France turns against Macron
Will Europe set stage for President Le Pen?
WORLD 02 May 2024 - 07:03
The Guardian carries an article about the French president who is trailing the hard right – and forthcoming European elections could leave him a political lame duck, Caliber.Az reprints the article.
In the latest of his visionary speeches on the future of Europe, Emmanuel Macron called for the EU to transform itself into a military power or face “death”. Yet his own presidency of France may be about to enter a long twilight zone unless he can reverse his party’s deepening slump in June’s European parliament election.
Macron’s unpopularity is the main reason why his centrist pro-European Renaissance party is trailing a distant second in opinion polls behind Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally (RN). Le Pen’s list is led by Jordan Bardella, 29, the rising star in the populist anti-immigration party. Renaissance, whose list is headed by little-known MEP Valérie Hayer, is down to 17.5 per cent in the latest survey while the RN is on 31 per cent. The two parties were neck-and-neck in the last European election, five years ago.
The EU ballot is seen as a test because it is the last scheduled national vote in France before the 2027 presidential election, in which Le Pen is expected to make her fourth, and most promising, bid for power.
Macron is barely two years into his second term in the Élysée Palace, yet lacking a parliamentary majority at home and with his government under the permanent threat of a no-confidence motion, he risks becoming a premature lame duck. His European influence is also at stake because the liberal group (Renew Europe) his party sits with in the European parliament is set to lose seats, and the number of liberal leaders is also shrinking as European electorates swing to the right. Besides, France’s standing is diminished in the eyes of many by its chronic high budget deficit and mounting debt, which is set to incur an EU disciplinary procedure after the election.
The 46-year-old president mostly has himself to blame for his political predicament. He has so personalised his style of governance that voters blame him for everything from the cost of living to the rise of youth violence and the risk of terrorism during this summer’s Paris Olympic Games.
“Macron thinks it doesn’t matter that no one has heard of his lead candidate because he’s convinced he can swing the pro-European vote behind his name,” a senior MEP in the president’s own group told me. “Everything is decided at the Élysée so we are waiting for the oracle.”
The party still hasn’t agreed who will be on its list of candidates, due to be announced on May 7. Intense struggles continue behind the scenes between incumbent MEPs clinging to their seats and the four allied centrist parties seeking to place their own candidates, while the need for gender balance and pressure to field some new faces all complicate the task. Of the French centrists’ 23 seats in the outgoing parliament, pollsters reckon only 13 are safe on current ratings.
Renaissance faces growing competition for centre-left voters from the other surprise star of the campaign so far, Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the small Place Publique party, who heads the Socialist list and is credited with 13 per cent in the latest polls. The intellectual son of philosopher André Glucksmann, campaigning on a platform of massive support for Ukraine and greater social justice, is hoovering up disaffected Macron supporters as well as leftwingers alienated by the strident pro-Palestinian rhetoric of hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Indeed, Mélenchon’s political career could be another casualty of this election. If, as polls suggest, his La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) party finishes a distant sixth in the vote, trailing not only the Socialists but also the Ecologists, the 72-year-old firebrand’s ambition to lead the French left into the 2027 presidential election will look threadbare.
At the other end of the spectrum, the mainstream conservative party, Les Républicains (LR), could be another victim of the June vote. The once mighty Gaullist movement, riven by in-fighting and policy rifts, looks set to be dwarfed again by Le Pen’s RN, which is consolidating its position as the leading force on the French right, and the only one that has not yet had a chance at power.
Political scientist and pollster Chloé Morin argued in a book entitled On aura tout essayé (“We’ve tried everything else”), that Le Pen could win the next presidential election because French voters feel that successive presidents of the right, left and centre have failed to solve their problems or reverse what many perceive as the decline of their country.
That may be premature. There’s a long way till 2027 and Macron still has options to regain momentum, even if none is easy. He could reshuffle his government again, but he did that recently to little lasting effect. He could dissolve parliament and force a new legislative election if a no-confidence motion passed, but that might well hand victory to the RN. He could also call a referendum on some popular issue, but voters might use it to punish an unpopular president.
Perhaps his best hope of escaping his domestic predicament is to seize the vacant leadership of Europe and drive forward the agenda he set out in his speech at the Sorbonne. He called for a defence build-up funded by joint borrowing and a more dirigiste and protectionist economic policy to compete with the US and China. However, he will face a tough task convincing frugal Germans to raise common debt to fund joint defence spending, free-trading Dutch, Nordics and Poles to accept a “buy European” policy and smaller states to give up their national vetoes over EU foreign policy.
Macron’s big vision for Europe may not save his party from a drubbing in the election, but it might just position him for a comeback on the EU stage if France can win those arguments.
