Why is Iran's top negotiator under fire from hardliners?
The regime’s dangerous gambling
ANALYTICS 15 March 2023 - 15:11
Fuad Shahbazov |
On March 10, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced the restoration of diplomatic ties under the close monitoring of China. While the mediation of Beijing helped to decrease the tensions between two main arch-foes in the Gulf, it also signalled that the US might lose its indispensable role in the region. Indeed, the joint statement issued from Beijing on March 10 committed both countries to respect each other’s sovereignty and to not interfere in each other’s internal affairs, to reopen their embassies in Tehran and Riyadh within two months, to revive a bilateral security pact, and to resume trade, investment, and cultural exchanges.
The diplomatic thaw between Tehran and Riyadh became a milestone for the Iranian government amid worsening tensions with the West due to the development of the nuclear program. As such, the Islamist regime's backbone – Islamic Revolutionary Corps (IRGC), appeared to be at the epicentre of this standoff.
As the most conservative entity of the Islamist regime, the IRGC’s status is included in the preamble of Iran’s constitution of 1979, in which it is given the responsibility for “fulfilling the ideological mission of jihad in God’s way; that is, extending the sovereignty of God’s law throughout the world.” This translates into militias wreaking havoc in the region and crushing revolts at home.
Such a status enabled the IRGC to intervene in the activities of nearly all state institutions, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Being under the strict control of hardliners, the IRGC has long been overshadowing the actions of Iranian reformists. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that the current Tehran-Riyadh thaw outraged the leadership of the IRGC, while its affiliated state officials and bureaucrats recently criticized Ali Shamkhani, the long-term head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and top negotiator at the recent Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization meeting.
Although Ali Shamkhani assumed the diplomatic role in the last several years, he has long been a political chameleon — with stints in reformist, pragmatic, and conservative presidential administrations. He is the only member of the Iranian establishment to have served in the top brass of both Iran’s regular Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Unlike many hardliners in Iran, Shamkhani has advocated for change within the system, to divide and conquer those protesting, forming an unusual coalition with Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei. Shamkhani’s and another pragmatics approach to the internal process in Iran coincide with the increased visibility of reformists and pragmatists in Tehran since the onset of the protests in September.
Moreover, Ali Shamkhani appears to be more enthusiastic about continuing nuclear talks with the West and even granting some concessions in exchange for additional security guarantees, notably ruling out the possibility of imposing new sanctions once the nuclear agreement has been reached. Shamkhani has also hedged, pushing against a complete pivot away from the West to align with China and Russia in light of their worsening reputation and the war in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, the position of Shamkhani boosted internal criticism within the hardliners' circle, demanding his removal from the position.
As such, the names of potential candidates to replace Shamkhani in his post recently circulated on social media. Among them is the chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri; the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters commander, Gholam Ali Rashid; the former defence minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar; and current Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi.
However, for now, Shamkhani became largely successful in maintaining a high profile within the Iranian establishment and personally with president Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Considering that conservative president Ebrahim Raisi has minimal power in the governance, including in foreign policy direction, the relations with Ayatollah Khamenei are vitally important for Ali Shamkhani in order to preserve his leading role in the government.
