"Central Asia - next target in US strategy to shatter Chinese influence"
Caliber.Az interview with Kazakh expert Nurlan Munbayev

INTERVIEWS  27 March 2023 - 16:04

Caliber.Az had a conversation with Nurlan Munbayev, a Kazakhstani expert, and professor of econometrics.

- What do you think is the reason for the US growing interest in the Central Asian region, in particular in Kazakhstan?

- The US is seriously interested in changing the balance of power in Central Asia and has been purposefully beefing up its cooperation with the countries of the region. In more than three decades of the independent existence of the five Central Asian republics, contacts with the US have never been interrupted. In fact, at times they have even been carried out with enviable regularity. Given that the United States considers itself the only superpower with the right to impose its will on the world, its close attention to the processes taking place in the region is quite legitimate.

- What do you think is the reason for the US growing interest in the Central Asian region, in particular Kazakhstan?

- The US is seriously interested in changing the balance of power in Central Asia and is purposefully increasing its cooperation with the countries of the region. In more than three decades of the independent existence of the five Central Asian republics, contacts with the US have never been interrupted. In fact, at times they have even been carried out with enviable regularity. Given that the US considers itself the only superpower with the right to impose its will on the whole world, its close attention to the processes taking place in the region is quite legitimate.

On the other hand, a key geographical location in the centre of Eurasia, and abundant resources (uranium, oil, gas, gold, etc.) have positioned Central Asia as one of the most important regions for pursuing Washington's national interests.

- How effective was US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's recent visit to Kazakhstan in this sense?

- At the current stage of the global restructuring of the system of international relations, any steps and actions of regional and especially geopolitical players are not accidental and pursue serious long-term goals. The visit of the American Secretary of State Blinken to Central Asia, in particular to Kazakhstan, can be interpreted in a similar way.

At the same time, our countries are strategic partners; in addition, the United States has now become one of the largest investors in Kazakhstan. For instance, at the end of 2022, the amount of investment from there (since 1993) was more than $62 billion, and last year it increased 58.8 percent to $5 billion. The trade turnover between the two countries last year increased 37 percent to more than $3 billion. Incidentally, the United States is investing mainly in Kazakhstan's oil and gas and mining sectors. Therefore, I think Blinken's visit, first and foremost, will further enhance the level of trade and economic cooperation between the United States and Kazakhstan.

- What risks does US competition with geopolitical players such as Russia and China pose to the Central Asian region?

- More than 30 years have passed since the collapse of the bipolar system. The independent Central Asian republics, which were previously part of the great power, the USSR, have existed for the same length of time. Political perturbations have contributed to radical changes in the global economy, and the Soviet republics, having declared their independence and sovereignty after the collapse of the empire, are faced with the need to define their own path of development, freely choose their economic policies and establish diplomatic contacts with strategic partners. I believe that in this difficult period, the Central Asian countries for the first time became truly aware of what a profitable and at the same time dangerous geopolitical space they find themselves in.

The fact that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are located in the heart of the Eurasian continent is an important geostrategic factor for Russia, the United States and China, whose similarity of interests leads to ever-increasing competition between them. At the moment, the key areas where these countries' interests overlap include: access to energy resources and participation in building oil and gas infrastructure; control over strategic industries; obtaining the most favourable conditions for investment in the region's economies; obtaining arms supplies to Central Asian states; increasing influence in the political life of states; and creating a favourable image of their countries in the public opinion of the region's population. And the fact that the importance of Central Asia to the US is gradually increasing is due as much to both economic and political strategy. Nevertheless, energy policy remains a priority, determining access to the region's large resources and the creation of hydrocarbon transportation routes to the West, bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan occupy the main positions in this track.

On the other hand, the US influence on the geopolitical situation is determined by its military presence in Central Asia. Increasingly, fears that the US is establishing a bridgehead on the southern borders of the CIS in the form of military bases (to strengthen its position) and to weaken the influence of other states, especially Russia and China, are heard. Prior to 2001, the United States was eyeing the region, establishing political, economic and military ties there. The activities of various foundations and non-governmental organisations expanded, and countries in the region became involved in pro-Western projects. American activity was most conspicuous in the energy sphere. And in 1999, a number of projects to transport Caspian and Central Asian hydrocarbons to the West were documented.

- How is the new US strategy for Central Asia different from the previous one?

