Macron's "Renaissance" crumbles amid far-right's election ascendancy
Expert insights

INTERVIEWS  30 June 2024 - 10:56

European media report that Macron is in danger of collapse - Marine Le Pen's party "National Union" can get an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly of France, according to the Telegram channel "Bild na Russkom". It is noted that the country's President Emmanuel Macron and his liberal party "Renaissance" will suffer a resounding defeat in the elections to the National Assembly, which will be held in two rounds - the first on June 30 and the second on July 7.

According to a poll conducted by the Odoxa Institute on behalf of the Le Nouvel Obs magazine, Le Pen's party claims 250-300 parliamentary seats. At the same time, it needs to get 289 mandates to obtain an absolute majority. "According to the same poll, Marine Le Pen's party can get 33 per cent of the votes in the first round of voting, the New Popular Front created by leftist forces – 28 per cent, and Macron's "Renaissance" - only 19 per cent", - writes TE.

To recall, two weeks ago Macron announced the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of new elections, after his party won only 14.6% of the votes in the elections to the European Parliament, and the "National Union" Le Pen won them an unqualified victory with a result of 31.3 per cent of the votes. "I am calling early parliamentary elections. The first round will be held on June 30 and the second round on July 7," the French president said in a televised address to the nation.

The balance of power is interesting. If we assume that, according to the results of the poll, Le Pen's party will take an absolute majority in the French parliament, how can this affect the country's foreign policy? For example, it is no secret that Paris now demonstrates a one-sided line of behaviour in the South Caucasus, supporting Armenia in everything and confronting Azerbaijan on many issues. Can the victory of the right wing in the National Assembly lead to a change in this policy of France in one direction or another?

Caliber.Az addressed these questions to foreign experts.

Igor Ignatchenko, a Russian francophile, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, believes that if we take as a basis a scenario in which France's far-right parties and Marine Le Pen's movement win early elections to the National Assembly, receive an absolute majority of votes there and can even form a Cabinet of Ministers headed by a far-right prime minister, then there will be a period of "coexistence" in French history.

"This will not be the first time this will happen. Let's remember when the president of the Fifth Republic, socialist François Mitterrand coexisted with the prime minister, neo-Gollist and right-wing politician Jacques Chirac or, on the contrary, when the president of the Fifth Republic in France was Jacques Chirac and his prime minister was a representative of the Socialist Party of France Lionel Jospin. Thus, there has already been a period of coexistence of two different political forces in power in France," the expert states.

According to him, one should not forget that France is a strong presidential republic under the Constitution of the Fifth Republic.

"The president has very broad powers there and, accordingly, foreign policy, defense and security issues are mostly the prerogative of the president, not the prime minister. So it is obvious here that Macron is definitely not going to surrender his levers of power. Besides, the new coexistence may become quite an interesting period of political life in France. It is clear that Macron and his entourage will use every possible lever at the disposal of the Elysee Palace to put sticks in the wheels of the pro-Lebanese parliament and Cabinet, if one is actually formed. So it will be more like a rather complicated underhand struggle with a lot of intrigue, where each side will try to slow down the other wherever it can.

On the other hand, for Macron and his entourage, this could also be a curious experiment before the presidential election, i.e. to give the far-right parties an opportunity to prove themselves in power, to show themselves to the voters and see what will come out of it, because it is not certain that Le Pen's supporters will be able to cope with all the problems at once. Perhaps the political course of the extreme right parties will not be so effective, and then at the presidential elections Macron's followers can point to the weaknesses of the political course of the extreme right parties", - said the francophile.

As for the foreign policy track, he says, serious changes are certainly not going to happen quickly.

"Even if the extreme right comes to power, they will have to take into account the opinion of various interest groups. Obviously, under the current circumstances, they will not have broad powers to reshape France's entire foreign policy course. Therefore, let's not guess at the coffee grounds. We should wait at least for the results of voting in the parliamentary elections, the formation of the new Cabinet of Ministers and the first steps of the new government. Then it will be a little clearer," Ignatchenko said.

German political scientist, professor at the WeltTrends Institute for International Politics (Potsdam) Alexander Rahr, in his turn, is confident that Marine Le Pen's National Rally party will definitely get the majority of votes in the French parliament.

"But it's unlikely to get more than 40%. We mustn't forget that France is a presidential republic. The president always stands above the fray of various parties or individual factions in parliament. France's foreign and defense policy has nothing to do with the parliament, these areas are fully managed by the president. The question is, why did Macron dissolve parliament? Maybe he wants to gain the trust of the voters one last time, in the hope that they will vote for his party after all. But he must realize that this is an illusion," the professor said.

He said that in French politics, the prime minister, unlike the president, cannot rule the country's economy without the support of parliament.

"In the history of France, there has often been so-called cohabitation - a president from one party, a prime minister from a completely different party. This option is possible now: a person from the Rassemblement Nationale party could become prime minister. But this option has never been good for the overall development of the country.

On the other hand, what does Macron have to lose? He is finishing his second term as president, and he cannot be elected for a third term under the Constitution. The question is what the rest of Europe should do about the political mess in France, which is one of the main countries of the European Union. In another country that, along with France, is part of Europe's leadership, Germany, Scholz's government is also on the verge of collapse. The internal problems that will intensify in the coming months in both Germany and France will have a very negative impact on the overall politics of Europe. On the horizon are the US elections and the emergence of Donald Trump, whom the right-wing forces of Europe are eagerly awaiting," concluded Rahr.

Caliber.Az