"Message was sent, but it was not heard by Armenia's elites"
Kirill Koktysh on Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  11 January 2023 - 14:42

Yerevan is ready to sell itself urgently, but at a higher price – this is about how you can specify Armenia's current foreign policy, primarily its behind-the-scenes actions. In general, it appears that an awkward multi-move is being attempted. Despite the external demonstration of Yerevan's political course towards Washington and the apparent cooling of relations with Russia, sometimes as acute as possible, as during the open anti–Russian rally in Gyumri or yesterday's [January 10] completely un-allied statements by [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan on the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], it seems that Yerevan has not yet finally decided on the task of who will drive their "honour" for a long time and profitably. And it may happen that all the external arrogant, flippant attitudes and curtsies of Yerevan to the United States are just a game to squeeze new preferences from the old overlord – the Kremlin. Having taken the dialogue with Russia to a complete political ultimatum, Yerevan, having received its own, will at some point begin to be nice to Moscow again. Pashinyan's ability to sharply change his mind cannot be taken away from him.

Nevertheless, a number of Russian experts consider that Moscow will somehow prevent Armenia from becoming a NATO springboard and will make every effort to do so or may take some special measures. However, as Caliber.Az has predicted more than once, Armenia, in its active attempts to flirt with the United States and France in order to change the “roof”, risks being left with nothing at all, bringing relations with Russia to a critical level and simultaneously receiving a kick from the West. Yerevan and Washington have already gone through such a period of relations. And Yerevan and Washington have already experienced such a period of relations. After all, it is quite obvious that the United States is building relations with Armenia not out of any solid political and economic motives, as is the case with Azerbaijan, but solely in order to undermine Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. Unlike the unique energy and transit opportunities, as well as the political weight in the region, which Azerbaijan is interested in the West, Armenia cannot boast of such advantages.

Moreover, Yerevan's active cooperation with Tehran looks toxic to the West and does not add points to it. And apparently, now Armenia, where this is also well understood, despite all the external troubles and the anti-Russian grin, is actively participating in behind-the-scenes bidding with Russia, which, in turn, continues to increase pressure on Yerevan. And this is very clearly evidenced by some recent political statements.

The Union State, which includes the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, lacks a third country. This was recently stated by Belarus Ambassador to Armenia Alexander Konyuk at the annual meeting of the Eurasian Expert Club and the conference "Current trends in the development of integration processes in the post-Soviet space".

"I have been monitoring and watching how our Armenian brothers react, and they have supported me," the diplomat said, adding that the Union State will develop. The ambassador also spoke about the military support provided by the Russian Federation to its allies in the example of the Republic of Belarus.

"After Putin's arrival, the S-400 and Iskander air defence systems were put on alert. Moreover, Russia is helping to train the crews of combat aircraft that carry special weapons," Alexander Konyuk said.

Interestingly, Armenian Security Council Secretary Grigoryan reacted to this statement quite quickly, but in a very negative way. "The Constitution of the Republic of Armenia has declared Armenia a sovereign state, and Armenia will continue to remain a sovereign state. Our whole mission is also to protect the sovereignty of Armenia," Grigoryan stressed. According to him, the Union State is a violation of sovereignty, since it is sovereignty that is being eliminated in the first place. "I am sure that the democratic processes in Armenia definitely limit the possibility of even discussing this issue," he said.

And then it's quite interesting: Grigoryan bluntly reproached Moscow and Minsk for serious pressure. Speaking about the statement of the Belarus ambassador, Grigoryan also said that the pressure on Armenia "comes from here", noting that it can also acquire a military character. "You noted the ambassador's statement about the Union State. Naturally, the pressure on Armenia comes from here. When the democracy and the democratic system of Armenia resist this, it receives the pressure of a different kind, in a military form," Grigoryan said.

At the same time, according to one of the influential Belarus experts, political scientist, MGIMO [Moscow State Institute of International Relations] professor Kirill Koktysh, sovereignty in the modern world is guaranteed not by independence, but rather by interdependence. At least, according to him, "this is absolutely true for small states that do not have nuclear weapons and a self-sufficient economy". Proceeding from this position, Koktysh is sure that most countries in the world have a constant need to guarantee this sovereignty through contacts, interactions, and interdependencies built with large centres of power. Therefore, he believes, the Union State is, for example, a guarantee of sovereignty for Belarus and a format for ensuring it, especially since it provides an "equal and interesting partnership".

"Armenia was asked to break this vicious circle – at least at the level of ambassadors, to think about its real sovereignty, because to say that recently, during Pashinyan's time in power, this sovereignty has strengthened is to sin against the truth. The message was sent, but, apparently, it was not heard by Armenia's elites. But in any case, this is not an official proposal – this is the ambassador's opinion, which was broadcast and was voiced," the Belarus political scientist noted.

As for relations with Azerbaijan, in my opinion, both Belarus and Russia have a deep degree of mutual understanding, constructive interaction, understanding of mutual benefit and commonality of basic strategic interests with Baku. At least, this commonality of goals has often been implemented in practice.

"This was implemented despite the fact that Azerbaijan focuses not only on Russia, it is one of the few CIS states that try to balance between the centres of power," the political scientist noted. According to him, " [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev shows the highest political class and implements the situation."

"One way or another, we can say that there are no problems with Azerbaijan in the Belarusian and Russian directions, and personal contacts of the heads of state guarantee this. A lot is being solved manually – I mean the relations of Ilham Aliyev with Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko," Koktysh stressed.

According to him, Armenia is also trying to balance, but with a much higher level of risks.

"And if Azerbaijan chooses Türkiye and Russia, and is also very careful about the Western direction, then Pashinyan, on the contrary, relies largely on Europe, the United States, and in this regard, the paradigm that the West sometimes implements may arise – it is an alliance with the elites at the expense of their own societies. This is when the elites will be fine and well, including in terms of the safety of their lives, property, and guarantees of interests, but their societies will pay for it. And the risks of this in relation to Armenia under Pashinyan, it must be admitted, remain quite high," the Belarus expert summed up.

Caliber.Az