"Not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary will be caught in Russia's crosshairs..."
Caliber.Az interview with Oleg Zhdanov
INTERVIEWS 17 November 2022 - 17:25
Matanat Nasibova Caliber.Az |
Caliber.Az had an interview with the Ukrainian military expert and army reserve colonel Oleg Zhdanov.
- Mr. Zhdanov, how do you think the retreat of Russian troops from Kherson will influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine? What contributed to this withdrawal in general?
- Even without Kherson, the strategic goal of this war remains unchanged - the destruction of Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation. The operational and strategic objectives change dramatically because the loss of the bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper River deprives the Russian side of the opportunity to conduct offensive operations in the direction of Odessa and Transnistria. That is, Moldova can breathe a sigh of relief and our right bank, the Black Sea coast, where the enemy was aspiring to, is also removed from the agenda today. Russia has retreated in order to retain some combat-worthy parts of its troops. Its retreat from the right bank was a matter of time. The enemy could hold this direction for a month at most because Ukraine controlled all this territory with its artillery fire. Literally every day we were taking out their logistical supplies and striking manpower and equipment. So from a military point of view, this decision of the Russian General Staff is correct and timely. They tried to preserve the most combat-ready and most numerous grouping of their troops in the whole theatre of military operations in Ukraine.
- Russian troops surrendered Kherson without fighting?
- The main part of the grouping left without fighting - covertly, there were no fierce battles. There was fighting to defeat the rearguard of Russian troops left on the right bank.
- What next? In which direction will the war unfold?
- The war is already unfolding in such a way that the Russian Federation is losing, big time. The further it goes, the more that loss becomes apparent, and the weaponry that is available, to the tune of tens of thousands of tanks, is technically defective. The Kremlin has tried to mobilize people, but has failed to attract even 300,000. This suggests that the mobilization system has run out of steam, and is no longer working. Ukraine is advancing along the front line, and we are going to press the enemy on the left bank. In parallel, we are moving towards Luhansk oblast, slowly but surely, and holding our ground in Donetsk oblast. The Russian side has lost more than 15 thousand soldiers in this direction and has advanced only 1-2 kilometres in four months. The war is stalled, and Russia is suffering enormous losses in manpower. Russians do not want to take the killed from our territory to hide this fact inside the country, not to send funeral certificates to people to avoid social unrest. We have everything littered with the bodies of killed Russian soldiers, we do not know where to put them. We don't want to bury them on our soil so that Russians won't ask to come to their graves later. We are ready to give them up. This is why the Russian side is upping the temperature, it badly needs a ceasefire to draw out this war. Everyone understands this, from the Pope, who considers the Russian people heroic, practically echoing Donald Trump's words, to petty politicians who are pro-Russian. Note, just a couple of hours after the G20 summit where Sergey Lavrov's failed speech took place, there were massive strikes on Ukrainian territory in excess of 90 missiles, two of which landed on Polish territory.
- So you claim that these two missiles that hit the territory of Poland were fired from the territory of the Russian Federation?
- Look, missiles from the C-300 complex have a self-destruct device. If it misses the target, it explodes in the air. It is obvious from the wreckage that these are the missiles that made up the bulk of the massive strike on Ukraine and were launched from the Black Sea.
The medium-range missiles could not miss up to 5.5 thousand kilometres and flew into Polish territory. This shows that the Russian Federation is raising the stakes and shaking NATO because it has been given red flags with nuclear weapons and cannot rattle them now - all countries are against the nuclear threat today.
If NATO swallows this incident and insists it was Ukraine's doing, then there will be further strikes. The Russian Federation will continue its mission, and I can even say that the Baltic States, Poland, and Hungary will be in the crosshairs. By the way, there was a second terrorist attack in Türkiye and I do not exclude that there may be a Russian trace, because it is more profitable for Moscow to rock Türkiye before the presidential elections. And if NATO had responded harshly, Putin would have immediately offered them a negotiation process. That is what he wants. He said that there was no need to turn the war into a world war because NATO joining the war would automatically turn it into a world war, i.e. let us urgently start negotiations.
- Yes, but Moscow has already said that negotiations are only possible on its terms...
- Yes, absolutely right. This is precisely why tensions are being raised so that NATO sits down at the negotiating table. Russia provokes Brussels and forces it to reciprocate and if the alliance responds in the same way then Putin sets conditions for negotiations. He gets it right, as in a chess game.
- Do you think Russia can still win this game?
- I think not. Because at the end of the day, the global community and the NATO member countries, most of whom are members of the G20, have the kind of leverage that can bring down the Russian economy and the entire financial system of the Russian Federation at once.
- And what is stopping them from doing that right now?
- For some reason, they are dragging their feet and getting caught up in the long game. This was evident from the recent statement by the White House, judging by which they will play for a long time. They can admit that it is a Soviet missile and was fired by Ukrainian SAMs. We will apologize and promise that we will not do it again and they will try to whittle down the scandal. But the next blow will follow.
- How long will the war in Ukraine last, considering the changing balance of forces?
- I think the war will last another six months. That is for sure. I believe that the US wants us to pull all the military potential out of Russia. And once Russia's military potential is exhausted, there will be a breakdown, and in two guises: either Putin will find himself facing a change of position, which would be political death for him, or there could be a palace coup. This, in my view, is exactly what the US efforts are aimed at. They don't want a blitzkrieg victory, nor do they want the Russian state and military machines to remain in more or less serviceable and operational condition.
- So it is possible to say that Ukraine is a bargaining chip for the USA in a big political game and is used to weaken Russia?
- Our country plays a dual role. Ukraine is the prize that must go to the winner because both Putin and the West are fighting for Ukraine. But the West is fighting with our hands and Putin with his own. Therefore, Ukraine is not a bargaining chip, but a prize and a tool, because the West has outplayed Putin. Yes, we are to some extent a tool in the hands of the West in terms of weakening Russia. But our goals with the West in this context are absolutely the same. We are fighting for independence and liberation of our territories, while the West aims at weakening Russia as much as possible and knocking it out of the Olympus of world politics. It is a third-world country that should not influence any global processes.
- Will Ukraine win this difficult war?
- Of course, because the West cannot lose. And this is our lifeline. Since the West is in it for Ukraine, it cannot lose to Russia. Otherwise, there will be a unipolar world. And in that case, a win for Russia could lead to a world nuclear war. If Putin is emboldened by his victory over Ukraine and an indirect victory over the West, he will start dictating his terms, and this could lead to a world catastrophe.
- Does the West need a free Ukraine?
- Of course, they do. Here the situation will be similar to that of Germany after World War II. Just remember what Germany was like in May 1945, and what the West made of West Germany. Nobody turned it into a colony or a metropolis. They wrote the Marshall Plan, invested in it, and implemented it. The same will happen here. Yes, we assume there will be spheres of influence of our Western partners in our economy, and there will be investments. But we will be living in the image and likeness of European countries, where the rule of law is mostly respected.
- So the integration of Ukraine into NATO will happen?
- I would not count on NATO, we can integrate into that military alliance, if only the Russian Federation falls apart. On the other hand, it is also clear that no one will cancel the fifth article of NATO's statute for the sake of Ukraine.
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