French intelligence's role in tug of war inside Armenia's Security Service
Operation "Defamation" - Exclusive by Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  24 June 2023 - 11:48

At a time when many European media, in particular the authoritative POLITICO, are drawing attention to the fact that the Fifth Republic, under the Macron president, is literally bursting at the seams after a series of unpopular decisions by the government, and Paris is being turned away in Africa, France clearly shows its intention to take a foothold in the South Caucasus, where its younger sister, Armenia, holding arms out in a welcoming gesture. The latter, it must be admitted, is not averse to changing its former overlord in the face of Russia in favour of financially richer France.

It would seem that the aspirations of Armenia and France coincide. But everything is not so simple. It turns out that not everyone in Armenia is prepared to meekly comply with the wishes of Paris.

Moreover, we are talking about serious state officials, who have the power and resources in their hands. One of them is the director of the National Security Service of Armenia, Major-General Armen Abazyan, who does not support the idea of placing the country under a French protectorate. This is where the French intelligence service, DGSE, steps in to discredit Abazyan in order to remove him from the leadership of the NSS.

The website, or as it is often called, Intelligence Online, which is openly linked to the French intelligence services, yesterday, June 23, published an article with the characteristic title "A generational rift in Armen Abazyan's National Security Service". The article focuses on Armen Abazyan, the director of the National Security Service of Armenia, whom the French intelligence services portray as fiercely pro-Russian and blindly following Moscow's instructions. French agents who are now widely represented in the EU mission in Armenia "leaked" this factual information to Intelligence Online.

In particular, the article makes special emphasis on the fact that Abazyan served in the Russian border troops deployed in Armenia in 1993-1994. So, according to the French special services, he is closely connected to the Russian FSB. Let us explain: in Soviet times, border guards were part of the KGB, then, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they were an independent structure for 10 years, and in 2003 they rejoined the FSB.

It is noted that junior and senior officers of the NSS oppose the exchange of information with the Russian Federal Security Service, which then allegedly ends up at the disposal of Azerbaijan. Paris is also notably concerned over the possible opening of the Zangazur corridor. Notably, this concern is projected through the prism of Moscow's support for the corridor and thus directs the attention of Armenian revanchists against Russia via its traditional enemy, Azerbaijan.

According to diplomatic sources at Caliber.Az, the DGSE is relying on one of the people closest to Prime Minister Pashinyan, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, to 'eliminate' Abazian. The latter, according to the information we have, is literally at odds with the head of the NSC. Abazyan does not want to bow to Grigoryan, who is responsible for supervising all law enforcement agencies in Armenia.

Therefore, the secretary of the Security Council (ironically, he is the nephew of one of the most fierce critics of Pashinyan, Colonel-General Movses Hakobyan) joined "the game" of the French secret services. Here their interests totally coincide since France wants an outspoken Francophile to head Armenia's main secret service, while Grigoryan wants to get rid of Abazyan, who does not obey him.

But this is not the only interest of Grigoryan. The fact is that Abazyan provides Pashinyan with more realistic information about the state of the country, particularly about the balance of power in the region, etc. And this data considerably restrain Pashinyan from revanchism. This, in turn, greatly irritates France and Armen Grigoryan, a native of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. Their plan is to put their own man, who will be more loyal to them.

Then, on the basis of various memos from the eventual new head of the NSS, push the leadership to cooperate with the revanchists in order to provoke new tensions in the region, which would open up more room for Paris to manoeuvre in the region.

Everything is more or less clear with Grigoryan. He is the opportunist who seeks to get rid of the recalcitrant head of the security services, although perhaps, as a Karabakh Armenian, Grigoryan also has personal revanchist motives. But Paris's ultimate aim is naturally not limited to Grigoryan's tactical vision. France is actively working to turn Armenia into its regional proxy in the medium term.

Given Armenia's longstanding and once-deep relationship with Russia, Paris' ambition is to turn the "country of stones" into a regional intelligence bridgehead, as, for example, the West has done in the Baltic states. In other words, Armenia is a green light for France to penetrate and establish itself in the South Caucasus region.

Given the fact that Armenians are perfectly familiar with regional realities, and are integrated into Russian society, as well as have opportunities for information gathering in other countries of the region, including Türkiye and Iran, Yerevan may become an effective resource in the intelligence activities of France.

Naturally, we cannot discount the factor of veiled Iranian-French cooperation in the region. France is known to support the ayatollah regime in such a "sensitive" issue for the French, Persians, and Armenians as opposing the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance. Paris is prepared to do much to ensure that Iran continues to regard itself as a "regional superpower", which gives it the strength to confront Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

However, spies are people driven by the national interest of their country, and in this context, French-Iranian cooperation is situational in nature. In strategic terms, Armenia's transition under the French protectorate does not correspond to the interests of Tehran itself, which has its own obvious regional ambitions.

As the line goes in the famous "Saw" franchise, "The game begins". So far Armen Abazyan has managed to maintain his position, but internal and external pressure on him will intensify. He is not only still one of those close to Pashinyan but retains his position longer than his predecessors - wiretapping busted Vanezyan, inexperienced Karamyan, and feckless Hambardzumyan.

Time will show whether he will manage to resist the French pressure in the future, or will fall prey to the DGSE-Armen Grigoryan tandem. Here one should not disregard Moscow which is unlikely to want further strengthening of the French factor in Armenia. In Azerbaijan, we will keep patient and watch for now. Armenia faces "interesting" times, and we have great doubts that it will be able to survive them painlessly. The stakes are too high, and every player wants more.

Caliber.Az