Israel's arms supply to Ukraine: what are the odds?
Mikhail Shereshevskiy explains

ANALYTICS  06 February 2023 - 15:38

Israel's multi-vectored foreign policy should not be misleading: it will respond to any arms supply to Iran. Countries compete fiercely for influence in the region and perceive each other as an existential threat. Israeli policy always takes this fact into account and proceeds from it. Whoever Israel builds relations with, constantly thinks about Iran.

Recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN he was considering supporting Ukraine by giving it Israel's Iron Dome air defence system. When asked if Israel could support Kyiv by handing over such a system, Netanyahu said, "I am certainly considering it." France24 and RBC also quoted him as saying.

Quite recently, Israel refused this kind of supply and maintained close ties with the Russian leadership. What has happened? Some observers attribute the change of position to the return to the government of Netanyahu, a veteran Israeli politician, after the recent elections. They are wrong. Bibi (as the newly-elected Israeli prime minister is referred to) was the architect of building close relations with Russia. It's not about him, it's about the overall vector of Israeli policy.

Bibi, throughout his previous term in power (he was prime minister from 2009 to 2021), sought to build relations with several powerful states, above all China, India, and Russia.

Israel is the main US partner in the Middle East, receives enormous financial and military aid from America, including the supply of advanced weapons, the pro-Israeli lobby has a strong influence on US foreign policy, and the famous Israeli high-tech is in symbiosis with Silicon Valley and leading US corporations. But this country has never put all its eggs in one basket and has always sought to diversify foreign relations in order to avoid one-sided dependence. Netanyahu's policy could be considered a model in this respect.

The establishment of close relations with China (in defiance of US anger) has led to a rapid increase in Chinese investment in the Israeli economy, from port purchases to multi-billion dollar injections into high-tech. China is buying up ports to create a trade route from the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal to Europe as part of its "One Belt, One Road" policy, and as for high-tech, Israel is one of the strategic partners able to provide the PRC with scientific and industrial modernisation.

At the same time a close politico-military and economic partnership with India, China's rival, is developing, largely thanks to the understanding between Netanyahu and Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister. A new economic and political bloc, the Quartet (US-UAE-India-Israel), is in the process of being formed.

As for the UAE, as well as Bahrain and Morocco, it was during Bibi's rule that the "Abrahamic agreements" were concluded, normalising relations between those Arab countries and Israel - part of the process of building an anti-Iranian Arab-Israeli bloc.

As part of the same process, Israel has become even closer to Azerbaijan: while India is the world's first buyer of Israeli arms, Azerbaijan is the second. The partnership is strategic - Azerbaijan supplies Israel with oil, but most importantly, both countries are aware of their differences with Iran.

Benjamin Netanyahu's cooperation with Russia is aimed at similar objectives. Iran is Israel's main rival in the Middle East; the countries are competing fiercely for influence in the region and perceive each other as an existential threat. Israeli policy always takes this fact into account and proceeds from it. Israel is always thinking about this while building relations with the Gulf Arabs, with Baku or Moscow.

Iran has been cooperating for years with the Assad regime in Syria, as well as with Hezbollah, the politico-military organisation that practically controls Lebanon and is at war with Israel. Iran's aim is to strengthen its sphere of influence, the "Shiite crescent" that runs through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and ends near the shores of the Mediterranean. For several years in a row, Israeli aircraft have attacked Iranian targets in Syria, including those of the Assad regime, in order to prevent Iran from entrenching itself in the area and supplying weapons to Hezbollah.

The problem was that Russia, along with Iran, is Assad's ally and Russian troops are stationed in Syria. Netanyahu had to solve the conundrum of how to make sure the Russians would not fire on Israeli planes. He solved it brilliantly, reaching out to Moscow as it began to fall into political isolation in the West. He came to Moscow on May 9 and stood at the podium with the Russian president. He agreed to avoid supplying high-precision weapons to Ukraine. Modern Israeli medicine - one of the best in the world - was made available to the Russian elite. Finally, Israel did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. In exchange for this package, Russia never prevented the Israeli air force from bombing the Iranians in Syria.

There were occasional reports of some Israeli weapons entering Ukraine, but these were small consignments that could have been purchased through third countries.

All was going well until it became known about deliveries of advanced Russian combat aircraft to Iran. According to RBC, Iranian authorities said they expected delivery of the Su-35 from Russia in the spring. In addition, the Iranian parliament said it had ordered missiles, helicopters, and some defencive systems from Russia.

The Su-35 combat aircraft has demonstrated high combat performance in Ukraine. The Russian media outlet Voyennoye Obozreniye reports that it probably refers to the deliveries to Tehran of 24 fighters of this type, originally intended for Egypt (Cairo rejected them under US pressure). As for the defence systems, the paper suggests that it is about the S-400 air defence systems. While the US is wary of supplying aircraft of this class to Kyiv to "prevent escalation" and not irritate the Kremlin, Moscow is not only actively using them, but also willingly exports them to its allies. But this is where the problem lies.

The supply of the latest combat aircraft to Iran (as well as the possible supply of the S-400) dramatically increases the country's defence capabilities. We are talking about building the strength of both the Iranian air force and air defence at the very time when Israel is raiding Iran, bombing its military factories (as recently happened in Isfahan), and openly talking about the need to destroy the Iranian nuclear programme.

Therefore, if these deliveries are implemented, Israel is highly likely to hand over the Iron Dome system, and maybe other weapons, to Ukraine as a retaliatory measure designed to deter Russian deliveries to Iran. Nothing personal, just politics.

Caliber.Az