Also, Ayatollah Khamenei will unlikely seek to replace his loyal protégé Ali Shamkhani, who has been a long-term front-runner in nuclear negotiations with the West at this uncertain time for the regime. Even if so, Khamenei will seek to elevate someone to replicate Shamkhani's skills and set at a time when the Islamic Revolution is under fire. This would likely need to be a figure able to garner cross-factional support — potentially one who served as defence or interior minister or in the foreign ministry in more pragmatic governments.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Poland suspends military drills following fifth soldier's death
27 March 2024 - 13:41
|
2
|
Syrian scenario for Armenia Russian, Israeli experts’ views for Caliber.Az
26 March 2024 - 17:27
|
3
|
Serbian president warns of difficult days ahead
27 March 2024 - 11:04
|
4
|
Global reactions to UNSC Gaza ceasefire resolution Diverse views, urgent action
27 March 2024 - 18:00
|
5
|
Vucic warns of Serbia's Council of Europe departure amid Kosovo debate Double standards alert
28 March 2024 - 12:13
|
Azerbaijan attracts $6.7 billion in direct foreign investment in 2023
29 March 2024 - 13:55
Armenian Prosecutor's Office targets family of Dashnak representative
29 March 2024 - 13:43
Azerbaijan asserts right to self-defense amidst calls for regional peace
Hajiyev grants interview to Chinese TV channel Phoenix29 March 2024 - 13:39
Azerbaijan to construct four new renewable energy plants this year – energy minister
29 March 2024 - 13:30
Azerbaijan holds command-staff exercise in one of military units
29 March 2024 - 13:17
Azerbaijan, China strengthen economic ties
From trade to investment29 March 2024 - 13:10
Another suspect detained for alleged complicity in Moscow terrorist attack
29 March 2024 - 13:05
Politico: The European Parliament is once again caught in corruption
29 March 2024 - 12:52
Geopolitical storm brewing beyond Russia's reaction
EU-US-Armenia meeting sparks controversy29 March 2024 - 12:38
Speaker says Armenia doing nothing against Russia
29 March 2024 - 12:24
Armenia conducts house-to-house searches in apartments, offices of nationalists
29 March 2024 - 12:09
Ombudswoman: World community should recognize events of 1918 as genocide of Azerbaijanis
29 March 2024 - 11:57
Global trade at risk as Washington faces policy failure
US-Houthi stalemate continues29 March 2024 - 11:46
Armenia blocks Kremlin propagandist’s talk-show
29 March 2024 - 11:34
Armenian prime minister faces dilemma amid Karabakh junta provocations
How will Pashinyan respond?29 March 2024 - 11:22
Azerbaijan’s ecology minister meets with Saudi energy companies
29 March 2024 - 11:13
Israeli strike kills 36 Syrian soldiers near Aleppo
Unprecedented attack29 March 2024 - 11:02
Poland to deploy troops to ensure security at Paris Olympics amid heightened alert
29 March 2024 - 10:53
European analyst: Armenia unlikely to secure NATO or EU membership
29 March 2024 - 10:42
Top UN court orders Israel to allow food and medical aid into Gaza
29 March 2024 - 10:31
Pundit questions Armenia's dependence on Western protection
29 March 2024 - 10:19
Presidential aide: Azerbaijan very pleased with China in field of global green transformation
29 March 2024 - 10:07
Azerbaijani officials deemed more professional than Armenian counterparts, claims blogger
29 March 2024 - 09:54
Great Return: Azerbaijan resettles 35 more families in Fuzuli amid restoration efforts
PHOTO29 March 2024 - 09:41
Armenian parliament speaker affirms EU membership goal
29 March 2024 - 09:27
Iranian top diplomat opposes military presence of third countries in Caspian Sea
29 March 2024 - 09:14
Azerbaijani, Armenian parliament speakers to meet again in mid-May amid peace talks
29 March 2024 - 09:00
Assault on Yerevan police station underlines risk of violent opposition to Armenia-Azerbaijan peace
Opinion by Commonspace.eu29 March 2024 - 08:45
Estonia must double defence spending to counter Russia - military chief
29 March 2024 - 07:00
Turkmenistan ready to diversify natural gas supplies to ECO countries - president
29 March 2024 - 05:00
Eurasianet: Armenian government grappling with border delimitation dilemma
29 March 2024 - 03:01
Iran displays advanced military might at international exhibition
PHOTO/VIDEO29 March 2024 - 01:00
Armenia’s exports to Russia raise concerns over sanctions circumvention
28 March 2024 - 23:00
Lavrov blames Armenian leadership for deliberately undermining relations with Moscow
28 March 2024 - 21:09
Turkish, Azerbaijani filmmakers unite for joint historical film Golden Train
28 March 2024 - 20:57
Japan looks to revive commercial aircraft development dreams
28 March 2024 - 20:45
CoE committee plans working visit to Armenia to assess regional dynamics
28 March 2024 - 20:41
Azerbaijan, OIC Youth Forum ink deal for Shusha 2024 program
28 March 2024 - 20:37
Ukraine drone strike hits Russian infrastructure - Belgorod governor
28 March 2024 - 20:29
EU mission in Armenia transitioning to NATO oversight
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov28 March 2024 - 20:20