Azerbaijan, Armenia in focus: Rebuilding, delimitation, US interest in peace treaty
Weekly review

ANALYTICS  30 June 2024 - 16:19

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of the “Events” (Sobitiya) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, which features the week’s political developments in Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijani-Armenia

By order of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the Milli Majlis (Parliament) of the sixth convocation has been dissolved and extraordinary parliamentary elections to be held on September 1 this year have been scheduled. As in the case of early presidential elections, they will be the first parliamentary elections to be held throughout Azerbaijan.

The event "New opportunities for entrepreneurs: let's build Karabakh together" was held in Shusha. Speaking at the meeting, Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov noted that the main goal is to restore and reconstruct the liberated territories. According to Jabbarov, "thousands of jobs have been created there, most of which fall on the share of the private sector". The Minister also noted that there are privileges for entrepreneurs in the liberated territories and emphasized that Agdam Industrial Park is the second industrial park in the country after Sumgayit Chemical Industrial Park in terms of the number of residents.

Special representatives of the President of Azerbaijan in different administrative centers of the Karabakh region also made reports on the work done and development plans at the event. Thus, in Shusha, conditions have been created for the activities of about 20 entrepreneurs, including both individuals and legal entities. In this city, construction of 10 buildings within the framework of public-private partnership on "Garabagh" street continues at a rapid pace. By the end of the year, hotels, catering facilities and retail outlets are planned to be set up in these buildings.

It is also planned to relocate 53 families to Khojavand by the end of this year. More than 3,132 people already live in Fuzuli, and 450 students are studying in a new school donated to us by Uzbekistan.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien. The US envoy emphasized the importance of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the US in various spheres, including those related to the Middle Corridor and energy security in Europe.

Even before arriving in Baku, O'Brien said there was a strategic need to promote a trade route for Central Asian exports to world markets, bypassing China and Russia. "One route goes through Georgia to the Black Sea, but another, potentially larger one, would go through Azerbaijan, Armenia and Türkiye, and for these reasons we need a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia," the diplomat explained.

Based on some recent statements by US diplomats, the US efforts include a desire to accelerate the signing of a peace treaty without eliminating clauses in the Armenian Constitution containing territorial claims to Azerbaijan. Although in Baku, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov brought to O'Brien's attention the importance of eliminating claims to Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty in Armenia's Constitution and legislative acts. Bayramov also added that Armenia's policy of militarization does not serve peace and stability in the region.

Meanwhile, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan made a very odious statement. Perhaps it is worth quoting it in full: "We were completely dependent on Russia. Russia came, took away Nagorno-Karabakh from us, returned it to Azerbaijan, then left, that's the whole reality. I claim that Russia seized Nagorno-Karabakh. Without Russia's permission there would have been no war," Grigoryan said.

First and foremost, it is noticeable that there is a very sharp attack on Russia, obviously ordered by the same Western patrons. However, it should not be forgotten that such statements may also be addressed to the domestic audience. In a situation where it only takes a small spark for protests to flare up again, Pashinyan's team is attempting to play on the patriotic sentiments of the society through such populist measures. However, at the same time, due to their overtly revanchist message, these signals can inevitably damage the peace process.

However, the good news is that the process of delimitation continues. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, during his visit to Tbilisi, announced that work on delimiting the borders with Armenia is ongoing and that in the near future, we will witness further positive steps.

In principle, in Baku, there are no illusions about sudden peacemaking from the Armenian leadership, and they are shaping their security policy relying solely on their own strengths, both politically and diplomatically, as well as militarily. On June 26, Azerbaijani Presidential Assistant Hikmet Hajiyev succinctly expressed the leitmotif of this policy: "Diplomacy without an army is like music without an instrument." "The strong Azerbaijani Army is not only an active deterrent against those dreaming of revenge, but also a guarantor of peace and stability in the region," noted Hajiyev. Responding to Grigoryan's earlier statement, Hajiyev advised individuals in Armenia's military-political leadership to completely abandon revanchist and revisionist aspirations and to cease militarization policies to avoid repeating historical mistakes.

Ukraine-Russia

The situation on the Ukrainian front remains largely unchanged. There have been no significant breakthroughs by the Russian army, and Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attempts to capture the strategically important micro-district of "Kanal" in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian media attribute this success to incoming Western artillery shells. They also note that the unfavorable artillery exchange ratio for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has decreased from 1 to 10 to 1 to 3.

Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure in powerful strikes in Lviv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This has led to a shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian air defense systems, potentially threatening a winter without electricity and impacting defense capabilities. President Zelensky's recent statement indicating Ukraine's readiness for negotiations with Russia may be influenced by these developments. He outlined certain conditions, marking a notable shift from his previous stance of categorically rejecting talks with Vladimir Putin. In October 2022, Zelensky even signed a decree prohibiting such negotiations. Now, according to Zelensky, Ukraine must present its plan for resolving the military conflict with Russia within the coming months, emphasizing a desire to avoid prolonged hostilities.

Middle East

The Israeli military is in the final stages of its operation in Rafah. However, the focus is on degrading the combat capability of Hamas rather than completely eliminating the group as a political force. Tel Aviv still lacks a conceptual solution to the Gaza issue. Moreover, there is active recruitment of new members into Hamas's military ranks among Gaza's youth.

Despite a slight reduction in the intensity of rocket fire from Hezbollah into Israel, there remains a high risk of Israel launching a ground invasion into Lebanon. In anticipation of this scenario, foreign nationals have begun mass exodus from the country. The United States declared its support for Israel and even positioned the aircraft carrier "Dwight D. Eisenhower" near the shores of Cyprus.

Meanwhile, Tehran warned that any Israeli attempt to attack Lebanon would lead to a war of annihilation. Simultaneously, Iran demanded the immediate and complete withdrawal of the US military contingent from Syria. Secret negotiations are likely underway between Washington and Tehran aimed at de-escalating the situation, at least until the US presidential elections.

Iran

The Islamic Republic has concluded its presidential election, with reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili leading in the first round. Since no candidate secured more than 50 per cent of the votes, Pezeshkian and Jalili will face each other in the second round on July 5.

The United States

Despite global conflicts, the spotlight remains on the presidential race in the United States, still regarded as the world's most powerful country. The first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump took place, with unanimous agreement among viewers and experts that Biden performed weaker, stumbling on data and speaking less effectively, while Trump appeared energetic and confident. However, many attribute Trump's success to Biden's fatigue and physical condition rather than the effectiveness of the Republican candidate's performance. According to a CNN poll, 67 per cent of viewers declared Trump the winner, with only 33 per cent supporting Biden.

While Democrats overall continue to support their candidate, signs of doubt within the party are emerging. Some senior Democratic figures are openly discussing whether they should nominate another candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. The New York Times has echoed this sentiment.

Caliber.Az