- The US strategy for Central Asia is updated every five years. The document is traditionally amended by the State Department, shifting the emphasis depending on American interests in the region. The peculiarity of the new strategy is that Washington for the first time acknowledged the self-sufficiency of the Central Asian states regardless of the situation in Afghanistan, China or Russia. In previous versions of the document, the Americans either considered Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan to be part of South Asia or introduced a special concept of the "Greater Middle East" or "Greater Central Asia" to link the post-Soviet region with the neighbouring Muslim world. Nevertheless, the strategy, this time declaring the region's intrinsic value, is rooted in its proximity to Afghanistan and calls on the republics to take partial responsibility for its reconstruction. The importance of the region to the US is, therefore, still determined by the Afghan factor and through it the interest in Central Asia itself.

In the new strategy, as in all previous versions, the Americans seek to avoid a clash of interests in the region with other major players. Above all, with Russia and China. The document recognises the inevitability that Moscow and Beijing, due to their geographical proximity, will continue to actively develop their contacts with the region, and that Washington is unlikely to surpass the extent of their influence. But it does not follow that the Americans are resigned and ready to cede to the Russians and the Chinese their niche that has been created over the past 30 years. Washington is ready to develop ties with the region in areas where it has a competitive advantage. In the 1990s, the Americans considered supporting the independence of the Central Asian republics that had barely escaped Moscow's control as their trump card. For this purpose, they threw all their energies into the creation of an alternative energy and transport infrastructure that would make it possible not to depend on Russian pipelines and logistics. In the 2000s, the region became a springboard for the transit of American non-military goods to Afghanistan. Today, the U.S. is betting on supporting Central Asian economies. The strategy emphasises Washington's interest in financing new infrastructure, energy, logistics and educational projects in the region. In this way, the Americans hope to accelerate liberal reforms, especially in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

- Is a serious geopolitical confrontation over the Central Asian region between the US and China inevitable?

- The battlefield of Cold War 2.0 between China and the US is being expanded beyond the context of bilateral relations between the powers into third countries and regions. Central Asia, bordering on China, is named as the next target for a strategic strike by the Americans against Chinese influence. American experts are already explicitly referring to the confrontation between the United States and China as the "Second Cold War". Not the aggravation of bilateral relations due to Donald Trump's attempt to shift responsibility for the nearly 1.5 million sick and 100,000 dead American citizens due to the coronavirus onto Beijing - but a full-blown course to contain Beijing and limit the growth of its political and economic influence. The PRC has integrated too deeply into the supposedly US-controlled institutions of global governance, adapted to their rules and regulations to compete with America (e.g. the principle of free trade) and made the United States dependent on bilateral trade and economic relations. In theory, the US could impose an embargo on high-tech goods to China, but that would lead to resentment from US companies, which, presumably, would not want to lose a significant share of the global semiconductor market. I would assume that the game against China will unfold on several fronts. First of all, U.S. will aggravate traditionally existing anti-Chinese sentiment among population of regional countries. In particular, by fanning "Xinjiang myths. The US media continues to write about 'labour camps' in the Xinjiang Uyghur region and mass repression of local Muslims, which naturally draws sharp protests from Central Asian Muslims. Some local publications add their own specifics - for example, about the same Kazakhs who are forcibly driven into these camps and who are not protected by the Kazakh authorities.

The third area of impact is the general destabilisation of the region. Anti-Chinese public sentiment may make it difficult for Chinese companies to operate, but it will not prevent Beijing from using the regional space to transit goods between the PRC and Europe. Since the U.S. will not be able to ban transit either, the only option left to them is to make the region too dangerous and risky for any regular transit traffic.

- Do you see Kazakhstan and the Central Asian states participating in Eurasian projects in the future, say, five or ten years from now?

- Researchers believe that the changes are continuing and that in ten years' time, all of Central Asia will be unrecognisable. Most Kazakhstanis are still optimistic about the future, but the gap between the pessimists and the undecideds is minimal. The threat of inter-elite squabbles and the growth of social tension are alarming. But hopes are pinned on political stability and economic reforms.

Secondly, the real way to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment is to stimulate protests because of China's economic activity. Yes, China has long been Central Asia's biggest trade partner, investor, and creditor, but it has a disadvantage: when the local authorities are unable to repay Chinese loans and start paying China in a different currency, these actions turn into real civil uprisings. This is fuelled by numerous media publications, as well as the demands of Western-affiliated human rights organisations.

Caliber.Az