Two months to save Armenia's statehood
Time is running out...

ANALYTICS  18 November 2022 - 13:52

The Armenian leadership has resorted to twisting around, as it realised that the signing of the peace agreement is inevitable. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has recently managed to make several contradictory statements. His November 16 speech in the Armenian parliament was not an exception in this sense.

To recall, the other day on the air of the Public Television of Armenia, Pashinyan said that the international community, including Yerevan, recognises Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. "The positions of all countries are known. Armenia has also recognised that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. It did in 2007. How long can we not acknowledge this? The question is, do we want to see it or not? Maybe all our problems stem from the fact that we do not see it," Pashinyan said, stressing that there was no country that would not recognise Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and that "we should have no illusions".

But more revelations soon followed, with Pashinyan issuing an unexpected statement that went against the basic agreements reached in the Trilateral Statement of November 2020, and in general against the results of recent meetings of leaders in Brussels, Sochi, and Paris. In particular, he asserted that Armenia was supposedly ready for the opening of transport communications in the region and even suggested that the work of the commissions on both sides should be intensified. This seems to make sense. However, he went on to say that instead of a peace treaty, Armenia was considering signing a framework agreement, explaining that the border delimitation process could take several years.

"To this end, Yerevan is in favour of first demilitarising the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the withdrawal of troops of both sides, and taking the 1990 maps as the basis for defining the border for this purpose. Then deploy border guards and thus close the issue for the time being. Then sign a framework document and start delimitation, which may last for more than a year," Pashinyan said.

From bad to worse: Armenian PM once again brought up the "status" of Karabakh but clarified that Yerevan was supposedly not promoting the issue of status, but the possibility of ensuring the security and rights of Karabakh Armenians. He also said that Yerevan was waiting for Baku's response to its proposals submitted to Washington.

Generally, it can be concluded from the statements of the Armenian premier that Yerevan is trying once again to mislead the international community by empty promises and untrue stories and to protract the negotiation process for an indefinite period, to avoid signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan under any pretext. This is a cunning move by the Armenian leadership, which can in no way be called new, as it is all too familiar to the Azerbaijani side. Yerevan is ostensibly demonstrating its commitment to the stability and development of the region (opening up transport communications), but at the same time it is trying to insert "conditions of principle". Thus, it recently stated that "without the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or at least clarification of how it will be resolved, the conclusion of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is impossible". There is an effort to avoid signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

There is no doubt that Armenia has not come to terms with the new realities in the region and the changed balance of power, and is hoping to sneak the issue of "status" into the negotiation process, now under the pretext of "ensuring the security and rights of Armenians in Nagorny Karabakh".

In order to warn Yerevan not to make the same mistakes again, we recall several points in the failed policy of its leadership. First, Nikol Pashinyan signed Armenia's surrender act in November 2020, and this is the main factor that should guide Yerevan. Secondly, one way or another, Yerevan will have to sign a peace treaty with Baku, contrary to all the arguments that the Armenian prime minister voiced. And it is in Armenia's interests if Pashinyan signs the document within the time-frame indicated by Azerbaijan - by the end of this year. Otherwise, Baku will have to resort to more radical measures. No, it is not a threat, it is reality, which must be realised by our restless neighbours. Moreover, Azerbaijan is ready to provide Armenia with plenty of opportunities to break its political deadlock and economic isolation. And even somehow save face with its political leadership. But Baku's patience is not infinite, and Armenia has already had the opportunity to be convinced of this on the battlefield in the not-too-distant 2020.

Azerbaijan's "iron fist" is in its place and can once again drop with all its might where it is needed. If Yerevan forces Baku... In response to Pashinyan's vague statements about the so-called "status", Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly made clear that Armenians living in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan will have no status and no special privileges, but will have the same rights and obligations as other citizens of the country. So any special status for persons of Armenian nationality must be forgotten. The Azerbaijani head of state noted more than once that Armenians living in Karabakh must understand that their future depends only on their integration into Azerbaijani society and that otherwise, peaceful coexistence is impossible.

Pashinyan's statements on peace are a kind of manipulation, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had to state again when he received a delegation headed by the European Union Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership, Dirk Schuebel, which included responsible officials from the EU and several Eastern Partnership member states on November 17.

"You mentioned your visit to Armenia and that you had received a message of peace from the Armenian leadership. We have heard these messages throughout the years of occupation. However, they were not sincere. We wanted peace too, but we wanted our lands back. They wanted peace without returning our lands. That is the difference. So we had to solve the conflict by force and then by political means. I consider their talk of peace today as a kind of manipulation," the head of state said.

The Azerbaijani President directly warned that if Armenia wants peace, it must stop using dangerous bellicose rhetoric. "They want to include issues related to the Armenian minority in Azerbaijan in the peace agreement. This is not going to happen. It is not possible. We will not agree to it," he stressed.

"For thirty years we have not had peace, and Armenia must not forget how it ended. We must measure their actions not by their words, but by their deeds. Because their words contradict their deeds or plans," Aliyev added.

Especially for the representatives of the "Old World", he stressed: "I think it is important that Armenia states openly what it really wants. If they want to talk about the rights and security of Armenians in Karabakh, this will not work. We are ready to talk about this with Armenians living in Karabakh, but not with people sent by Moscow, such as Vardanyan, who has billions of dollars stolen from the Russian people in his pockets. He was sent there from Moscow with a very clear agenda".

Accordingly, the problem of ensuring the security and rights of the Karabakh Armenians, which Pashinyan so vociferously claimed, is an internal policy issue of Azerbaijan, not of Armenia at all. Azerbaijan does not interfere in Armenia's internal affairs, for example, when it comes to the rights of Yezidis living in this country. And this is logical. However, it is in Armenia that the rights of Yezidis, who live in unfavorable conditions and have great difficulties with employment, are severely violated. Therefore, Pashinyan's words about the "rights of Karabakh Armenians" are another political maneuver, behind which lies an attempt to resume discussion of those issues that have long been taken out beyond the negotiation process. For Baku, it is evident that the Armenian leadership is engaging in a political scam and is trying to stall the negotiations, which are almost in the active phase. In this regard, the President of Azerbaijan said in a recent phone conversation with the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, that despite the efforts and negotiations being conducted in this direction, the controversial statements made by the Armenian leadership in recent days have had a negative impact on the normalisation of relations between the two countries and the promotion of a peace agenda. At the same time, given the US calls for Yerevan to maintain the momentum of negotiations with Baku, Pashinyan's desperate attempts to make a "wrong turn" are leading Armenia towards an inevitable disaster that will finally nullify its chances of further existence. In the less than two months left before the end of the year, Pashinyan will somehow have to solve the main problem of Armenian statehood. Time is running out...

Caliber.Az