Azerbaijan: deck of cards open, bets made
Review of Azerbaijani president’s talks with foreign analysts
ANALYTICS 01 May 2022 - 12:32
Samir Veliyev Caliber.Az |
The Azerbaijani public was impatiently waiting for President Ilham Aliyev’s new statement amid the biggest geopolitical conflict, which is being waged in the world since World War II and the echo of the Russian-Ukrainian war spreading throughout the post-Soviet area. Many people wanted to listen to the president’s speech to know where Azerbaijan is heading in this turbulent period of time. The international conference entitled "South Caucasus: Development and Cooperation", held on April 29 within the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy (ADA), became an ideal platform for Baku to voice its foreign policy vision both for local and foreign experts. Forty analysts who represented the world's leading think tanks from 23 countries and President Ilham Aliyev discussed the most important issues included in the regional and global political agenda for about three hours. The president's conversation with foreign experts was broadcast live and turned out to be detailed and comprehensive.
South Caucasus - an integrated security area
President Aliyev immediately drew the experts' attention to the post-war realities in the region. In general, such a phrase as “post-war realities in the region” is regularly voiced by the president from the first days after the end of the 44-day second Armenia-Azerbaijan Karabakh war.
President Aliyev is constantly reiterating this phrase, clearly signalling to all partners and opponents that the past will not be returned under any circumstances.
What about the future? Today, Baku is persistently advocating a peace agenda based on the well-known five principles, having enlisted the support of the international community and the regional countries on this issue.
Today, Azerbaijan is consciously relying on regional development and new economic opportunities in the South Caucasus, hoping to strengthen the ability of the Caucasus to counteract new wars.
During the conference, President Aliyev has already spoken about the possibilities of trilateral cooperation among Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Moreover, the Azerbaijani president came out in support of trilateral cooperation at the level of civil society of three South Caucasian countries. Armenian ex-President Serzh Sargsyan actively hampered this initiative.
During the conference, President Aliyev openly voiced his expectations that the Armenian side would accept his peace agenda, without distorting its essence through diplomatic tricks designed to disguise revanchist intentions. The peace formula, which is proposed by Baku is quite simple. The two countries recognize each other within the boundaries within which they were admitted to the UN. The issue related to the Karabakh Armenians is Azerbaijan’s internal affair and Armenia must once and for all abandon any attempts to achieve the “independence” of Karabakh or its annexation.
The topic related to the rights of Karabakh Armenians cannot be used to try to annex Azerbaijan’s territory or not to recognize Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the Karabakh region. Any other approaches are equated with revanchism.
Of course, Yerevan has an alternative to the Azerbaijani peace agenda that’s a new direct military clash with Azerbaijan. As President Aliyev stressed such a war would mean the official end of Armenia’s statehood. The signal is harsh and important as the liquidation of Armenia’s statehood may end in modern Yerevan, which will again become Iravan. Azerbaijan’s peace agenda must be more attractive to Armenia after President Aliyev’s words about doubling the number of special forces and sharp strengthening of the army compared to the period of the 2020 war.
The Azerbaijani leadership makes it clear that it understands the problems of Armenia and its society.
It needs “psychotherapy” and full-fledged denazification in the original sense of the word, without reference to modern geopolitical discourse.
The Armenian society is full of the fascist ideas of Garegin Nzhdeh and the concept of “miatsum” [an idea based on the demand of the Armenians living in the Karabakh region to annex the predominantly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region for Armenia]. However, there is slight hope for improvement. This also refers to the issue of signing a peace agreement.
“Finally, we got a positive response from Armenia just recently. Their government accepted five basic principles, which Azerbaijan put forward, the principles which should be a foundation for a peace agreement with Armenia. If a peace agreement is signed and those basic principles are known, then the peace in the Caucasus will be long-lasting and sustainable,” President Aliyev said.
“Normalizing relations with Azerbaijan will open such opportunities for Armenia that probably today it is difficult even to predict,” President Aliyev added.
