupation of Kherson, there is no need to talk seriously about such prospects as a Russian advance on Mykolaiv and Odesa, Nazarov said.

"Russia is facing less ambitious tasks - holding those territories that it managed to occupy at the beginning of the war. It is safe to say that this topic is closed until spring - Russia will mainly defend itself, but what happens in spring depends on a number of factors: the internal political situation in Russia, Russia's ability to mobilise the declared number of reservists, the geopolitical situation, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. Accordingly, we can notice that Russian propagandists practically do not raise the topic of Mykolaiv and Odesa, understanding that this is a futile topic that will put them in a puddle," says Nazarov.

Forecasts of an impending full retreat of the Russian army are probabilistic - that is, there is no reason to assert this with absolute certainty, Nazarov noted.

"Such a scenario is possible if we manage to take advantage of a certain situational confusion among the Russian armed forces and implement several powerful counter-offensives. Perhaps it will be a blockage of the land corridor to the Crimea or a blow from Zaporizhzhia to Berdyansk, an offensive in the Luhansk region is also possible. In any case, the capture of Kherson opens up additional opportunities for the AFU to work in the Crimean direction, as well as to free up some units in other directions. I believe that despite the approach of winter, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to galvanize their success and de-occupy as much of the territories as possible in order to prevent the enemy from digging in and replenishing the army with mobilized ones," Nazarov said.

For his part, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reserve general, deputy chairman of the SBU from March 2014 to June 2015, and director of the Security Sector Reform Agency Viktor Yahun said the retreat from Kherson did demoralise Russia's army, elites, and society, but it is too early to say that it was a turning point.

"Strategically, Putin does not need Luhansk and Donetsk, he needs the Azov region (a land route to Crimea), water to Crimea, and electricity to Crimea (the Zaporizhzhia NPP). If he loses one of these factors, the whole adventure to attack Ukraine makes no sense. Then there is no reason to defend the Crimea either," the general said.

According to Yahun, one can forget about the possibility of further advancement of the Russian troops in the direction of Mykolaiv and Odessa, and in the future, towards Transnistria (Moldova). All tactical possibilities have been lost. It is impossible to capture these regions of Ukraine without a successful landing operation from the sea. The Russian Federation has lost such opportunities, it has no operational initiative at sea and has lost the main forces of elite units of marines and airborne troops in the Kherson direction. It is impossible to force a crossing of the Dnieper River with such conditions of troops in the near future...

"I do not think we will see a collapse of the front and a panic flight of Russian troops from Ukraine any time soon," Yahun continued. "They are entering the winter period at a very difficult time for them, this is due to both moral and psychological moments and normal logistical support. But the margin of safety still allows them to hold the line and try to attack in some parts of the front. At the same time, they do not have the ability to conduct large-scale operations and maneuvers, they have no troops, no equipment and no desire to do so. I think that the tactics used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces: destroying logistics and forcing "goodwill" (squeezing out Russian troops) will continue. We have the ability to keep all logistics chains 80 kilometres deep at the front and this is "death" for the aggressor's successful defence - they are critically dependent on railways, and this does not allow for manoeuvring reserves and quality planning of operations, even defensive ones. Ukraine will win, but it will be a victory obtained by sweat, blood, and hard work, and at the cost of heavy losses. However, for the enemy it will all be multiplied many times over," General Yahun summed up.

Caliber.Az