Armenian opposition, church heighten tensions amid border delimitation talks
Pashinyan navigates political turbulence

ANALYTICS  02 May 2024 - 14:10

Protests in Armenia, which started last week after Baku and Yerevan agreed on return of four villages in Gazakh district- Baghanis Ayrim, Ashaghi Askipara, Kheyrymli and Gizilhajili - to Azerbaijani control, are gaining momentum against the backdrop of growing revanchist sentiments in the country. According to Armenian media, opposition supporters daily block roads in Yerevan and regions, organize riots and public actions, while residents of villages of Tavush (Tovuzgala - Ed.) region bordering Azerbaijan protest against the border demarcation works. Thus, the day before, the protesters against the delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan blocked the traffic on the Armenia-Iran interstate highway near the town of Yeghegnadzor (Keshishkand) with tractors, and before that the protesters blocked the Yerevan-Gyumri road. Apart from that, in different parts of Yerevan, posters were put up, reproaching the population for indifference to the ongoing "surrender of Armenian lands", with inscriptions: "Get up before you surrender!".

By psychologically influencing the population, the opponents of the current government expect to further expand the geography of protests in the country. But so far they have not succeeded, because the Armenian society trusts Pashinyan's policy much more than the former ones in the person of the Karabakh clan leaders Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, who managed to loot the country and fill their own pockets. As a consequence, the overwhelming part of Armenian society does not take seriously the calls of representatives of the Karabakh clan to overthrow the current government.

But there is another, much more dangerous opponent of Pashinyan. And this is the Armenian Apostolic Church, which is literally on a knife-edge with Pashinyan. Now, with the beginning of the demarcation process, the Armenian Church is not abandoning its attempts to give the protests a mass character in order to provoke a large-scale anti-government march throughout Armenia. Head of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan actively participates in this campaign and provokes the riots. In this context, it should be noted that Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II, even on April 16, before the delimitation process began, receiving the head of the EU spy mission Markus Ritter in Echmiadzin, expressed "concern about the current tension and security, saying that Azerbaijan's encroachments and demands put Armenia in front of new security challenges, as well as jeopardize the peace negotiation process".

On the other hand, it should be noted that the destructive role of the Armenian Church is already openly recognized in Armenia. In particular, Hayk Sukiasyan, Vice-chairman of the Armenian Christian Democratic Party, publicly stated this to the Yerevan media, noting that it is the Armenian Church that wants Armenia to disintegrate. According to him, "the agenda of the opposition and the majority of those who are holding protests these days is the collapse of the statehood of the Republic of Armenia". Sukiasyan's objective position is also confirmed by yesterday's provocative statements of Artur Khachatryan, a member of the opposition "Armenia" Faction, who from the rostrum of the National Assembly, presenting the draft statement of the National Assembly on the process of delimitation and  demarcation of borders, stated that "everything that is going on in Armenia today under the guise of pilot delimitation of borders is nothing but surrendering parts of Armenia's territories to Azerbaijan". Khachatryan tried to convince the MPs that the process of border delimitation and demarcation, which has allegedly started, is underway without any legal justification, and proposed the project to the parliamentary faction of the opposition Armenia bloc, but it did not receive support in the parliament.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to convince the Armenian people that the return of four villages to Azerbaijan and the delimitation of the part of the border running in this direction is the only way to ensure the safety of local residents. At this stage, it is clear that the Armenian leadership is moving step by step towards a peaceful settlement, which is clearly welcomed in Baku. The fact that Baku and Yerevan were able to reach consensus on the issue of border delimitation is a primary condition on the way to signing a peace treaty, the parameters of which will soon be discussed by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Almaty. It is fundamentally important that the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan will take place without the participation of a third party, i.e. directly, without mediators.

This was the negotiation format put forward by official Baku back in the fall of 2023. As a reminder, then the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry proposed the Armenian side to continue peace talks without mediators either on the border of the two countries or on the territory of a third neutral country. Last time Mirzoyan and Bayramov held talks this February in Berlin involving German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock immediately after the meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference with the participation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Difficult to say how fruitful the upcoming meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Almaty will be, but it is clear that this format of negotiations is the most acceptable, as it will allow the parties to directly resolve problematic issues and possibly find new points of contact. We can only hope that Pashinyan and his team will consistently promote the peace agenda in the future, although it is clear that given the growing revanchist sentiments in Armenia, this will not be an easy task. Time will tell whether Pashinyan will be able to resist and show the political will to bring the negotiations to their logical conclusion - the signing of the long-awaited peace agreement....

Caliber.Az