Minsk a step away from joining the Russia-Ukraine war?
Mitskevich and Tyshkevich assess the situation

INTERVIEWS  16 February 2023 - 14:00

The French and Canadian authorities urged their citizens to leave the territory of Belarus without delay. The French Foreign Ministry cites "a new offensive launched by Russia in Ukraine" as the reason. "Amid Russia's armed offensive against Ukraine and the closure of Belarusian airspace, any travel to Belarus is not formally welcomed," the ministry warned.

French citizens are urged to enter the EU by road, through the still open border crossings with Lithuania, Poland, or Latvia.

Perhaps, official Paris is concerned that Belarus' neighboring countries will close the border in case of escalation. According to one version of Western intelligence, Russia's new offensive against Ukraine may again include an element of invasion from Belarus.

How likely is such a development? Ukraine is known to be forced to keep combat units in the north, fearing an attack on the capital from Belarus. Could such events a year ago be repeated? And is there any chance that this time the Belarusian Armed Forces will take part in them?

Belarusian experts agreed to assess this situation in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

"Based on what we see at the moment, we can't talk about Russia preparing any large-scale actions from the territory of Belarus," says journalist of Belsat TV (Warsaw) Zmitser Mitskevich. - That is, attacks on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. At least, in the near future.

But at the same time, he noted, no actions or plans can be ruled out at all because Moscow has already shown its inadequacy.

"In other words, it is absolutely possible that they may try again to launch an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Only this time they may choose other targets. It might not be Kyiv, but an attempt to attack Lviv. For example, to cut off the flow of Western arms to Ukraine. Such a possibility was mentioned earlier.

At the same time, one should not discount the fact that there is the Rivne NPP, which means the Russian Armed Forces may try to engage in such blackmail - try to seize this plant from the nearby territory of Belarus. They have many variants, I think. But again, if they start to prepare, they will have to send a great number of forces and equipment - and it will be seen by Ukraine. Accordingly, the latter will have the right to deliver a preventive strike against these forces and their resources in Belarus. Which, in principle, is absolutely logical and adequate.

As regards participation of the Armed Forces of Belarus in this war we do not see such a possibility, because, first, there is no financial component for it, and second, there are no security factors of Lukashenko personally. Because if he sends his most combat-ready units to Ukraine, who will protect Lukashenko himself? And, I think, this point is understood in the Kremlin, and therefore there is no question of the use of Belarusian troops. In addition, I must stress that the decision to involve Belarusian troops in this war is made not in Minsk, but in the Kremlin. Lukashenko has no tools to refuse Putin. However, so far the Kremlin does not need any additional tension on the territory of Belarus, because Russia already has enough problems with it. Especially since Moscow has already had an unsuccessful Armenian case - that is, there are already serious problems there. That's why they are supporting Lukashenko's regime so far, it is beneficial for them. And 20 thousand troops Lukashenko can send to war will not make much difference to them when Russia itself can mobilise up to 300 thousand troops," the journalist said.

Another expert from Belarus, an analyst of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Ihar Tyshkevich noted that indeed the French Foreign Ministry in one of its statements recommended its citizens not to travel to the Republic of Belarus, and those who are there to leave the country as soon as possible. The French Foreign Ministry also advised avoiding political meetings in Belarus, as well as not showing hostility towards the Belarusian security forces, and not photographing policemen, warning that it could lead to imprisonment.

"Brazilian Foreign Ministry made a similar statement. The US also issued a red alarm for Belarus (a country not recommended for visits). Several other European countries issued somewhat milder statements about the undesirability of visits to Belarus. Germany, among others, advised its citizens to be as cautious as possible.

Naturally, such a statement by the French Foreign Ministry is a reaction to the information about a possible new Russian offensive, a new escalation. However, when it comes to the situation in Belarus itself, as of today and in the next few weeks, there is no strike fist on the territory of Belarus that could be used to attack Ukrainian territory.

On the other hand, the danger remains, which was there before - of missile strikes from Belarusian territory against Ukraine. And given the changes in the balance of power and the arrival of longer-range weapons in Ukraine, there is a possibility of retaliatory strikes in such a case. Therefore, this statement by the French Foreign Ministry can be perceived as a warning as well.

Finally, the third component is to pay attention to certain consultations conducted by the Belarusian Foreign Ministry on the European track and the mission of Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó to Minsk, where he met with his counterpart. The ministers exchanged views primarily, as both said, on the war in Ukraine. That is, as far as one can assume, Szijjártó, as a person whose visit would not irritate Moscow, brought a certain message, certain proposals, or a certain warning to official Minsk and listened to information in response, which he is likely to convey to his European colleagues," Tyshekvich concluded.

Caliber.Az