"Russia potentially ready for Armenia’s withdrawal from CSTO"
    Expert opinion on Caliber.Az

    INTERVIEWS  03 December 2023 - 10:08

    Matanat Nasibova

    Caliber.Az has held a blitz interview with Russian sociologist, political analyst and public figure Alexander Zhukovsky.

    - Mr Zhukovsky, will the recent anti-Russian demarches in Armenia bring relations between Moscow and Yerevan to the point of no return?

    - Anti-Russian demarches have been observed in Armenia over the past years, and have become traditional. Russia itself also carries out many demarches in all directions. Of course, the Armenia-Russia relations will worsen. I think that ultimately the created tension in relations between Moscow and Yerevan may reach a critical point and lead to the point of no return.

    - Will this happen after Armenia leaves the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)?

    - Potentially, all CSTO member states, including Russia, are ready for Armenia’s withdrawal.

    - Why does the Armenian leadership hamper the reintegration of the Armenians of Karabakh into Azerbaijani society?

    - I think that the reason is the elementary inertia of the past. Public reactions are more conservative and lasting than political trends. The Armenian leadership is dependent on internal public sentiment and pressure from the Armenian diaspora.

    - How do you see Armenia’s future in case of breaking off relations with Russia?

    - Russia is at odds with itself. Old stereotypes are crumbling, new ones have not formed yet. There is time for daring people and decisions.

    As for Armenia’s fate, if it cooperates with the West, this hardly promises bright prospects for it.

    - The Russian expert community does not rule out that after the end of the war in Ukraine, Russia will completely deal with Armenia. What tools of influence can Moscow apply to Yerevan in such a situation?

    - After solving the current problems, there will be no time for external aggressions. Demarches, rather than Russia’s unsteady political or economic pressure on Armenia, may be observed.

    It is obvious that Russia and Ukraine are fighting to the point of attrition, and the war is likely to drag on for an indefinite period.

    - What processes will be in the South Caucasus in the foreseeable future?

    - Unfortunately, there will be tense processes. There are too many external processes and internal contradictions in this region, which create additional risks and threats in the Caucasus.


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