US aims to turn Ukraine into a second Afghanistan for Russia
Shereshevskiy's forecast

ANALYTICS  16 January 2023 - 11:36

The media mulls the question of whether the AFU will receive the German "Leopard-2" tanks or not. However, the discussion about the heavy German tanks is secondary. A few dozen or even a hundred "Leopard-2" tanks (hardly anyone will provide Ukraine with more) will not change the state of affairs. Europe does not have the necessary stocks of weapons and ammunition. The key to solving the problem lies with the United States, which has about 3,000 Abrams tanks in its stockpiles in addition to the 3,000 in service with its army. However, the US has so far refused to supply Ukraine with tanks. But tanks are only part of the problem.

After the "Russian regroupings" (as the Russian Federation officially calls it) in Kherson and Kharkiv region, the US has reduced the supply of shells to the AFU three to four times, depriving Ukraine of further offensive operations and claiming that their (America's) shell stocks are "depleting". This claim is untrue.

As the US-based Foreign Policy reported the other day, there are 3 million cluster munitions in US stockpiles designed to hit enemy armoured vehicles and manpower. And we are not talking about an abstract enemy. This huge stock of shells (AFU, at the maximum estimates, spent 300 thousand shells for 2 months during the offensive operations in September and October) was specially created by the US in the 1980s for the purpose of destruction of the USSR, in case of the latter breaks through into Western Europe (about a million soldiers and officers, several tens of thousands of tanks). DPICM cluster munitions were exactly what was intended to eliminate large concentrations of equipment and manpower in order to level out the enemy's numerical advantage. "Every fourth [artillery] projectile kills someone. I think DPICM will show maybe 20 times more than that," said Dan Rice, president of Thayer Leadership, a leaders development organisation that is also an advisor to Ukraine's military chief. - You will see [if Ukraine gets] DPICM effectiveness and efficiency, which will also affect enemy morale.

In other words, the stockpile of shells aimed to win World War III, specifically designed to fight the Soviet (Russian) military and equipment, is intact in US warehouses. If Washington had wanted the AFU to win, it would have increased the supply of shells after Kharkiv and Kherson. But the US did exactly the opposite, depriving Kyiv of the opportunity to advance. However, by leaving the AFU on starvation rations, they allowed the pendulum to swing in the other direction.

The Biden administration does not need a Ukrainian victory because the Americans are afraid of irritating the Kremlin, which possesses nuclear weapons - as the leading American publications constantly report, sending signals to the Kremlin and pointing out Washington's caution. But in the same way, the US does not need a Russian victory. They fear the former, as they themselves keep saying in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, explaining that it is important not to annoy the Kremlin: "What if Moscow loses its nerve?" And they fear the second one for obvious reasons - it would be a deafening blow to Western politicians. In addition, the defeat of the AFU and the West would signal a PRC attack on the island of Taiwan, which would have disastrous consequences for the entire international architecture created by American efforts in East Asia: the states of this region, convinced of the US helplessness and fear, would withdraw into Beijing's custody.

Now, in Soledar, the pendulum has swung the other way - the Ukrainian shell famine is taking its toll. And it looks like a big US aid package is coming to Ukraine again - Bradley light tanks, 18 heavy guns, 70,000 shells, and maybe even the AFU will have heavy tanks in small numbers. However, it is likely that in case of hypothetical successes of the AFU, the US will again cut off their supply of shells.

The bloody pendulum could swing from side to side for years if the US maintains its current view of the conflict. As Lloyd Austin, head of the US Department of Defence, noted, the US goal is "to force the Russian Armed Forces to suffer such losses that they can no longer conduct operations similar to the Ukrainian one". But that does not mean that the US wants a quick and crushing victory for the AFU. They do not want any such thing. Their goal is to create a second Afghanistan for Russia, only on a larger scale.

Against this background, arms deliveries to Ukraine from other countries, in particular supplies of Leopards from Poland or Germany, or deliveries of cluster munitions, drones, armoured personnel carriers, and other weapons from Türkiye do become important. Theoretically, these deliveries could create conditions for the AFU to conduct major offensive operations. We do not know the whole story. However, none of these countries appears to have the ammunition supplies the AFU needs, so the keys to the situation remain in the hands of the US.

Caliber.Az