Forestall & neutralize
Azerbaijani political analyst's opinion

INTERVIEWS  09 January 2023 - 17:41

The talks between Baku and Yerevan are again undergoing turbulence, fuelled by the new Armenian propaganda hysteria about the protests of Azerbaijani activists on the Lachin road. Seeing this as a new excuse to avoid substantive negotiations, the authorities and revanchist forces in Yerevan have launched an anti-Azerbaijani ruckus in various international venues, once again dragging the situation into a deadlock.

However, Azerbaijan is used to getting out of difficult situations, since our country has and will have two advantages over all Armenians: "Iron Fist" and Baku's political standing in the international arena. What dynamics, however, should be expected from Azerbaijani-Armenian relations in the coming year 2023? Will it be possible to break the senseless obstinacy of Yerevan on the way to peace and finally dispose of the separatist clique of Moscow's "envoy" Vardanyan so that, theoretically, ethnic Armenians of Karabakh can become holders of Azerbaijani passports and citizenship?

In any case, despite the loud statements of Armenian politicians accusing Baku of creating a mythical "humanitarian catastrophe", Prime Minister Pashinyan's New Year speech expressed a mood quite unconvincing and he did not mention the notorious "status".

Pashinyan stressed that Armenia had been left without allies in the region and that the ambitions of Armenians were hard to satisfy since the situation was not the same. As the premier noted, "Our security allies have left us alone, preferring to remain in the status of a passive observer," and on that basis, he hinted that the citizens of the country should prepare for the inevitable if Armenia does not want to lose its statehood altogether. And indeed, you can stubbornly yell and say that you do not agree and that "freedom cannot be taken away", but reality dictates its course. So it is not only the prime minister who is clear - Karabakh must finally become Azerbaijani and a peace treaty must be signed once and for all. Otherwise, the patient Baku will use harsher methods.

And despite the loud statements of the Armenians about some kind of "condemnation" of Azerbaijan's actions by some countries, in reality, things are much simpler. The situation is fundamentally different from when, twenty years ago, the world reacted sympathetically to anti-Azerbaijani demarches by the Armenian lobby abroad. Now, a separate UN meeting on the "blockade" of the Lachin road, organized by the same lobby and supported by some French politicians, has yielded no results whatsoever and, moreover, has further tarnished the image of the Yerevan authorities.

In this context, one thing is clear: any Armenian games of "humanitarian crises" and "ethnic cleansing" in Karabakh are no longer working - the international community has learned the handwriting of Armenian information provocations over thirty years and knows their value.

According to Azerbaijani diplomat and political scientist Fikret Sadikhov, Azerbaijan has a number of indisputable advantages in the dynamics of the political situation in 2023. As he noted in an interview with Caliber.Az, Baku has clear strategic goals and priorities in foreign policy, following which the state will act in 2023.

"I think that this year the strategic task will still be to force Armenia to peace, to sign a peace agreement, to delimit borders. But at the same time, active diplomatic work will be carried out to reflect foreign policy pressure, and neutralize those external players who, acting in their own interests, without understanding what is happening in the region, are trying to dictate some of their conditions to us," the political scientist said.

One of the main tasks, according to him, is the full implementation of all items of the joint statement signed on November 10, 2020, and all its provisions.

"This includes the opening of the Zangazur corridor because today we are required to allegedly 'unblock', 'open' the Lachin road, which in fact is fully open, but why no one recalls the corridor that connects Azerbaijan and its mainland part with Nakhchivan. This is a very important issue, which must find a solution," the expert stressed.
But Azerbaijan's main priority for all time, he believes, "is peace and security in the South Caucasus region, and we will do everything necessary to bring stability and peace to our region at last."

The expert believes that the position of Türkiye, which is also involved in the negotiation process with Armenia, as well as proposals for the peaceful settlement with Armenia, voiced by Baku, contribute to this.

According to Sadikhov, an important task for the country in 2023 will be the neutralization of attempts to make "victims" of the ethnic Armenian minority in Karabakh.

"We are already doing everything today to prove the opposite, to prove that all those who live in the Karabakh region are full citizens of Azerbaijan, and if they obey the norms and laws of our Constitution, they will be provided with all the benefits that every citizen of Azerbaijan is provided with.

On the whole, of course, there is a huge amount of work to be done to repel and forestall the actions of our country's adversaries far beyond its borders. These are various international structures, these are leading states where Azerbaijanophobia is still thriving. And I think that not only our diplomats but also our scientists, experts, and journalists should be involved in this work. This is one of the important directions that should help to withstand the pressure brought upon us by these forces. I think it is in our power and we will do everything to implement this political and diplomatic line," Sadikhov summed up.

Caliber.Az