Is it possible to resume monopolistic Russian mediation?
Farhad Mammadov's opinion

POLITICS  29 November 2022 - 13:31

Farhad Mammadov, political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, ponders in his Telegram Channel whether it's possible to resume the Russian monopolistic mediation.

"The past two years of negotiations recalled the events that unfolded in the international arena before, during, and after the 44 days of the war...

Before the war, Russia played the first fiddle in the negotiations, during the war, the US stepped up and even announced a breakthrough (Scandinavian peacekeepers), but at the last moment Russia resumed its participation and after the 44-day war had the full initiative. Similarly, after a certain period of passivity and observation, in the last month, after EU and US activity, Moscow resumed its mediation, using the French bluntness and activating its resources "on the ground".

During these two years, the logic of the Russian negotiation process has been broken: the peace treaty, which Moscow had intended to be at the end of the process, has been brought up to date. Russia is actualizing the topic of the peace treaty in parallel with the topic of unblocking, gradually making unblocking a priority. The President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia after their meeting in Sochi also mentioned the topic of unblocking.

During these two years, Azerbaijan and Armenia have prioritized other the following topics:

- For Azerbaijan, along with the peace treaty, the Lachin corridor and the withdrawal of the remnants of Armenian forces from Karabakh is a priority.

- For Armenia, the priority is the topic of the border, the rejection of the 'unhindered' Zangazur corridor, and keeping the "status" issue on the agenda.

- For Russia itself the priority is to keep leadership in negotiations - trilateral format, Zangazur corridor, while maintaining its exclusivity in the Lachin corridor, the extension of the RPC's mandate.

However!!!

Time is lost! And we should, as Russian President Putin said, 'go for compromises'.

What compromises is Russia ready to make since it is a party to the process?

The deep involvement of the USA, the EU, and France in the process should also be taken into account. It is not for nothing that special representatives of the EU and the USA visited Baku in the past three days... Even if Macron wimps out the meeting in Brussels, there is the USA and Charles Michel himself who can simply fly to Tbilisi and organize the meeting there.

Over the last month, Russia has used all its potential to put pressure on both Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the pressure has gone to waste and has had the opposite effect.

- The 'Vardanyan project' in Karabakh has already toughened Baku's rhetoric with regard to the RPC.

- Armenia derailed the final documents of CSTO, actually sabotaging the CSTO mission to Armenia, and thus, for the Armenian public opinion, 'Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves' from the EU mission is the only international reaction…

That is, Russia will have to take into account the priority expectations of Baku and Iravan in order to achieve a breakthrough with Russian participation.

What will it propose?!

A peace treaty with clear wording and commitments (to cover the topic of border security). This is not the text of the treaty worked out in Moscow, and Russia will have to guarantee the draft, which is being discussed in the bilateral format in the parts that involve guarantees 'on the ground'.

Unblocking with Russian participation - as a guarantor of security along the corridors, but not at the entrances and exits.

The South Caucasus has become one of the most predictable regions after the war in Ukraine and this should be appreciated, to create additional opportunities:

- Trade with all countries in the region has increased (by 75% with Armenia, by 30% with Azerbaijan, and by 50% with Georgia)

- Growth in trade turnover implies finding mechanisms of interaction in the financial sector

- Azerbaijan and Armenia have not voted on resolutions against Russia in these months

- Ready for transport communication projects, which are important for Russia

- Cooperation in the energy sector - Armenia has a nuclear power plant, Azerbaijan has gas and possible investments in Russia.

One thing is clear, the public opinion in Azerbaijan is heated, and it's not quiet in Armenia too... All these actions of Russia with deadlines, Vardanyans, alleys of glory, etc. have the opposite effect than to instill fear.

Otherwise, changing the situation "on the ground" will change the configuration that has developed since the 44-day war. As a result, the only advantage of Russia's presence 'on the ground' will lose its meaning," he wrote.

Caliber.Az