Caliber.Az
1
|
UN admits error: Gaza death toll overestimated, women and children nearly 50% fewer Israeli FM urges Guterres to resign
14 May 2024 - 09:34
|
2
|
Latvia, Azerbaijan forge closer economic ties Exploring investment opportunities
14 May 2024 - 17:36
|
3
|
Paris' conundrum: Pashinyan over Karabakh clan Assessing France's position on Baku-Yerevan talks
14 May 2024 - 10:40
|
4
|
All eyes on November 2024: Baku, Yerevan on verge of historic peace deal Nations poised to reconcile without mediators
15 May 2024 - 10:33
|
5
|
Ethnic minorities in Iran struggle against exploitation amid resource wealth Ethnic minority marginalization
14 May 2024 - 17:59
|
Turkish diplomat criticizes France's unjustified claims against Azerbaijan
17 May 2024 - 10:48
Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran relocates to new address
Statement by MFA spox17 May 2024 - 10:36
Albanian Deputy PM advocates deepened coop with Azerbaijan on gasification projects
17 May 2024 - 10:36
US imposes new sanctions on Russia arms dealers Gazaryan, Mkrtychev, Budnev
17 May 2024 - 10:33
Armenia clarifies stance on Russian border guards amid withdrawal discussions
17 May 2024 - 10:24
Georgia, Türkiye ink Memorandum of Understanding to boost energy cooperation
17 May 2024 - 10:12
Nauru's president receives formal invitation to COP29 from Azerbaijan
17 May 2024 - 10:00
Azerbaijan, Ethiopia reaffirm commitment to strengthen partnership
PHOTO17 May 2024 - 09:36
Albania airs plans to establish embassy in Azerbaijan
Announcement by Deputy PM17 May 2024 - 09:24
Azerbaijan, US focus on enhancing partnership, COP29
17 May 2024 - 09:10
How Iran’s covert influence threatening American democracy
17 May 2024 - 09:00
Ukraine aiming its ATACMS rockets at Russia’s most fearsome MiG-31 interceptors
17 May 2024 - 07:04
Germany’s government barely holding together
17 May 2024 - 05:09
US tariffs on Chinese green tech spur trade tensions
Opinion by Financial Times17 May 2024 - 03:05
The Economist: Xi-Putin partnership is not a marriage of convenience
17 May 2024 - 01:03
Foreign Affairs: Taiwan is the new Berlin
16 May 2024 - 23:01
Azerbaijani official's speech on colonialism circulated as UN official document
16 May 2024 - 21:24
Georgia supports border delimitation process between Armenia & Azerbaijan
16 May 2024 - 20:47
Armenian archbishop calls for urgent ousting of government over ‘criminal path’
16 May 2024 - 20:38
Erdogan: Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal represents historic opportunity
16 May 2024 - 20:29
Robert Fico's condition deemed grave, president-elect briefly visits amid health concerns
16 May 2024 - 20:19
Russia hails any peace initiatives for Ukraine - Kremlin spokesman
16 May 2024 - 20:01
EBRD, USAID forge partnership to boost Trans-Caspian transport route development
16 May 2024 - 19:41
Israel increases its military contingent in Rafah
16 May 2024 - 19:23
South Africa airs plans to open diplomatic mission in Azerbaijan
16 May 2024 - 19:10
Azerbaijan: A beacon of religious tolerance
The Washington Times article16 May 2024 - 18:58
Azerbaijani embassy in Latvia marks Independence Day & diplomatic relations
16 May 2024 - 18:54
Netherlands scuttles Russia’s participation in UNESCO International Conference
16 May 2024 - 18:46
US interior department staffer is first Jewish Biden appointee to resign over war in Gaza
16 May 2024 - 18:33
Microsoft offers relocation to hundreds of China-based AI staff amid US-China tech tensions
16 May 2024 - 18:20
Speaker of Latvian Saeima to visit Azerbaijan
16 May 2024 - 18:07
Slovak MFA expresses appreciation to Ilham Aliyev for demonstrating support
16 May 2024 - 17:55
Bucharest chosen as base for joint power company of four nations
16 May 2024 - 17:42
France's coercive colonial policies in New Caledonia
Hypocrisy, repression, struggle for self-determination16 May 2024 - 17:29
Political unrest in Armenia & Georgia amid Azerbaijan's rebuilding efforts in Karabakh
South Caucasus in flux16 May 2024 - 17:18
Assassination attempt on Slovak PM as a harbinger of tension in Europe
Proponents of peace under fire16 May 2024 - 17:06
Azerbaijan, China explore solar energy cooperation in liberated areas
16 May 2024 - 16:55
Azerbaijani, Armenian Parliament Speakers meet in Geneva
16 May 2024 - 16:54
Rheinmetall to open air defence manufacturing plant in Ukraine
16 May 2024 - 16:42
Georgian PM off to Türkiye for high-level meetings
16 May 2024 - 16:30