Three challenges facing Israel's new government
Mikhail Shereshevskiy's analysis

ANALYTICS  07 March 2023 - 17:42

The new Israeli government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now in a difficult position caused by three crises inside and outside the country. But it may have a solution.

Legislative crisis

The first crisis has to do with protests by the Jewish population in Israeli cities over legislative reform. Namely, the leadership and the parliamentary majority on which it relies intend to recognize the supremacy of the legislative decisions of the parliament (the Knesset) over the decisions of the Supreme Court. In Israel, the Supreme Court can declare almost any parliamentary decision unconstitutional, in which case it will cease to function. The government intends to change this state of affairs.

The opposition says that the ruling coalition's attempts to limit the Supreme Court's rights stem from the desire of Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi, as he is called in Israel) to grant himself immunity from prosecution since the Prime Minister is currently being tried on charges of corruption. Furthermore, in addition to Bibi and his Likud party, the government includes religious and ultra-nationalist parties (which are also religious). They would like to change Israeli laws in order to strengthen the influence of religious norms and increase funding for ultra-Orthodox communities in the country and Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The Supreme Court, which wields enormous power, has traditionally been seen as a bulwark of secular moderate officialdom and has stymied these projects.

The government responds by saying that the Supreme Court, unlike Parliament, is not elected by the people; there is little democracy in this institution and therefore it is highly questionable whether it has the right to restrict the decisions of a publicly elected Parliament. As for certain projects and decisions of the latter, after all, the majority of Israelis voted for the Netanyahu-led coalition and are waiting for it to act.

As a result, Israeli society is split, and many opponents of the government have taken to the streets to support the decisions of the Supreme Court. The latter has already called any decision of parliament aimed at curtailing its rights illegal. In theory, this leads to a situation of division between the two powers, in which the Supreme Court would not recognise the legality of the parliament, which would, in turn, no longer respect the decisions of the Supreme Court. The Israeli citizens, including the military and the police, will then have to choose whom they obey. This, however, has not yet come to pass.

The Israeli-Palestinian crisis

There are about 13 million people in the territories under Israeli control - about 10 million citizens of Israel itself (2 million of them Palestinian Arabs), and about 3 million non-citizens, mostly Arabs, in the West Bank (WB) of the Jordan River. There is a Palestinian Authority in the WB, but in fact, the Israeli military can go in whenever and wherever they want. In addition, they control the external borders and financial flows in that region. There are Israeli checkpoints and settlements in part of the WB, which, including Jerusalem, are home to about 800,000 Israeli citizens and about 3 million Palestinians, Muslims and Christians, non-citizens.

Then there is the Palestinian-populated Gaza Strip in the South, which is controlled by the Palestinian fundamentalist movement Hamas, sharply hostile to Israel. Some 2 million Arabs live in Gaza and the Strip is blockaded by Israeli troops, who largely control the financial flows in and out of Gaza.

Palestinian Arabs are thus divided into several groups with different legal and political statuses - citizens of Israel, non-citizens of Israel in the WB, and residents of the Gaza Strip. Israeli political-military analyst Jonathan Spier also identifies a fourth group - the Palestinian Arabs of East Jerusalem (the city is recognised as Israel's one and indivisible capital, but most Palestinians of Jerusalem are not granted Israeli citizenship).

There are occasional clashes between Palestinians and Israelis. Many Palestinians demand an end to the blockade of WB and Gaza and full state independence. There are those who say that they can do without it, but they will have to be given equal rights, i.e. Israeli citizenship. For their part, Palestinian citizens complain of discrimination. Until 2021, the four groups generally operated differently.

However, the situation changed in May 2021, when clashes broke out between Palestinian and Jewish demonstrators in Jerusalem. The conflict arose from an Israeli Supreme Court decision to evict Palestinians from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood of East Jerusalem. "Hamas supported the Jerusalem Arabs with rocket attacks on Israeli territory. There were protests in the West Bank and Palestinians began to form armed militias independent of the Palestinian Authority to attack Israeli soldiers and settlers. In Israeli towns, Arab youths staged a real riot with firearms, the epicentre of which was the Israeli town of Lod, where Palestinian Arabs constitute about a third of the population. For the first time since the 1947-1949 Arab-Israeli war, the Arabs united against Israel. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict can be said to have taken on a new quality since then.

