Israel’s Ukraine dilemma
The Cold war era fear outweighs regional security

ANALYTICS  08 February 2023 - 11:46

On January 30, newly elected Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, during his recent interview with CNN, expressed readiness to mediate the potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine "If asked by all relevant parties.” Also, according to the sitting PM Netanyahu, previously, he was asked unofficially to mediate the conflict, though he declined the offer without specifying who made the request. Although PM Netanyahu's mediation option of the peace process between Moscow and Kyiv seems unnecessary, given the Western coalition's active involvement in the process, Tel-Aviv may re-consider its policy toward Ukraine.

Shortly after being sworn in office, Netanyahu's government signalled that his government may soon review its policy regarding the Ukraine war, and brought up the matter with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. However, despite the current humanitarian aid, the new government's staunch pro-Ukrainian position and rhetoric are unlikely given the new foreign minister Eli Cohen’s recent statement that “with regard to the Russia-Ukraine issue, we will do one thing for certain. In public – we will talk less.”

Indeed, for almost a year in which the war has been raging in Europe, Israel has tip-toed between the sides:  trying not to offend while simultaneously condemning; helping Ukraine but not giving it all it wants, all while safeguarding Israel's own geopolitical interests and maintaining its strategic alliances with the United States.

When the war just unfolded, the previous Israeli government provided muted support to Ukraine while stopping short of supplying weapons to Ukrainian forces, retaining relations with Russia. Hence, Israel frequently justifies its position toward Russia with a vulnerable position of the ethnic Jewish community in this country and its importance for national interests in this country.

Also, this reluctance to arm Ukraine stems from Israeli concerns not to jeopardise the agreement Netanyahu personally negotiated with Vladimir Putin a decade ago, which allows Israeli warplanes to overfly Syria and carry out regular air strikes against Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias there. As a result, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, has on several occasions blasted Israel for failing to oppose Russian aggression firmly.

Notwithstanding, Russia’s tactical losses on the ground and mounting international pressure forced Moscow to turn to Iran, which provided it with indigenously manufactured kamikaze drones. Since August 2022, Russian troops have largely used Iranian-made drones to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. As such, the Moscow-Tehran military axis in Ukraine triggered anger in Israel.

The discontent mounted sharply when intelligence reports suggested that Moscow would acquire Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles. Separately, an UN-prepared report said Iran has plans to sell Russia hundreds of missiles and drones in violation of the 2015 Security Council resolution that endorsed the nuclear deal between Tehran and six major powers. Such prospects of the proliferation of Iranian missiles beyond the traditional Gulf region sparked concerns in the Israeli political establishment.

Shortly after the emergence of similar reports, the Israeli government issued an ultimatum to Moscow that Tel-Aviv may take counter-measures if Iranian missiles will be acquired by the Russian troops to be used in Ukraine. Hence, in light of diplomatic rifts with Russia, in November 2022, Israel said it would begin delivering precision-guided missiles to Ukraine.

Although Russia postponed the acquisition of Iranian missiles, such a scenario swiftly changed Tel-Aviv’s vision regarding the growing Russia-Iran military partnership. As a result, the new PM Netanyahu now says he is looking into sending Ukraine other unspecified help over and beyond humanitarian aid, but it is clear he is wary of angering Moscow and putting the agreement over Syria at risk.

Moreover, Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen on January 19, accepted an invitation by his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to visit Kyiv. Thus, He would be the most senior Israeli official to do so since the start of the war.

Unlike the new government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the government of Naftali Bennet has had more positive relations with Ukraine and Russia, which enabled it to act as a mediator at the very beginning of the war, albeit unsuccessfully. Therefore, there is no guarantee that PM Netanyahu will push harder for peace in the brutal war and exert more pressure on Moscow.

However, in order to boost the image of his cabinet amid harsh criticism at home, PM Netanyahu will certainly double efforts to mediate the possible peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow during the upcoming spring season. He knows that the situation on the ground in Ukraine is different from one that currently presents many prospects of a negotiated settlement. Both sides are preparing for a widely anticipated spring offensive.

Caliber.Az