Armenia sacrifices real opportunities for illusory momentary gains
About EU observers, checkpoints and illogical Mirzoyan

ANALYTICS  24 February 2023 - 10:03

No sooner had the representatives of the EU mission got off the plane in Yerevan "Zvartnots" airport and changed their casual shoes to winter boots to take up positions on the frozen conditional border than Armenian armed forces opened fire from these very positions towards Azerbaijan. A similar provocation was committed by the remnants of the Armenian gangs in the territory of Azerbaijan, which is in the zone of temporary responsibility of the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent.

On February 22, Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said during a joint press conference with Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn that the Armenian side did not accept Ilham Aliyev's proposals concerning the mutual establishment of checkpoints both in Lachin and on both sides of Zangazur corridor.

These two events suggest with a high degree of certainty that the last days of February will go down in Armenian history as the days of "restoration of dignity". One hundred Europeans, "of whom 50 are unarmed", will be awarded the most enthusiastic epithets in school textbooks and declared heralds of "future glorious victories".

I wonder, by the way, how did the Europeans distribute weapons amongst themselves? Maybe half-and-half: 25 guns for the French, 25 for the Germans? Or some had 50, and the others zero? Or was it 26 to 24? Didn't the French retain a "controlling interest"? And if so, how do the German representatives view this - is there a German revolt brewing in the hills of Armenia?

Anyway, let's get back to the point.

Mirzoyan said literally the following: "The idea of installing a checkpoint on the Armenian border and on the section where the Lachin corridor starts was voiced in Munich. Our response is unequivocal. The parameters of the Lachin corridor have been negotiated and signed. We are talking about the document of November 9 (Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020). Conducting new negotiations about the parameters of the Lachin corridor, and under the threat of force, is unacceptable for us".

I wonder if there is a single person in the Armenian government, opposition, or expert community who would call this step a great folly. And this is perhaps the biggest foolishness of modern Armenian politics after the well-known slogan of the premier, saying "Karabakh is Armenia and that's it"...

Does Mirzoyan understand that to confirm the intention to follow the Trilateral Statement means to admit his military defeat on all counts and with all the ensuing consequences since this statement is nothing less than an act of surrender? Isn't this what Ilham Aliyev told Nikol Pashinian at the Munich Security Conference?

The statement of November 10 does not indeed suggest a checkpoint in Lachin. But it would be better if this was not brought up in Yerevan. The fact is that, according to the agreement, the Lachin road is guarded by RPC forces. The latter is on the territory of Karabakh temporarily. And this means the checkpoint will be set automatically after the withdrawal of the Russian contingent.

But the point about the Zangazur corridor does not suppose any time frame. Units of the Russian FSB will control the road, if not forever, then for a long time. That is, Russian troops will leave Karabakh, but they will arrive in Armenia. Is this what you wanted? You will get it.

And in general, it is strange to hear about adherence to the Trilateral Statement from a party that does not, with the tacit consent of the country carrying out the peacekeeping mission, fulfill its central point - the withdrawal of all Armenian military formations from Karabakh.

In addition, with this demarche, the Armenian side has openly renounced its previously voiced position recognising the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. In other words, the negotiation process is effectively dead. This may benefit Yerevan in the short term, in line with the adventurous French policy, but in the long term, when the trail of French days in the Caucasus is blown away without a trace by the mountain wind, Armenia will find itself in an extremely awkward position. Such a position presents Armenia as a party sabotaging the negotiations and preventing peace in the region. And it should not be forgotten that Aliyev's proposal was met with understanding by the US and EU representatives. And let us repeat the paradoxical thesis - only through rejecting claims and confrontation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, only through integration with its neighbours, can the Armenian people regain their dignity. Because all others only use it and therefore do not respect it.

In the meantime, what we keep repeating is the sacrifice of real opportunities for illusory momentary gains. The proposal of the checkpoint on the border was a goodwill gesture on the part of President Aliyev, a strong rod, by holding on to which the Armenian authorities could crawl out of the whirlpool of humiliating defeat. Now, it looks like this rod will have to be used to whip the reluctant drowning man's hands.

Caliber.Az