Munich talks
Following the Aliyev-Blinken-Pashinyan meeting

ANALYTICS  20 February 2023 - 09:45

The US continues to actively seek normalisation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, using any opportunity to show its mediation capabilities. The 59th Munich Security Conference which was launched on February 17 was another platform for a meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the participation of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Suggestions regarding a possible meeting of the leaders of the two South Caucasian republics in Munich were floating in the media recently, and both political analysts and politicians were rather upbeat about US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's willingness to attend the Aliyev-Pashinyan talks. It should be noted that Blinken is a supporter of direct Armenian-Azerbaijani contacts. As a result, the meeting in the format Aliyev-Blinken-Pashinyan demonstrated that Washington is ready to seriously and purposefully work towards normalising relations between Baku and Yerevan through its mediation.

It is also clear that the US is trying to intercept mediation initiatives by Moscow and Brussels, which have their own interests in the South Caucasus. Moreover, it is possible that the United States would like to be the sole regulator of the peace process in the region so that the long-awaited comprehensive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia could eventually be concluded through its efforts. This is exactly what the White House is trying to achieve, as it would firstly weaken Russia's hold in the South Caucasus and the US would increase its influence.

It should be noted that Baku sees Washington's mediation activity as another opportunity for the swift normalisation of relations with Armenia and to establish lasting peace in the region. In achieving this most important goal, it is not crucial for Baku whose mediation efforts - those of Moscow, Brussels, or Washington - will ultimately lead to long-term stability and intensive development in the region.

At the same time, it is clear that any mediation initiatives to achieve peace in the region run counter to the policy of Yerevan, which is dreaming of revenge and avoiding normal dialogue with Baku in every possible way. Therefore, any mediation factor in the negotiations is a kind of diplomatic tool to put pressure on the Armenian leadership, which both Russia and the West are finally ready to resort to. Baku is ready to sign a peace agreement today. Almost a year ago Azerbaijan put forward five basic principles, in full accordance with international law, on which a peace agreement must be concluded. They imply mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders, confirmation of the absence of territorial claims to each other, and commitment not to present such claims in the future, as well as rejection of threats to use force. It is also stated that, to begin with, it is necessary to delimit and demarcate the borders, establish diplomatic relations, and open transport and other communications. And all this does not contradict the interests of both Azerbaijan and Armenia and indeed the entire region. And Baku is ready to discuss the peace agenda, including through the mediation of Washington.

As is well known, from the American perspective, the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations seems to be best achieved through direct dialogue. Last October, US State Department spokesman Ned Price stated that the only goal of the US is to help Yerevan and Baku work together to achieve comprehensive and lasting peace, and called on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet in whatever format is convenient for them.

By the way, the US willingness to support direct contacts between Azerbaijan and Armenia was also mentioned in the statement of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on the eve of the November meeting in Washington of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia - Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan.

It is clear that the US is closely watching all the processes taking place in the region. Any steps and actions by Baku and Yerevan aimed at normalising relations or, on the contrary, torpedoing them, do not go unnoticed in Washington.

Blinken, for example, reiterated the US support for the clear demarcation of borders, transport links, the identification and return of missing persons, and the release of prisoners, while last July he expressed his approval of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers' meeting in Tbilisi.

On February 18, Blinken stated following the Munich meeting that "the sides are again focusing on the peace process, including through direct negotiations, as well as with the EU and with us".

"The United States stands ready to do whatever we can to support these efforts," Blinken said.

In other words, it is clear that the US is demonstrating a strong desire to finally resolve tensions between Baku and Yerevan, while also claiming to be the main moderator of the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations. During the occupation of the Azerbaijani territories, the US limited itself to calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. However, after Azerbaijan eliminated the Karabakh problem in the autumn of 2020, the representatives of the US foreign policy started to make statements corresponding to the post-war spirit, which completely satisfied Baku. As an example of this, US politicians are saying that the border should be delimited, which is clearly in Baku's interests, but not in line with Yerevan's wishes. At least the summit on the sidelines of the Munich conference showed that the United States has no intention of ceding the moderation of the negotiations to Moscow and Brussels, but it will still have to exert pressure on Yerevan to bring the complex Armenian-Azerbaijani relations to the level of a peace agreement.

Caliber.Az