"Pashinyan to lead Armenia to worse scenario than in Ukraine"
    Russian expert for Caliber.Az

    INTERVIEWS  11 September 2023 - 11:03

    Matanat Nasibova

    Caliber.Az presents an interview with Russian expert and leading analyst of the Association for Border Cooperation Sergei Borovikov.

    - As you know, Armenia, in addition to the daily shelling of Azerbaijani positions, is also pulling a large number of weapons and military equipment to the border with Azerbaijan. Is there any possibility that it is preparing for new military clashes?

    - Armenia is currently preparing for joint military drills with the United States, which clearly implies some movement of servicemen and military equipment. This is on the one hand, and on the other hand, the movement of military equipment of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the border area has been noted, so this event is apparently of a mirror-symmetrical nature. Unfortunately, it is most likely that an increase in general tension in the region will be inevitable.

    - The Armenians of the Garabagh region refuse to accept food supplies from Azerbaijan provided to them by the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society. The junta leadership is preventing the reintegration of the Armenian residents of this region into Azerbaijani society. What do you think they are trying to achieve in this case?

    - As for the food cargo from Azerbaijan, I believe that Armenians see the acceptance of humanitarian supplies as a manifestation of their weakness, which is why they reject them.

    - What does Yerevan seek by blackmailing Moscow with turning to the West?

    - The Pashinyan government initially came to power under the influence of the West and with the support of Soros, so it was clear that it would play by the rules of the West, without regard for any Armenian interests, which, in fact, is what is being observed now. Against this background, it is obvious that some Ukrainian scenario is taking place in Armenia.

    In its time, the pro-Western government of Ukraine also pursued an ill-conceived policy under the influence of the West, which led the country to the current catastrophe. There is every chance that Pashinyan will lead Armenia to something similar, only in a much worse version.

    - The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Armenia of unfriendly steps, in particular, launching the process of ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, a trip to Kyiv by the wife of Armenian Prime Minister Anna Hakobyan to deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and holding military exercises with the United States on the territory of Armenia. What is Russia warning its closest ally about?

    - Armenia's numerous unfriendly steps towards Russia are a consistent policy of the pro-Western government and pro-Western forces of influence in the country. And one should realise that this long process, which goes against Armenia's interests, is not going anywhere. The West has surrendered its allies with ease before, causing some mischief towards Russia is more important for it than Armenia.

    So as long as the pro-Western leadership of Armenia functions, this state of affairs will continue, and to what extent Armenians will be able to change the internal political situation in the country is, frankly speaking, a mystery to me.

    - How do you see the future of Armenia outside the Eurasian projects and is it possible at all?

    - The future of Armenia outside the Eurasian projects seems to me extremely sad. Under the influence of the West, it will close its only nuclear power plant and will remain extremely problematic in terms of energy in an unfriendly environment. What it will do next is also unclear. The West will leave it to its fate in this unfriendly environment. Accordingly, this scenario seems to me suicidal for Armenia. But the pro-Western government, as a rule, is not concerned about this and can calmly lead Armenia along the path of this suicide.

    - How will Russia react if Azerbaijan starts cleansing Garabagh from the remnants of Armenian separatists?

    - Russia will react negatively to any intensification of military action in the region, but to what extent it still has any instruments of reaction other than expressions of concern by our Foreign Ministry is a rather complicated question. But given the general military and political situation in the region and the logistical difficulties, it is unlikely to be a military response, but rather some kind of complex bargaining.

    - Will Moscow use any instruments to influence Yerevan in response to its anti-Russian policy?

    - Russia would be ready to apply some measures of influence on Yerevan in connection with its anti-Russian policy, but it has very few such measures. I do not see any instruments and levers of influence for Russia. If, let's say, the military base in Gyumri is removed and Armenia is left to its own fate, it would be an instructive move for Yerevan, but that is exactly what the West wants. Consequently, there is a difficult situation of balancing interests and opportunities.

    On the other hand, Russia realises that the pro-Western government in Yerevan will not last forever, and if Armenia is going to preserve its statehood to some extent, it will only be possible with the coming to power of a pro-Eurasian government. And whether Armenians need it or not, let them figure it out for themselves. This is a question of the country's survival.


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