Azerbaijan-Armenia: the art of the possible and the nature of the beast
Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov/VIDEO

ANALYTICS  19 December 2023 - 09:24

As the positive traction achieved during the Azerbaijani-Armenian talks following the 7 December joint statement and a subsequent prisoner swap on 13 December needs further support, Orkhan Amashov considers the range of issues that keep the sides apart, currently complicating the attainment of a framework deal.

"On 13 December, I was in the Gazakh district of Azerbaijan, on the conditional state border with Armenia, to observe a prisoner swap between the sides, pursuant to the 7 December joint statement issued by Baku and Yerevan.

The mutual exchange of military servicemen was carried out without any incident, in a perfectly problem-free fashion, with the border guards and security services of both sides, so far as one can tell on the basis of the externally visible, demonstrating a great deal of professionalism. 

The prisoner swap pays a clear testament to the viability of the idea that Azerbaijan and Armenia are able to achieve an agreement and execute it bilaterally, without self-interested third-party involvement. The self-same could and must also hold true for the overall peace process.

Back to the scene in Gazakh… The released Armenian military servicemen appeared to be uniformly in good health and excellent spirits, possibly harbouring some regrets about leaving the comfort of Azerbaijani custody, one of whom waved his hand to us. The ICRC had checked the Armenian servicemen before their release and confirmed they were in robustly good health. 

Agshin Akhundov and Huseyn Babirov, the two Azerbaijani soldiers released from the doldrums of Armenian custody, looked happy and resolute. As to what happened to them during their nearly seven-month captivity, we will hear in explicit detail. By their own admission, some unlawful methods were utilised. Despite this, the ICRC checked the Azerbaijani servicemen and confirmed they were in good health.

The atmospherics of the peace process received a positive dose under the influence of this prisoner exchange. Momentum is still there, but there are countervailing factors complicating this process. 

First of all, any attempt to revitalise the Karabakh issue as an element of the peace process will backfire, as in the case of Charles Michel’s recent interview with Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty. The framework within which the EU Council President believes the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians, who are still in the area and may decide to return, should be protected is in line with the Azerbaijani constitution and international standards. This is 100 per cent commensurate with Baku’s long-standing position. But, from Azerbaijan’s standpoint, the whole Karabakh issue is now done and dusted, and any mention will not be tolerated, unless the reciprocal dignified and voluntary return of those Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia in the late 80s and early 90s is also included in the agenda, as stated by President Aliyev at ADA on 6 December. By mentioning Karabakh Armenians and saying nothing about Western Azerbaijanis, Michel shot himself in the foot, comme d’habitude. Alas.

Another issue is connected with Armenia’s demands regarding a security guarantor over the compliance of the provisions of a peace agreement. For Baku, this is a red line, and any involvement of a third party is to be avoided.

Regarding the delimitation of the state border between the sides, there is much work to be done. Baku and Yerevan agreed on the regulation for organising and holding joint working meetings between the border commissions on delimitation; however, the actual delimitation and subsequent demarcation could potentially take years, and the question is how far Azerbaijan and Armenia need to progress on this in advance of signing a framework deal. If it is too far in the distance, then an agreement is not in the offing, but if the sides strive to conclude a generic consensus, short of details, there is a ray of hope.

It is the nature of the beast, as the saying has it, that negotiations get tougher towards the end. We know that the bulk of the work regarding the framework document has already been achieved, despite very little publicity as to what has been agreed, to date. If Baku and Yerevan focus on the practicable, instead of trying to clarify everything, thereby overcomplicating the peace process with that which is not currently ‘fixable’, then a peace deal could be attained."

Caliber.Az