The latest episodes are alarming. On February 26, hundreds of Israeli settlers attacked the small Arab town of Huwara, near the West Bank city of Nablus (Shechem). This came after Palestinian gunmen shot and killed two Israeli brothers in the town. The settlers, in turn, burned down dozens of buildings in Huwara. Complicating matters, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, with ties to the settlers, said that although lynching was unacceptable, the town of Huwara should be wiped off the face of the earth by Israel. His remark provoked a sharp reaction both among Arabs and the world. Benjamin Netanyahu had to speak publicly, calling on everyone to "tone down the rhetoric", and Smotrich himself said that he had misspoken.

However, the situation remains tense. Ministers affiliated with ultranationalist parties - Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir - are taking a very tough stance on the Palestinians, while the situation in the Palestinian territories is already challenging. Therefore, there is a growing possibility of a repeat of the events of 2021.

Israel-Iran crisis

Finally, tensions are growing between the main rivals in the Middle East, Iran and Israel. Iran has come close to developing the components of a nuclear weapon, having enriched uranium to 84 per cent, compared with a weapon-grade level of 90 per cent. Some researchers believe Iran already has the means to construct a nuclear warhead. According to various experts, its integration with missile systems takes from 6 to 24 months.

Israel has repeatedly stated that Iran will not tolerate nuclear weapons, and there is a consensus among all major Israeli political parties and between politicians and the military.

Netanyahu now faces a dilemma. He can either subject Iran to massive bombings to destroy its nuclear program, or Iran is highly likely to develop nuclear weapons. If the latter happens, not only would it change the balance of power in the Middle East, but it would be a severe blow to the credibility of the Israeli prime minister himself at home. And this at the very time when Bibi's situation is more than complicated. So he is very much interested in a military solution to the Iranian problem.

Recent Israeli drone attacks on Iranian military installations in Isfahan have demonstrated the effectiveness of precision weapons. They also demonstrated the weakness of the response - Iran has not struck Israeli territory. This provides further motivation for the Israeli onslaught against Iran.

However, such an operation is fraught with major problems. Some experts, such as Amos Harel, argue that the Israeli Air Force is not sufficiently prepared for such an operation. The Iranian nuclear program is vast, spread across a huge area of the country, and protected by air defenses. That could mean that destroying that program would require numerous raids by hundreds of planes and drones - a full-fledged air war that could last for weeks.

In such a situation, Iran would most likely respond with missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory, which would mean an Iranian-Israeli war. Is Israel ready for that?

Finally, Iran's main nuclear facility - a uranium enrichment plant - is located in the vaults of Mount Fordo, and military experts have expressed doubts that Israel has the necessary weapons to destroy it. The US has such weapons. But are the Americans, who are conducting joint maneuvers with Israel in preparation for strikes against Iran, ready to take part in such an operation? And if not, can they provide Israel with the appropriate weapons? The behaviour of the Biden administration in the Ukraine crisis demonstrates the indecisiveness of the current US leadership.

Multidimensional challenges

Israel is thus faced with a multidimensional crisis, i.e. it is dealing with several complex strategic challenges at once. This would seem to complicate Benjamin Netanyahu's position. However, a possible way out of this situation involves an escalation of strikes against Iran, and an attempt to destroy its nuclear program, missile capabilities, and defense industry factories. A full-scale conflict with Iran could help to dampen the domestic crisis - under such conditions, there will be no time for the splits in Israeli society, which tends to show cohesion when confronted with the external foe. One fire drives out another fire, as the Russian saying goes. Solving one problem by harsh methods may help Bibi to solve other problems. Though, of course, the risks are great.

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