Pashinyan may end up losing Moscow's trust while failing to win over West
Stanislav Mitrakhovich shares his views with Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  19 January 2023 - 18:52

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has done everything to make France the overseer and savior of the country, says Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and researcher at the Financial University under the Russian government.

Commenting on the internal political situation in Armenia and prospects of Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, Stanislav Mitrakhovich told Caliber.Az that despite the significant likelihood of new hostilities, "it does not mean that the existing risk will surely be realized. Rather, both sides will prepare militarily in anticipation of a possible escalation."

The expert believes that a discussion has now unfolded in the domestic political field of Armenia on how to simultaneously realize the country's strategic goals and use the opportunities to rely on both Russia and the West.

"Obviously, it is very difficult to put this plan into practice, given the bitter conflict between Russia and the West. As you know, there is a proxy war going on between them on the territory of Ukraine. Armenia, which on the one hand is trying to please the collective West and on the other hand is trying to squeeze some more resources out of the interaction (or its imitation) with Russia, in this situation finds it difficult to keep a balance between these positions.

Nevertheless, Nikol Pashinyan did everything to ensure that France become the overseer and savior of the country. Hence all sorts of anti-Azerbaijani plots, which periodically appear in France, of course at the behest of the Armenia-oriented diaspora and sympathetic politicians and public figures. But the fact is that there are no French peacekeepers on the ground. In addition, there is a big question about the extent to which Paris is prepared to stand up for Armenia in the event of renewed hostilities. In other words, Pashinyan may end up in a situation where he will be unable to cooperate with Moscow, completely losing its trust, while failing to win over the West. This is the Armenian leadership's rather difficult dilemma.

Pashinyan's strategy would make sense if, so to speak, French President Emmanuel Macron or some other European leader more explicitly supported Armenia than until now. But since we have not seen this so far, the actions of the Armenian authorities do not look very successful, to put it mildly. In addition, for Europe, which is now trying to close itself off from trade with Russia as much as possible, Azerbaijan as a hydrocarbon exporting country is important. In this situation, Azerbaijan is very necessary for Europe, and it would be an extremely irrational decision for the EU to quarrel with Baku. It follows that Europe will not support Armenia more extensively - it is just strategically unwise to dispute with both Russia and Azerbaijan, which are major gas suppliers," believes our interlocutor.

But the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, according to Mitrakhovich, will continue for some time.

"The borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be defined later, they may even be revised.  In the settlement issue, much will depend on several factors. For example, for me, one of the most interesting factors is how Armenia will try to move away from Russia and get support from Europe while understanding that Europe itself is interested in Azerbaijani gas," summed up the Russian expert.

Caliber.Az