Ukraine war: Crashing human destinies
Cities, lives and plans crumbling into ashes

ANALYTICS  27 March 2023 - 17:19

War is not limited to fighting on the battlefield. And it is not just statistics on the death toll. Any war means ruined cities, and crashed destinies. The full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war that began on February 24, 2022, is an inconceivable number of personal tragedies and unrealized plans of millions and millions of people. And that is what today's story will be about, about how the current war has affected the Ukrainians and those for whom Ukraine has become a second homeland.

Millions of Ukrainian refugees

To begin with, the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe reached 4 million 823,000 as of January 31, 2023, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said. According to the UNHCR data collected from national governments, the biggest number of Ukrainian refugees with the status of temporary protection is still in Poland - 1,563,39 thousand, and in two months their number increased by 55,500. In total, according to the Polish border service, 9.594 million people have arrived from Ukraine to Poland since the war started, and 7.737 million have departed in the opposite direction to Ukraine.

In Germany, up to 881.4 thousand citizens of Ukraine reside with a similar status. It is followed by Czech Republic, where the number of Ukrainians registered for temporary protection increased since the end of November by 22.7 thousand up to 485.1 thousand. Italy is on the fourth place - 169.31 thousand (increase of 5.1 thousand), and Spain is closing the list with 161.01 thousand (increase of 6.5 thousand). But this is only statistics on Europe. There is also Canada, with its large Ukrainian diaspora. According to data from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) as of December 30, 2022, that country has received over 140,000 Ukrainians since the start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. Thousands and thousands of Ukrainians have also moved to the UK, Türkiye and even the UAE. Naturally, there are also many who have moved to the countries of the former Soviet Union. This includes Moldova, which borders on Ukraine, as well as Georgia, Azerbaijan and other countries that are now independent. Most of them come from mixed marriages. Some of them later moved to third countries, some returned to Ukraine. The latter mostly include residents of Kyiv and other cities, where life, if I may say so, is gradually recovering and where jobs can be found.

Will they ever return?

It is worth mentioning that most Ukrainian refugees will not return to Ukraine after the war ends. This is the conclusion reached by experts at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank specialising in economic issues. A devastated economy, likely protracted conflict and uncertainty will keep Ukrainians from returning home. Already now an unemployment rate of 35 per cent and 50 per cent of the country's devastated infrastructure leave Ukrainians with no existential choice between going home and staying in their host country. This choice is unambiguous.

Yes, all of this is true. But it is also true that the Ukrainian labour market is gradually recovering. For the first time since the war began, average wages have risen and the number of vacancies is increasing. Workers are being sought in the centre and the south of the country. The number of vacancies is increasing, sometimes employers even fear staff shortages, and wages are gradually rising. After the January record, when the labour market saw the highest number of vacancies since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the trend is picking up. In February, according to job search portal Work.ua, the number of offers increased by 11 per cent compared to January.

The largest recovery dynamics in February compared with January showed Kirovograd (21%), Dnipropetrovsk (15%), Chernivtsi (15%), Mykolayiv (14%) and Chernihiv (14%) regions. As seen, the labour market is recovering in the south and centre of Ukraine.

For the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion the average salary rose from 15 to 16 thousand UAH. The highest salaries during the full-scale war are offered in the Volyn region (21,500 UAH), Ternopil region (23,500 UAH), Lviv region (19,500 UAH), Rivne region (21,000 UAH) and Zakarpattya region (21,000 UAH). As before, salaries in small localities are generally lower than in megacities. The highest salaries are offered to media buyers, international drivers, rickshaw pullers, realtors and diesel mechanics. To make it easier for readers to compare, let me remind you that the approximate exchange rate is 40 hryvnias to the US dollar.

Yes, there is no doubt that much will depend not only on the outcome of the war, but also on the pace of reconstruction of Ukraine. On whether the allies of that country will be willing to invest in its economy, build plants, factories, expand business, not to mention the importance of simply rebuilding Ukrainian towns and villages. It will all cost hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. And the world economy appears to be entering a new protracted crisis.

"Rules of the games" unchanging

As cynical as it may sound, for quite a few Ukrainians the current full-scale war has become an opportunity to travel around the world. For example, Olesya and her husband Bohdan (names changed) travelled to Australia, where Bohdan's sister has long been living. In Ukraine, Bohdan was constantly looking for work, while Olesya was cleaning flats. She only had enough money to make ends meet and could not afford to save.

