Expert: Russia's nuclear strike on Ukraine remains possible
Vitaly Kulik hosted by Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  28 November 2022 - 15:06

Caliber.Az had an interview with Vitaly Kulik, director of the Ukrainian Centre for Civil Society Studies.

- After the liberation of Kherson by the Ukrainian troops, Russia started evacuating the population of some Crimean settlements. Does this mean the prospect of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the peninsula?

- So far we see Russian troops preparing defensive lines in northern Crimea, forming fortifications, and announcing the evacuation of populations from settlements on the administrative border of Crimea and the Kherson region. I suppose there is every reason to believe that the Russians will not hold the rest of the Kherson Oblast either.

Despite a reinforced grouping of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region and the presence of natural obstacles, the Ukrainian army is able to successfully strike bases, troop concentrations, staff, and most importantly, roads in the occupied part of the Kherson region. The AFU intends to take control of the "land corridor" from occupied Crimea to the Donbas, which the Russians are now using. Ukrainian troops can control all of this territory and are already inflicting significant damage on the Russian army. The Russian Armed Forces are currently shelling Kherson, which they left behind. These are practically terrorist strikes - not against military infrastructure, but against residential areas and civilian objects.

The AFU has undertaken a number of maneuvers, which may indicate that despite the winter period, a new operation to liberate the remaining part of the Kherson region may begin as soon as possible. Forcing the Dnieper will be difficult, but as long as there is no ice, it is more than realistic.

It will simply not be possible for the Russian army to hold its position along the current line. Its soldiers will have to retreat to Crimea. I think that first, the Russian command will try to withdraw troops to a line that will allow them to keep control of the land corridor for some time. There will be fierce fighting there. And after the defeat on that line, they will close in Crimea.

- My question may sound naive: can Russia voluntarily return Crimea to Ukraine?

- Russia does not want to give anything back and will not. We will have to return Crimea with weapons. We hope that the Russians will flee at the first blows, but we know from the history of past centuries that military operations in Crimea require non-standard solutions and huge sacrifices.

For Putin, the loss of Crimea is a symbolic blow. He will make everything he can to prevent the exodus of his army from the peninsula. Moscow will not give Crimea away just like that. I do not exclude the possibility that the Kremlin will try to threaten Ukraine with nuclear weapons and may even use them, although outside of Crimea.

I also believe that the de-occupation of Crimea will most likely occur after our troops push the Russian army out of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. If the Russians close in Crimea, they will be left with only the Crimean bridge as the "road of life". Panic and a humanitarian crisis will ensue there. Ukraine views the Crimean bridge as a legitimate military target, as do the military bases on the occupied peninsula. There is a good chance that we will be able to destroy this bridge and accelerate the Russian exodus from Crimea.

But there is also a likely scenario in which Crimea is "left for later" and the AFU concentrates its efforts on the liberation of Donbas. The dynamics of offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast indicate that the next "big operation" will take place there.

- What strategic value does Crimea have for Ukraine?

- Strategically for Ukraine, Crimea means control over a large part of the Black Sea. When Russian troops withdraw from Crimea, they will have to relocate their fleet (which fires Kalibers at us) to Novorossiysk. At any rate, the part of the fleet that they will retain because enemy ships are priority targets for the AFU when attacking the peninsula.

Ukraine does not have a military fleet, but Kyiv is actively developing a fleet of naval drones. By engaging with Western partners, Ukraine will not only provide transport corridors for goods, particularly "grain corridors," but also military convoys. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will begin to hunt for Russian vessels.

Among other things, Crimea is also important to Ukrainians as a symbol. Putin started the war with Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. It is his greatest "geopolitical/historical victory". The myths of personal autocracy were built around Crimea. If Crimea is lost, the Kremlin's entire ideological construct will rupture, if not collapse altogether.

- Is the war expected to escalate to a large scale or will minor battles continue?

- Some media outlets are now talking about the likelihood of achieving some kind of "Korean version" of freezing the war along the existing front lines. Or about fixing the front and waging a low-intensity war, without large offensive operations. This is the scenario Russia wants very much. The Kremlin is throwing this proposal to its Western partners in various ways. Massive missile strikes and the use of Iranian drones on the energy system are aimed at forcing Kyiv to negotiate. However, Ukraine's military and political leadership have a clear understanding that for Moscow, any respite is a new offensive next spring/summer. Russia is running out of resources, its army is not ready to fight, and discontent and aggression are growing among the population. All this makes Putin's power unstable. I don't mean a revolution or a palace coup (I don't believe that), but riots and pogroms, which will eventually lead to the collapse of Russia.

If Putin sees that the Ukrainian army does not reduce its pressure and advances to Crimea or successfully liberates Donbas, he may try to launch a new invasion from Belarus to Kyiv and in the Volyn direction in order to draw back the AFU from the east and south, interrupt arms supplies and so on. An attempt by the Russian army to counterattack in the Zaporizhzhya direction, where enemy forces have been accumulating lately, is also not ruled out.

Therefore, in my opinion, a low-grade war is unlikely. On the contrary, there are all the conditions for Kyiv or Moscow to try to resolve the situation in their favor by launching a major offensive. Ukraine, unlike Russia, is not interested in freezing the war and will attack, but when the situation becomes critical for it, Moscow may risk going on the offensive.

And one more important aspect. In my opinion, in this war, we have not yet approached the highest point of confrontation. We are only witnessing the second phase. At the point of maximum aggravation, any option is possible, and a nuclear strike is not ruled out. But the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine or outside Ukraine, in neutral waters, to illustrate the intent and pressure on the West, will not lead to our capitulation. This is Kyiv's consolidated position, and it is fully endorsed by Ukrainian society. We are fighting a war for our physical existence as a nation. And the end of this war is possible only as a result of our victory.

Caliber.Az