Why Pashinyan opted to attend Erdogan's inauguration?
Farhad Mammadov's viewpoint

POLITICS  05 June 2023 - 11:55

Prime Minister Pashinyan's participation in the inauguration of the Turkish President can be regarded as Armenia's successful attempt to adjust to the realities of the new regional policy. The Armenian leadership had expected several developments, among which was the victory of the opposition - the most desirable option. However, Erdogan won the election!

Head of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov shared his thoughts on his Telegram channel, Caliber.Az reports.

"Pashinyan took a difficult step - he flew to the inauguration ceremony in Ankara, realizing that it was better to choose the lesser of two evils. Commendable... Inside he can explain anything he likes, but on the outside, it becomes more and more difficult to manipulate expressions, and if the president of Azerbaijan or Türkiye is in the negotiation room it is impossible at all!

The dynamics of the negotiation process force us to submit to inertia and go for decisions. During this period, the Armenian leadership, namely Pashinyan, should listen more carefully to President Ilham Aliyev and to the tone and substance of the Azerbaijani leader's proposals. These proposals are still on the table and are of a constructive nature. In this context, the extent to which the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders will now communicate in private, the chances of peace in general, and a peace agreement in particular, will increase!

Let's dwell upon the dynamics of the talks:

Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers are expected to meet in the US on June 12; Ankara has announced via the media a likely meeting between the Azerbaijani president and the Armenian prime minister (?!); the deputy prime ministers responsible for unblocking successfully wimped out on the decision on unblocking and agreed on next contacts; US special envoy Bono visited the region under the guise of high-profile events and brought US proposals on points that cause contradictions between the parties – so to speak, they are preparing a meeting of foreign ministers in the United States.

Thus, the negotiating agenda remains unchanged, a peace treaty, determination of the principles for defining the border, unblocking and, in the background, humanitarian actions. The markers that the process is on a constructive track will be an exchange of detained servicemen, but so far this has not happened.

The statements by the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, should, in my view, be treated philosophically. This representative of the Armenian leadership is already a threat to Armenia's security by his statements, and this was hinted at by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry in its reaction to his statements.

In all of Grigoryan's blather, the passage that Armenia is not going to provide functions to Russia at the border and customs points at the entrance and exit to the Zangazur corridor deserves attention. This was, in principle, intended - unblocking is now more of an Armenian-Russian track than an Armenian-Azerbaijani one. The statement about the deadline of the peace treaty "by the end of the year" is, of course, wishful thinking. Azerbaijan has prioritised a peace treaty, and will consistently remove obstacles to achieving a peace treaty. Just as it has established the checkpoint, it now demonstrates the following obstacles - the remnants of Armenian forces in Karabakh, the complete demilitarization of the region, and the resource provision of Karabakh by Armenia.

Armenia's room for manoeuvre is narrowing, both on the political and diplomatic track and 'on the ground'. Azerbaijan expects concrete results from the negotiation process, as voiced by President Ilham Aliyev. The situation in the region only strengthens Azerbaijan's position and weakens Armenia's. Under these circumstances, the best advice to Pashinyan from his Western partners is to take decisions on a peace treaty. Otherwise, conditions will change rapidly, leading to disastrous results for Armenia and the Armenians of Karabakh," Mammadov wrote.

Caliber.Az