So when the war broke out, Olesya and her two children moved to Australia to stay with her husband's family. She does exactly the same job as she did at home and takes care of an elderly Australian. The money she gets by Ukrainian standards is crazy - about 4000 Australian dollars. Naturally, she is trying to settle down in Australia. Especially since Bohdan has also moved there. He has already found a job on a construction crew, earning about 4500-5000 Australian dollars. In other words, the two of them earn more than 5,500 Australian dollars a month. Naturally, they have no desire to return home, but they have hopes to stay permanently in Australia. In addition, Bohdan left the country illegally for fear of being conscripted into the army. Alas, during the war this "business" in Ukraine is flourishing at full throttle. The other day, another criminal scheme to smuggle conscript-age men abroad was exposed in Chernivtsi. Evaders were sold deferment certificates worth 3 thousand US dollars. Earlier, the deputy head of one of the departments of the Ministry of Defence was detained while accepting a bribe for deregistration of persons liable for military service in order to travel abroad without hindrance.

And such kind of news about monstrous corruption during the war is, unfortunately, not uncommon. Which is another reason why many Ukrainians seek ways to legalize themselves in different countries of the world. And accusations of corruption, with facts and figures, are also made against the Ministry of Defence, which shocks Ukrainians, who clothed and clothed the army, as they say, from scratch, raising money from all over the world and buying everything they needed with the help of volunteers.

And unfortunately, there are a lot of such news about monstrous corruption during the war. Which is another reason forcing many Ukrainians to look for ways to legalize in different countries of the world. Moreover, accusations of corruption, with the voicing of facts and figures, are also addressed to the Ministry of Defense, which shocks Ukrainians who dressed and shoed the army via crowdfunding, collecting money all over the world and buying everything necessary with the help of volunteers.

At the same time, what is particularly shocking for many people is the money to finance various kinds of shows on Ukrainian TV channels from the country's state budget. For example, 33 million hryvnias will be spent by the state-run TV channel Dom on the talk show "Quiet Evening with Olena Kravets" hosted by former Kvartal 95 contestant Olena Kravets. In addition, one can see music and entertainment programmes on state-funded TV channels, which are funded from the state budget of the warring country.

It happens at a time when payments to soldiers on the front line are being cut! Naturally, those Ukrainians who are outside the country and have already found a well-paid job do yearn to return home, looking at all this. "I'd rather earn money here and send more money to help the AFU, my family and friends" - we often hear such speeches. As well as phrases like "I need to think about my children's future, but in Ukraine, it looks hazy".

Two fates, two different stories

Yes, there are as many people as there are opinions. Finally, I will tell you about two Azerbaijani people, for whom Ukraine has become their second home. Our first hero is Kamran Mustafayev. He visited Ukraine for the first time in May 2010. It was an acquaintance trip, without any strong plans to tie his fate with the country forever. But this first trip to Kyiv was enough for Kamran to understand for good that from now on he will be very much connected to the city. Obviously, making such a conceptual decision meant also finding a niche for business, in which he could engage in.

In 2011, Kamran decided to engage in the manufacture and sale of Azerbaijani and oriental sweets. Everything started with a rented private house on the outskirts of Kyiv, where they placed a purchased oven and a marble table. A confectioner from Türkiye was hired. Kamran distributed baklava he made in outlets, making new acquaintances and connections. Quite quickly the business made headway, production started to expand.

Regular customers also appeared among the largest supermarket chains, in particular, Selpo. As a result, at the peak of sales, even a tonne of baklava a day was sold. The profit growth also implied the emergence of plans to expand the business outside Ukraine, to Russia. To this end, Kamran even went to Moscow, purchased the necessary equipment, conducted crucial negotiations, and started production. But big politics put an obstacle for the first time.

Russia has annexed Crimea. And Kamran decided to wind up his business in that country. And he left tens of thousands of dollars worth of equipment there. "Ukraine became a second homeland for me, and it would have been wrong to continue working in Russia after the annexation of Crimea," Mustafayev recalls. Incidentally, he also had financial losses in Ukraine due to the devaluation of the hryvnia. But in the end, up until the start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, sales volumes were at 500-600 kilogrammes a day.

By then, Kamran had married. His betrothed was a Ukrainian woman, Tatiana. The couple had a son Malik in 2019. Plans for the future were brightest, but again the war intervened. This time it was a big one. The morning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, Kamran's family met in Kyiv, in the Goloseevsky district.

"It was a horror that I will remember for the rest of my life. The explosions of bombs, shells, and machine gun fire, the message on the TV channels that a big war had begun. Yes, many things pointed to its possible outbreak, but still, I cherished the hope that such a tragic turn of events could be avoided. Alas, it was not," sighs Kamran.

