Is China about to take over Taiwan?
Foreign experts' opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  14 February 2023 - 18:45

NATO believes that the conflict in Ukraine could be "repeated in Asia" as China rapidly builds up its military forces and learns lessons from the Ukrainian conflict, "threatening Taiwan". The organisation's secretary-general, Stoltenberg, made the remark at a press conference with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington.

"China is closely following the lessons of the conflict in Ukraine and this is influencing its decisions. What happens in Europe today could happen in Asia tomorrow. China is significantly beefing up its armed forces, including nuclear capabilities, without any transparency. It is trying to control the South China Sea and threatens Taiwan by trying to take control of critical infrastructure, trampling the rights of its own citizens, and deepening its strategic partnership with Moscow. Thus, NATO allies have real concerns, which we discussed today," the NATO secretary general said.

That is, there are fears in the West today that China is seriously preparing to take over Taiwan and control the South China Sea. Have these threats really become more urgent recently? Are there any signs to confirm this?

Well-known foreign experts in the aforementioned region shared their vision of the situation with Caliber.Az.

Adil Kaukenov, Director General of the China Centre, Chief Expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, says the situation in the South China Sea and in principle in the Taiwan Strait is very, very complicated.

"The historical complexity of the issue is unfortunately exacerbated by external interference and geopolitical fault lines. There was, for example, a sensational scandal last year when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite China's objections, which raised the question of stability in the Taiwan Strait for a moment.

It should be noted that on both sides of the strait, ordinary people, and especially the Taiwanese, would not want the situation to escalate dramatically. Incidentally, this is also demonstrated by the elections taking place in Taiwan itself. That is, the popularity of politicians who talk more about peace and cooperation has risen sharply. For example, specifically from the Kuomintang party. As opposed to, for example, the Democratic Party, which staked more on Taiwan's 'independence'. In other words, we can see that, in fact, ordinary people are primarily interested in preserving the most important thing - stability and a peaceful situation that allows the economy to develop. Because any escalation of tension, first of all, affects economic ties and accordingly the well-being of ordinary people.

Nevertheless, we see that geopolitical rifts are growing, and there is increasing competition between the great powers. In particular, between the United States and China. Which is causing the powers to literally jostle in different regions of the world. And East Asia, in particular the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait are such explosive points.

It is difficult to predict how the situation will develop further, but in fact today the Chinese leadership itself says, for example, that it is set on constructive dialogue and seeks to avoid escalation as much as possible. But the extent to which this will succeed, given the huge number of interests of so many states in this region, is very difficult to predict," Kaukenov said.

For his part, Yurii Poita, Head of the Asia-Pacific Section at the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said that no one has information on whether China actually intends to invade Taiwan.

"No one knows for sure because there is no access to the operational plans of the People's Liberation Army of China in the public space," he said.

However, a number of signs show that China is preparing for a possible forceful takeover of Taiwan, Poita pointed out.

"The first indicator is that the PRC's legal and regulatory framework reinforces and enshrines the need for such a move because Taiwan is an integral part of China, and regaining control over the island is a sacred task of all Chinese people. This is enshrined in the Constitution, the Military Doctrine and a number of other documents, including the report of the 20th CPC Congress.

In addition, the Chinese leadership's rhetoric that Beijing will be prepared to use force to carry out such a task has been ramped up, and this rhetoric has been heard more and more recently.

The next indicator is what is happening in practice. China is preparing its military capabilities very intensively, with a component designed for amphibious operations to seize equipped and unequipped island shores. That is the navy, amphibious offshore platforms for the landing of marines, airborne units, a missile component, and air force for airborne support of the operation. In addition, China is constantly conducting relevant maneuvers to practice capturing the island near Taiwan itself.

The final indicator is the conclusions Beijing is drawing from the Russia-Ukraine war, and it has already noted for itself that the Russian nuclear blackmail against the West has been quite effective. That is, the blackmail has prevented the transfer of high-precision long-range missiles to Ukraine, and it has deterred the supply of heavy weaponry, tanks, aircraft, etc. It prevented direct NATO involvement.

That is why it was recently announced that China intends to develop its nuclear capabilities, and will triple them. This is most likely a reaction to the Russia-Ukraine war, and China intends to use this argument to intimidate the West to prevent it from intervening in a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

All in all, we can say that China is making preparations, and at some point, it may decide to carry out the operation. When will this happen?

American experts believe that by 2027 the PRC will be technically ready to do so. But there are other circumstances, not only military but also political and economic. After all, any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would immediately move China away from the global economy. Sanctions will be imposed, etc. There are many aspects that will be taken into account. In confabs, the same Chinese leaders have noted that Russia has made a strategic mistake and very serious consequences await it. Of course, Beijing would not want the same fate for itself. Moreover, it understands that it will not do without involving the US, which means it will have to gain a serious advantage.

In the near future, there will probably not be an attack on Taiwan, but in the medium term the risk, the probability increases," Poita summed up.

Caliber.Az