"Unlike Azerbaijan, Georgia has no such strong ally as Türkiye"
Mamuka Areshidze in touch with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  09 December 2022 - 11:23

Caliber.Az had an interview with well-known Georgian political scientist and expert in Caucasus Mamuka Areshidze.

- Mr. Areshidze, how would you comment on the recent statement of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili who said that Kyiv plans to drag Georgia into war and open "the second front"? How well-founded are such assumptions?

- It can be explained in the following way. If we talk about Ukraine's policy exclusively in this context, then Kyiv would like to involve not only Georgia but also all countries that, relatively speaking, are on its side, including NATO members, in the military campaign as much as possible. Ukraine wants to expand the war front, and this is absolutely logical and understandable. Some Ukrainian politicians have certain objective claims to the Georgian authorities, coming from personal sympathies and antipathies. Some Georgian politicians are under the influence of the former members of the United National Movement, the opposition Georgian party, on the one hand, who are now in Ukraine, and in very high positions in the state structure, and on the other hand, under the influence of those political forces in the West, who support the idea of a general war against Russia. However, it is not the collective West, but specific political forces.

As for Garibashvili's statements, there is a grain of truth in them, but it is the speech of a politician focused on the domestic audience. Pay attention to the following nuances: Kyiv won't let the German president into the country, believing the Germans aren't helping them enough; Ukrainians criticize the collective West because it hasn't closed the skies over Ukraine.

- Do you mean that in Ukraine the principle "He who is not with us is against us" prevails?

- Not exactly. They want the support to be much stronger. This is even more evident with regard to Georgia.

- Just because Georgia has its own disputes with Russia?

- For Georgia, Russia is an occupier, because it seized Georgian territories, and this is unequivocally true. The Georgian authorities have such a position, but they do not want a repeat of the events of 2008. On this basis, they try to act very cautiously, although in all international forums they support Ukraine by sending it humanitarian aid and non-military products. Several thousand Ukrainian refugees are now on the territory of Georgia, who are provided with all the necessary conditions and social protection. However, the Georgian authorities do not intend to have a conflict with Russia, because even at the beginning of this war we were very much pushed towards a military operation against the separatist regions - both towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But the authorities did everything to prevent this from happening.

- If Mikhail Saakashvili had been in power, how would Georgia's relations with Russia have developed, and would the question of military support for Ukraine have been on the state's agenda?

- Georgia now, as well as during the time when Saakashvili was in power, does not have such military means to provide them to Ukraine. Military assistance implies the transfer of weapons, and we don't have that much. However, if Saakashvili had been in power, a demonstration of military force in the direction of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would certainly have taken place. You can give the example of Azerbaijan, which returned its lands militarily, but, unfortunately, we do not have such a powerful ally as Türkiye. So for Georgia, any military activity towards the separatist regions is definitely counterproductive.

- So Georgia does not count at all on military support of the West? But just yesterday the Secretary General of NATO said that NATO does not forget Georgia.

- We have been hearing the statements that the doors of NATO are open for Georgia for more than twenty years, as well as the fact that we can join the alliance "in the nearest future". But as you understand, this time is not coming yet. But even if Georgia joins NATO, it is not worth resorting to military activity.

- How do you see the current Georgian-Azerbaijani relations?

- The current geopolitical situation has given Azerbaijan and Georgia an opportunity to take their relations to a completely different level. This was especially confirmed by the recent visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Georgia, as well as the results of his meeting with our Prime Minister Garibashvili.

If we separately consider the geopolitical factor that gave impetus to the development of relations between our countries, it is obvious that Europe very much needs an energy supply, and not only in gas and oil but also in electricity. As I understand it, at this stage Azerbaijan and Georgia are jointly creating a new energy corridor, providing the supply of electricity to Europe. It is about 1, 400 megawatts, which is planned to be delivered through Türkiye. It is also planned to lay an energy cable under the Black Sea to bring additional energy from the region to Eastern Europe. At the current stage, it is a question of power generation in Azerbaijan, in the future, Georgia will join it as well. And it suggests that Baku and Tbilisi will make efforts to take advantage of its growing geopolitical importance and find a new way to supply Europe with energy. The idea of laying an energy cable under the Black Sea - from Georgia to southeastern Europe has been considered for several years. But since European energy security has become more than urgent against the background of Russia's war in Ukraine, this issue is becoming quite acute. Therefore, I believe that this fact will give a new impetus to Azerbaijani-Georgian relations, which will contribute to the strengthening of regional ties between the parties in the future.

- What do you think about the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and the prospects for a peace treaty?

- Unfortunately, I don't see the prospect of a peace treaty at this stage. Russia and the other major players involved in South Caucasus politics will do everything so that the agreement will not be signed. Armenia opposes the point about the opening of the Zangazur corridor, so I think that some external players will demand that Armenia implement that point, and others, on the contrary, will prevent it. The big players always aim to create conflict situations, hoping to then create conditions to freeze or activate them. That is why I have the impression that a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan is unlikely to be signed at this stage, in the current geopolitical situation.

Azerbaijan is now in a better situation than Armenia. First, because it is a victor in the war, and second, because, on the one hand, the West needs it, and on the other, it has an alliance agreement with Russia. Nevertheless, only Türkiye remains the most faithful ally of Baku.

- Is your forecast concerning Armenian-Turkish relations also pessimistic?

- Türkiye has a very flexible foreign policy, thanks to which it manages to maintain a balance both with Russia and the West. Ankara is very active not only in regional policy, in the Black Sea region, in the Middle East, but also in the Mediterranean region, and this once again shows that President Erdoğan plays a very skillful political game. This also applies to relations with Armenia. However, it is hard to predict the result of this game. Much will depend on the results of the Turkish elections in 2023.

- Will Armenia leave the CSTO?

- I do not think it is possible since Armenia has no other alternatives. The CSTO summit held recently in Yerevan confirmed that the organization has suffered a fiasco, which was an embarrassment for Russia. Therefore, Moscow will do its best to keep Yerevan within its sphere of influence.

- The expert community periodically speculates about the possible withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gyumri. What do you think about it?

- I do not think so. The Russian base is not going anywhere, on the contrary, it is being expanded. There is an opinion in the Russian influential circles that the main mistake of Moscow is not the invasion of Ukraine, but its ill-conceived policy of allowing Türkiye to return to the South Caucasus as a military-political player after a 100-year gap. Therefore, I believe that the Russian base will not leave the territory of Armenia and will remain there as a deterrent to Türkiye.

- So why is Russia defeated in Ukraine?

- I think that the reason for the unsuccessful military action in Ukraine, in addition to the lack of resources, is the weak moral-psychological attitude of Russian servicemen. Under such conditions, it is difficult to win a war, and no Iranian missiles will help.

Caliber.Az