7 December Joint Statement: a precursor to imminent peace or a potential damp squib?
Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov/VIDEO

ANALYTICS  12 December 2023 - 12:57

Every instance of momentum has been treacherously short-lived in the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks, but the post-7 December spell looks different in a number of ways, contends Orkhan Amashov in his latest ‘Contemplations’.

Every instance of momentum has been treacherously short-lived in the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks. However, a joint statement issued by Baku and Yerevan on 7 December has spawned a new kind of impetus. It has given rise to a type of momentum that differs from those gained hitherto, considerably increasing hopes that a long-awaited deal could come unexpectedly, at a moment’s notice, possibly, but not necessarily, even on the eve of the New Year.

Of course, cautious optimism should pervade our thinking and over-excitement is to be avoided for the sake of one’s sanity and morale. It is always infinitely better to be positively surprised, rather than ineptly baffled or disillusioned.

Let us recall what the statement says, appreciate that which renders it a unique development and why it can be seen as a potential precursor to the framework peace deal.

Content digest  

In the joint statement, the sides, sharing “the view that there is a historic chance to achieve long-awaited peace in the region”, reaffirmed “their intention to normalise relations and reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

This part is declarative, and we will see its updated version either in the preamble or Article 1 of the prospective peace agreement.

The joint declaration also entails two types of goodwill gestures of strong confidence-building propensity. The first relates to the fate of the detained soldiers “driven by the values of humanism”, with Azerbaijan releasing 32 Armenian military servicemen and Armenia releasing two Azerbaijani military servicemen.

So far, so good. And, very interestingly, according to the joint statement, Armenia is to back Azerbaijan’s bid “to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, withdrawing its own candidacy”. In turn, Azerbaijan is to support “the Armenian candidature for the Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership”. It is now confirmed that COP29 will be held in Azerbaijan.

Unique traits 

The joint statement is the first of its kind, bearing no signature of any external mediator, being achieved on a bilateral footing. Previous exchanges of detainees between Baku and Yerevan were via the active involvement of third parties. As to the timing of the statement, which was immediately subsequent to US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien’s trip to Azerbaijan, one cannot exclude the possible American factor for the sake of reason and open-mindedness. However, nothing should be deemed as seriously casting aspersions on the bilateral nature of the achievement.

Over and above this, the idea of Azerbaijan and Armenian cooperation in international fora is, or rather was, unheard of, and a confidence-building measure of this type is surely bound to positively influence the atmospherics of Baku-Yerevan dynamics. Despite the tit-for-tat cases currently underway at the International Court of Justice and the European Court of Human Rights, this kind of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia could indeed be consequential.

And, the language of the statement is one of a nature having the necessary characteristics to be translated into a future peace deal.

Is peace now within reach?

It is upon the basis of these unique traits of the document that one can conjecture on whether it could lead to a peace deal.

First of all, it is self-evident that peace negotiations are at an advanced stage. President Aliyev, whilst addressing the participants of an international forum at ADA on 6 December and during his recent interview with Euronews, confirmed that there is no fundamental obstacle to the peace agreement. It is also the case that Azerbaijan’s recent proposals have been presented to some of the MPs at the Armenian Parliament, with the overall consensus seemingly pointing to the point of acquiescence.

Since the joint statement came as a surprise to many, one cannot help but surmise that the peace treaty itself could also emerge unexpectedly. It is worth remembering that Baku and Yerevan are not aiming to sign, at this juncture, a comprehensive peace treaty, but they will decide on a framework deal that will neither be very basic, nor too detailed. Again, framework deals usually set fundamentals that form the foundation of future agreements.

The momentum we have achieved now looks different. Although it may not necessarily lead to a year-end last-ditch peace deal, it is highly unlikely that the statement will prove a damp squib. As Neil Watson, a political analyst from Britain, commented recently, “Azerbaijan has always strived for bloodless peace, and now that the external players are relegated to the small back room, we are seeing forward traction.”

Caliber.Az