The decision to leave Kyiv came after it became obvious that the Russian side was also launching rocket attacks on residential buildings. They were literally in tears when they left. After all, no one knew when all this hell would end and what they would see of their beloved Kyiv on their return. They left, having left behind a lucrative business and a large number of unfulfilled plans.

One more family joined them. Azerbaijani family, friends of Kamran's, also decided to leave the relentlessly bombed Kyiv. They travelled in two cars to the Ukrainian-Moldovan border. And then, in Chisinau, they managed to fly the women and children to Baku. Kamran and his friend reached Azerbaijan by car, via Romania, Bulgaria, Türkiye, and Georgia. Five days on the road, taking turns at the wheel - it was a very arduous journey.

In Baku, Kamran and his family stayed for two months to recover from the shock of remembering the bombing of peaceful Kyiv. After which, at the invitation of Tatiana's relatives, he and his son travelled to Manchester. There they remain to this day. Tatiana has already got a prestigious job, and Kamran is also working part-time, studying on his own. But their dreams and their worries are with Ukraine. They help financially by donating to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. "We dream of a quick victory for Ukraine. Azerbaijan has defeated the Armenian occupiers and Ukraine will defeat the Russian occupiers. We have no doubt that this will be the case. Neither do we doubt that after victory, in the next few years, Ukraine will become one of the fastest-growing states in Europe," says Kamran.

Our second hero is Idris Jafarov. He is a well-known TV presenter, producer, and video blogger in Azerbaijan. He moved to Ukraine in 2013. Having previously studied European countries for permanent residence, he visited Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. But it was Ukraine that became his second homeland. "I visited Kyiv in 2012 as part of an international project, and I immediately realized that I would feel comfortable living in this city. Anyone who has been in the capital of Ukraine will confirm my words, there is a special air of freedom here," Idris says.

He stresses that no one lives in Ukraine looking back at the opinions of neighbours, acquaintances and strangers. Here everyone lives for himself, creating personal comfort and not preventing everyone around him from doing exactly the same. Other European countries, with their, as Jafarov sees it, enormous taxes and grey, boring life, were very much inferior to pre-war Ukraine. "It is also important to note that in 10 years of living in Ukraine, I have never encountered any manifestations of nationalism. It is a country where people of different religions, nationalities and colours live peacefully, happily and freely," stresses our interviewee.

He has never felt that he is somewhere abroad. "Three hours by plane, and you are in Baku. That is why I often visited Azerbaijan myself, and my friends flew to me. And you could fly from Kyiv to Europe very cheaply, which, alas, could not be said about Baku. In addition, there were and still are many Azerbaijani restaurants in Kyiv and the Azerbaijani diaspora in Ukraine is very active and influential. So Ukraine is one of the best countries in the world to live in and develop," stresses Idris.

That is exactly what he has been doing himself. Cooperating with Ukrainian and European performers, organizing tours, and shooting music videos - that was his element. It was Idris Jafarov who brought in Javid Mammmadov, who caused a sensation in the television project The Voice of Ukraine. He also organised concerts in Ukraine by Chingiz Mustafayev and other stars of the Azerbaijani stage. "Kyiv welcomed me, and became my new home in every sense of the word. It is where I bought my own flat, where I dreamed and made plans. I couldn't imagine in my darkest dreams that this beautiful city would be bombed by those who called themselves 'brothers' of the Ukrainians," Idris recalls sadly.

The war found him in Baku, where he arrived at the end of January 2022 on business. His return ticket to Kyiv was for March 3. But on February 24, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops began, and all flights to Kyiv were cancelled. As a result, Jafarov's return to Ukraine was put on hold for a long time. He is now in Baku and has become co-owner of a production company that organizes concerts and other projects. But with all his heart and soul he is with Ukraine. He, like Kamran Mustafayev, has repeatedly made remittances to help the AFU. "I am confident that Ukraine will win. I dream and see when peace, tranquility, and prosperity will return to the lives of Ukrainians. I am sure that Kyiv will become even more beautiful and all the Ukrainian cities destroyed during this war will be rebuilt. This is how it should be and this is how it will be," said Idris Jafarov.

Thousands of Azerbaijanis who lived in Ukraine before the war and who live here now are of the same opinion. Many of them are fighting for Ukraine. There is also a list of over 30 Azerbaijanis who have died fighting for this beautiful country that is so close to us. And this is what makes our countries and people closer and more comprehensible to each other.

Akbar Hasanov

Caliber.Az