Will Macron and Putin rush to Armenia's help?
Time is passing, deadlines are pushing: anticipating a new Armenian tragedy

ANALYTICS  16 November 2022 - 18:10

In recent days, Yerevan has already openly embarked on the path of escalating the conflict with Baku, not only leading the negotiation process behind the scenes to an impasse, but also throwing openly destructive theses and claims on Karabakh into public space at all levels of government. In this connection, it is worthwhile recalling the recent statements made by the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, during an interview with CivilNet, as well as the accusations of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Twitter.

Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia said that "without the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or at least clarification of how it will be settled, it is impossible to enter a peace treaty with Azerbaijan".

In turn, Nikol Pashinyan accused the leadership of Azerbaijan "of terror against the civilian population of Armenia". He also stated, that "Azerbaijan calls Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh its citizens while at the same time shoots at them". Just earlier, Pashinyan compared Azerbaijan to a terrorist organization and said that Baku is preparing a "new genocide on the Armenian people" in Karabakh and at the borderline.

Such statements show that the political elite of Armenia is still making plans related to Karabakh and has not accepted the new reality that has changed the balance of power in the region.

It is clear that the defeat in the war against Azerbaijan was a blow to the national ego of Armenia: the years of the First Karabakh War, the almost three decades of occupation, and the "heroic epos on the modern history of the Armenian people" that was carefully crafted by the propagandists were all nullified within 44 days (of the war) and the fleeing of 10,000 deserters from Khankendi. Since then, two years have passed, during which the Azerbaijani army has taken all the important strategic heights in Karabakh and on the border with Armenia with the means of fighting yet sometimes merely by giving a soft kick of its heavy military boot.

Earlier, when Armenia occupied vast Azerbaijani territories, it had a fortified defence and occupied the best strategic positions - it did in fact have something to rely on in its demands during the bargaining process with Baku. But today the situation has changed so much in favour of Azerbaijan that there is no need for any bargaining regarding the principle. Armenia simply has nothing to offer to Azerbaijan. Armen Grigoryan, who is in charge of security structures in Pashinyan’s office, is well aware of that.

Pashinyan’s attempts to accuse Azerbaijan of "aggression" against Armenia do not stand up to its criticism either. For peace to prevail on our borders, only one thing is required – the unconditional, legally binding recognition by Armenia of Baku’s sovereignty over the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. Without any demagoguery on "guarantees of safety for the local population" – this does not relate to Yerevan any longer. And only then regional communications can be unblocked.

As for the words of the Armenian Prime Minister that "Azerbaijan calls the Armenians of Karabakh its citizens and at the same time shoots at them", here we also see a gross distortion of facts. Yes, Karabakh is home to an Armenian ethnic population, which Azerbaijan does in fact consider as its citizens. But at the same time elements of Armenian military formations and separatist structures still remain there, a violation of paragraph 4 of the Trilateral Statement from November 10, 2020. The moment they resort to armed provocations, they become a legitimate target for the Azerbaijani army. When they oppose the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan, they, again, become a legitimate target and must be neutralized.

It is obvious that these (armed) elements do not want to leave the territory of Azerbaijan, relying on the cover under the disguise of Russian peacekeepers. But it must also be understood that the Russian military in Karabakh is a temporary state, as well as the "Ruben Vardanyan" project implemented by the Kremlin. Neutralizing Vardanyan - both under the peacekeepers and without them - is technically quite simple, and it will certainly happen. Is it necessary to wait for this moment if offered the opportunity to leave?

By the way, talking about the trilateral statement: Nikol Pashinyan has apparently forgotten that he is, no matter how offensive it may sound to him, the defeated who asked Aliyev and Putin for permission not to sign that November document in front of the camera. Today, pushing the Karabakh issue once again, Pashinyan not only undermines the conditions of the past surrender, but also creates pre-requisites for the future. He makes a fatal mistake from the point of view of Armenian interests, because he unties Azerbaijan’s hands in order to put Zangazur, Goyche and historical Western Azerbaijan on the agenda from where the indigenous Azerbaijani populations had been driven out.

It may be assumed that the source of Nikol Pashinyan’s inspiration came from some verbal promises from the French leader Macron and the results of a private bilateral meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi. It was then that the Armenian Prime Minister sharpened his rhetoric. But how true is it to rely on external actors when you don’t have an army of your own? So far, everything is moving towards a scenario in which Armenians will come face-to-face with an Azerbaijan which is tired of the procrastinating implementation of the agreements. Conditions have been announced, deadlines have been set.

Armenia is no longer an enemy to be taken seriously by Azerbaijan. As it turned out, the world has changed, regional and global realities have changed, and now Armenians will, at best, might play the role of regional competitors. This is by no means an underestimation of the Armenian potential, but the objective reality is that Baku, following the results of the 44-day war and in the context of the ongoing processes in the world and the region, has entered a higher geopolitical league, and has set more global objectives for itself.

Yerevan is running out of time for reflection and decision-making. The new year is just around the corner, let’s hope it will not become another year of tragedy for artificial Armenian statehood.

Caliber.Az