Russia and West lock horns over South Caucasus
Experts Kalachov and Bondarenko talk to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  14 February 2023 - 09:55

The fact that the EU's interference in the situation in the South Caucasus in the form of the deployment of a long-term mission in Armenia will undermine the fragile peace balance in the region - is not a prognosis, but a reality. The start of another showdown between Moscow and the US is further evidence of this. Deputy State Department spokesman Vedant Patel responded to the indignant rebuke by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova by accusing Russia of destroying the peace process in the South Caucasus.

To all appearances, this is just the beginning of a new skirmish between Moscow and Washington. Brussels and Paris are likely to join it soon. It is quite obvious that the main thing in this squabble is the clash of interests of the sides, rather than any real effort to restore peace in the South Caucasus.

"If such statements are an attempt to justify dragging the EEU into the region, it can hardly be considered a successful attempt," Maria Zakharova told a weekly briefing, commenting on the Armenian prime minister's inadequate statement that one of the aims of the EU observer mission is to dispel Western suspicions that Armenian-Russian aggression is being plotted.

"Russian peacekeepers ensure peace in Nagorno-Karabakh, our military border guards work on Armenian territory, including on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. We have never heard of Baku's fears on this issue, and at the same time, we are aware of Azerbaijan's critical attitude towards the EU's decision to deploy its observer mission to Armenia," Zakharova said.

There is no doubt, she pointed out, that Brussels is aiming to change the security system that has developed in the region, the cornerstone of which is the presence of Russian military personnel in Karabakh and Armenia's membership of the CSTO.

"And, of course, the spirit that has been shown, the political will, call it what you will... The implementation of the decisions that have been reached between the three countries in practice is also, of course, a significant part of the overall picture of the security system. I really want to believe that this is understood and taken into account in Yerevan," Zakharova added.

But the United States has its own truth. Almost immediately after Zakharova's statement, US State Department Deputy Press Secretary Vedant Patel accused Russia of undermining the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in a February 10 briefing. He said promoting peace in the South Caucasus remains a constant priority not only for the State Department but also for Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, as evidenced in particular by his direct contacts on conflict issues directly with the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"And that is something we are going to continue to focus on. As far as Russia is concerned... the fact is that Russian aggression and unilateralism have undermined a number of areas of effort, undermined a number of prospects for productive work in the Minsk Group format," Patel said.

The State Department spokesman also added that the US remains "firmly committed to engaging in any way to promote peace, whether bilaterally, whether through mechanisms within the EU, whether through the OSCE." And, as he emphasised, "promoting peace in the South Caucasus remains an ongoing priority for us".

It is quite remarkable that this time Washington rushed to respond to Moscow's invective, almost standing up for Paris and Brussels in the face of the Kremlin's attacks, which at the very least demonstrates the identity of their interests.

Meanwhile, Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachov told Caliber.Az that "it was not difficult to foresee the reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry to the invitation of European observers to Armenia".

"Let's face it, Russia does not want to lose Armenia as an ally and Azerbaijan as a partner. And playing a double game at the finish line of agreements is quite difficult. Unsettled problems helped Russia to maintain its role in the Caucasus. If all the problems are resolved, then what will be Russia's role?" Kalachov frankly admits.

At the same time, he believes that the EU, like Moscow, cannot be totally unbiased when it comes to the South Caucasus. The Europeans will always remember that the European gas and oil market, after the reduction of supplies from Russia, requires the expansion of partnership with Azerbaijan, that Azerbaijan can at least partially replace Russia. But there are also pronounced sympathies for Armenia in the West, since the Armenian lobby, according to Kalachov, is very influential not only in France but also in the United States.

"So things are not easy for Europe either. But there is one obvious thing - for Europeans and Americans, the best way to oust Russia from the South Caucasus is to help solve previously intractable problems. Azerbaijan's peace treaty with Armenia deprives Russia of an important trump card explaining its presence in the South Caucasus. Therefore, while Russia is busy with Ukraine, the EU and the US will step up. How the Russian leadership can respond to this is an open question.

Although Putin and Lukashenko have sympathy for Azerbaijan, despite the fact that Azerbaijan is deepening ties with Russia's partners in the CSTO, it is worth admitting that the Russian leadership has no objective interest in the term of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh ending and Azerbaijan integrating all of Karabakh. Nor is there any benefit to the Russian leadership in the peace treaty itself. Freezing the situation until the end of Special Military Operation in Ukraine looks more preferable," the Russian expert believes.

In his opinion, the stagnation Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue actually helps Russia to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus.

"However, objectively speaking, time is now working for Azerbaijan, and interest in it is growing," Kalachov points out.

He believes that the West wants only one thing with regard to Armenia - to consolidate its influence, expand economic, political, cultural, and humanitarian ties, helping Armenians in resolving their problems, but trying to maintain objectivity from the position of the rule of international law. As for Russia, the West is determined to deprive it of the benefits of a new freezing of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, delaying the negotiation process.

"The West wants to squeeze Russia, deprive it of a reason to be present in Armenia and in the South Caucasus in general," Kalachov said.

Russian political analyst Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, is of roughly the same opinion. Commenting to Caliber.Az on the situation, he also said that the US is aiming to drive Russia out of its former "backyard".

"The US wants Russia to completely lose its leverage in its 'backyard', to lose its credibility, its reputation as a potential negotiator. Unfortunately, with regard to Moscow, this goal is being systematically achieved, and for Armenia, France is often a more important negotiator than Russia.

For Azerbaijan, the main negotiator is Türkiye, not Russia, so we can say that Moscow is gradually losing its influence in the South Caucasus," Bondarenko said.

However, in his opinion, a clash between the EU mission and Russian border guards on Armenia's borders is unlikely to occur.

"The fact is that for Russia the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is an internal conflict. Several million Armenians and Azerbaijanis live in Russia, which as a factor leads to the fact that Moscow cannot take a more decisive position in resolving the conflict," the Russian political scientist believes.

He is confident that Armenia is now ready to do almost anything to somehow defend its interests, including the most extreme measures. The main thing for Armenians, in this case, is to prevent a military escalation, because it is clear what kind of collapse this could end up for them.

"If Baku and Ankara decide to return the rest of Karabakh to Azerbaijan's control - this will be done fairly quickly, I have no doubt. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces are ready to do it very quickly. Armenia understands this and is trying to use any chance to prevent a complete and final loss of its influence in the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh," Bondarenko concluded.

Caliber.Az