"Armenia has no desire to move towards real normalisation"
Political pundits share their thoughts with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  20 February 2023 - 16:33

This week, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye and Armenia Mevlut Cavusoglu and Ararat Mirzoyan met in Ankara. Cavusoglu described the visit of his Armenian counterpart as significant after the earthquake. He said he had agreed with Mirzoyan to speed up steps to normalise relations between the countries.

"The normalisation process in the South Caucasus continues. I believe that the notion of cooperation we are demonstrating will support this issue. At the same time the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan will contribute to stability in the region," the Turkish Foreign Minister stressed.

He added that Armenia had sent 100 tons of humanitarian aid to disaster-hit Türkiye and another shipment was on its way.

"We all remember the catastrophic earthquake in Spitak in 1988, during which Türkiye also sent aid to Armenia. Armenia also sent humanitarian aid during the 1999 earthquake. Even in these difficult days, it showed solidarity and cooperation," Cavusoglu said.

The Turkish Foreign Minister expressed hope that solidarity in the humanitarian sphere "will be an impetus for the process of normalisation of relations in the South Caucasus".

"Progress in Armenia's dialogue with Türkiye and Azerbaijan will contribute to stability in the region. If our three countries take sincere steps, we can achieve long-term peace in the South Caucasus," the Turkish minister said.

For his part, Mirzoyan reiterated Armenia's readiness and desire for a full settlement of relations with Türkiye, the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the full opening of the border between the countries.

Indeed, Türkiye has always linked the improvement in its relations with Armenia to the success of a similar process between Yerevan and Baku. Maybe all these statements in Ankara these days could somehow move the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has been frozen in recent months, in a more constructive direction? Can this give impetus to the more active movement towards a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan?

Prominent foreign experts have answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

"Even though the occasion for the meeting between Mirzoyan and Cavusoglu was a terribly huge tragedy - the earthquake in Türkiye, which took tens of thousands of lives, grief does not always divide," says Samson Katzman, an American analyst, and journalist.

Armenia's response to the natural disaster in the neighbouring country was correct and humanly, in a neighbourly way, the only possible response, he believes. An echelon of trucks with humanitarian aid has been sent from Armenia to Türkiye; Armenian rescuers are helping people free themselves from under the rubble of collapsed buildings.

"What is happening has raised high expectations among many observers: what if these contacts, which until a few weeks ago were impossible, develop into something more? And will the emerging warming in Armenian-Turkish relations lead to normalisation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani track? For example, the Ukrainian political journalist Vitaliy Portnikov goes even further in his assessment - improved relations between Türkiye and Armenia give Yerevan and Baku a chance to get out of the 'trap of the destructive Russian presence in the region'. Türkiye will pave the way for the South Caucasus countries to join NATO. Sanction-hit Russia is weakening and its losses in the war against Ukraine will lead to the de-occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the restoration of Georgian sovereignty there.

I would be hesitant to make such predictions for two reasons. At the moment there is no equally perceived peace formula between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And there is no desire on the part of the latter to move towards real normalisation. On the contrary, there is a clear desire to drag out the process, with the involvement of extra-regional players (France, and other Western European countries) to support its position. There is a possibility that Armenia will seek a full normalisation of relations with Ankara and try to persuade Türkiye to follow this path without being linked to a similar development in the Azerbaijani direction. This has already happened in the past.

And the second reason is the interests of Iran and Russia in the South Caucasus. The two countries are now cooperating as never before - the ayatollah regime is helping Putin with its arms deliveries to killing Ukrainian civilians. It is very likely that the two countries will coordinate, or are already coordinating their policies in the South Caucasus. Their goals are close, Iran's to prevent Azerbaijan from becoming stronger, Russia's to maintain its presence in the region.

So, what we are witnessing now in connection with the Turkish tragedy is a chance for the stabilisation of the situation in the South Caucasus. A glimmer of hope. No more than that," the American analyst said.

Vadim Dubnov, a Russian expert on the European post-Soviet states and journalist of Radio Liberty/Echo of Caucasus, noted in turn that the tragedy in Türkiye was a kind of the impetus for Yerevan and Ankara to intensify their contacts to restore relations in some way.

"But I do not think it is possible to draw any analogy here with, for example, 2008, when 'football diplomacy' was simply incorporated into the context of the big project. Many things are different now, so I don't think that even such a tragic set of circumstances can somehow cause serious progress.

But on the other hand, it gives Yerevan an opportunity to try to play the game of promoting contacts with Türkiye regardless of its relations with Azerbaijan, based on its own logic. This logic was observed immediately after the war when Yerevan tried to intensify its relations with Ankara in a separate way, but Türkiye, unlike 2008, is quite cautious in this matter, it remembers that it was an underestimation of Azerbaijan's interests that caused the collapse of the then project. And now, of course, it will closely monitor this balance," Dubnov says.

At the same time, he admits that there is some space in which Yerevan and Ankara can resolve certain issues between themselves.

"It is not very big, but I think that Yerevan is trying to exploit this space, and apparently this is the logic behind what is happening now. If it succeeds, this will also be a step forward, although not a fundamental one, which should not be overestimated in terms of an overall settlement," Dubnov summarised.

Caliber.Az