Is Raisi preparing to succeed Khamenei?

REGION  03 February 2023 - 15:11

Iranian President Raisi's speech on the evening of January 31, which was broadcast on state TV channels and widely covered by Iranian news agencies, went unnoticed in the countries of the region. Apparently, this lack of attention to the speech by the Israelis, Saudis, and Turks is due to the fact that it was entirely about an internal Iranian agenda, focusing on the "achievements" of the Raisi-led government in the socio-economic sphere and on the fight against the pandemic. But for this very reason, the speech could have far-reaching regional implications.

Raisi's speech was very similar to an election speech, Caliber.Az reports citing the Telegram channel AZfront.

But the presidential election was held in 2021, and the next one is planned as early as 2025. Tellingly, before the broadcast of this speech, state TV channels aired a public event on the "great achievements" of Iranian medicine, including in the fight against the pandemic. The 83-year-old Supreme Leader of Iran (actually the real head of state) Khamenei attended the event. In a very suspicious way for the state TV channels, the cameras focused on his frailty: the old man could barely move, and it was obvious that he could barely make a short public statement.

Immediately after feeble Khamenei, the speech of energetic 62-year-old Raisi on his achievements in the socio-economic sphere looks like a pre-election ploy. It is quite possible that in this way a very narrow group of persons in Iran's top leadership, which mainly represents the interests of the IRGC, is preparing the public for the nomination of Raisi for the post of the country's Supreme Leader before or after Khamenei's expected death. Such a decision could serve as a "pre-emptive game". It would allow high-ranking figures representing IRGC interests to achieve three goals at once:

▪️ To "take power" in the country in advance, under the guise of a conservative president;

▪️ Avoid an internal struggle within the ruling elite to succeed Khamenei;

▪️ Prevent political uncertainty, which would be guaranteed to be exploited by internal and external opponents of the regime for another attempt to overthrow it (following the unprecedented protest movement of the last months of 2022).

Caliber.Az