Fallout of France's misguided policies in Azerbaijan
Miscalculations and backlashes

INTERVIEWS  27 June 2024 - 12:44

France continues to take steps to destabilize the South Caucasus. In this series of recent events we can note the call of the French Senate to limit the activities of French companies, in particular Total, in the extraction of natural gas in Azerbaijan and the increase in the supply of French weapons to Armenia.

What in principle is Paris trying to achieve in the South Caucasus and how can we characterize such a small-minded, ambitious policy of Paris in the region?

Caliber.Az correspondent asked the foreign experts to respond to these questions.

According to Andrey Petrov, Deputy Director General at Vestnik Kavkaza information & analytics agency and Russian political scientist, France has become a hostage of its ill-conceived policy in the South Caucasus. The ill-conceived policy lies in the fact that Paris mistakenly believed that France would not get any negative effects for itself from the attempts to upset the balance built between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the 44-day war - there would be only pluses.

"In Paris, they thought that now it is especially profitable to support Armenia, getting the votes of the Armenian diaspora in France, to fulfill the order of NATO and the United States in the spirit of anti-Russian policy to destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus, thus earning bonuses for themselves in foreign and domestic policy. But this is a very stupid position, without any deep calculations. Of course, Azerbaijan began to respond to the extent that it is possible, safe and correct for it. France clearly did not expect that Baku's response would be adequate and very impressive.

Because Azerbaijan, following its diplomatic traditions, acts within the framework of international law - unified and unambiguous for all countries of the world. What does this mean? It means that if France supports Armenian separatism and does not respect the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Baku, accordingly, will support the right of French colonies to independence. And this is a completely honest and fair position. French politicians led by Macron did not expect such a reaction from Baku, and therefore they found themselves hostages of their policy. As they say, we got what we fought for.

France underestimated Azerbaijan and overestimated its capabilities. Therefore, I think in the near future we will continue to observe a number of stupid, I emphasize this word, and absurd moves of France in the South Caucasus, including the supply of weapons to Armenia," Petrov said.

In his turn, Kyrgyz political scientist and candidate of political sciences Umar Mutaliyev believes that France makes an incredible number of mistakes in its foreign policy, and some of the most global ones are in the South Caucasus. The new cabinet and the new French president will have to deal with all these mistakes.

"Macron's France has practically exhausted all its accumulated resource of geopolitical and economic advantages, foolishly and in vain wasted it on intrigues. Over the past few years, we have seen high-profile failures of French foreign policy - from the loss of France's colonial power to the defeat in the South Caucasus. So some experts are now seriously discussing how France will get out of the hole Macron has dragged it into, how it will try to regain its former political weight and adequate diplomatic face.

In my opinion, it was in the South Caucasus that France's policy finally broke its spears and proved its complete ineffectiveness by acting not as an arbiter but as an opponent of the peace processes launched by Azerbaijan after the 44-day war, which, in fact, naturally put everything in its place. Paris tried to get into the game and, in fact, broke its teeth. After such a fiasco, the Macron government  and France fell catastrophically, and everything that Paris is doing now in the South Caucasus is a pathetic attempt to get back after a political knockout and defeat," Mutaliyev concluded.

Caliber.Az