The president's remark that Azerbaijan is receiving positive signals from the Karabakh Armenians related to their reintegration was also symbolic. President Aliyev has not disclosed the details, but his words stipulate certain progress in the issue related to the return of Karabakh Armenians to Azerbaijan.
Russia and Turkey - cooperation instead of confrontation
Representatives of foreign "think tanks" were greatly interested in Azerbaijan’s position towards the Russian Federation amid the Russian-Ukrainian war, when many countries are introducing new sanctions against Moscow.
President Aliyev once again confirmed Baku’s unchanged foreign policy principles. Azerbaijan acts proceeding from national interests, and its actions are aimed at achieving maximum success and stability on its borders.
President Aliyev stressed that the Shusha Declaration signed between Azerbaijan and Turkey in June 2021, which outlines the essence of cooperation and brotherhood with Turkey, as well as the Declaration on Allied Cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia, signed in February 2022, based on Baku’s strategic interests must be considered in this context. “Russia is our neighbour. Both declarations have become a message for regional players. There must be peace in the region,” President Aliyev said.
“Both Turkey and Russia are participants in a new configuration in the region after the war,” the president said. Such a format of interaction has become possible for the first time in history, and this certainly serves regional security and stability. Moreover, it testifies to the sovereign nature of Baku's foreign policy, which managed to avoid a difficult and even dangerous choice – either….or.... Turkey or Russia. Perhaps, our country succeeded by choosing and implementing “and” instead of "or" format.
"Red Line" - territorial integrity of countries
However, friendship is one thing, but there are red lines that our country will not cross. One of them is the principle of the territorial integrity of countries. Azerbaijan’s lands have been a laboratory for Armenian Nazi ideologists and their patrons for almost 30 years, in which they conducted their unsuccessful experiments to create the “second fake Armenian state”.
As a result of experiments, ugly, non-viable "Artsakh" represented by moron Arik Harutyunyan appeared. So, Azerbaijan cannot selectively approach the fundamental principles of international law. Baku supports the sovereignty of Georgia, Moldova and Serbia. Ukraine is not an exception. Even Northern Cyprus, in which our fraternal Turkish Cypriots live, has not yet been recognized by Azerbaijan. The excerpts from President Aliyev's answer to a question of Ukrainian Aliona Hlivco, who is the strategic relations manager of the "Henry Jackson Society" should be cited.
“Proceeding from our experience, the most important thing is to never agree to an occupation. First, never, under any circumstances, agree to the violation of territorial integrity,” the president said.
“Second, the lesson I learned during the occupation is to rely on internal resources. Thirdly, do not rely on the decisions and resolutions of international organizations, they are of no value,” the president added.
“We support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and all other countries. We do it openly, we don't hide behind big trees. We say what we mean,” President Aliyev said.
“We have good relations with Russia. However, we also have good relations with Ukraine, and the interpretation of norms of international law must not be based on political preferences,” the president said.
In general, everybody understood following the conference that the Azerbaijani leadership is trying to ensure a maximal level of cooperation in the region, promote peaceful initiatives, distance from conflicts and prevent dragging our small country upon the world standards into the confrontation between Russia and the West. By remaining a pragmatist, President Aliyev continues to build a strong army and diversify the country's trade and economic ties as much as possible.
It is noteworthy that the conference entitled "South Caucasus: Development and Cooperation" was held immediately after its participants visited the Azerbaijani territories liberated from the Armenian occupation. It was the organizers’ smart action. Indeed, when the conference kicked off, the guests had an opinion about the huge destruction and vandalism in the Azerbaijani lands during the Armenian occupation, as well as Azerbaijan's plans and intentions to restore the region. The guests viewed the conducted restoration work.
The issue related to Azerbaijan's interaction with leading international organizations to consolidate new realities and convey Baku's view concerning the region has already been discussed at the conference. The meaningful speech of President Aliyev, his direct and frank answers to the event participants’ questions of interest, broadcast live in English, will certainly contribute to the international community’s adequate perception of the new realities that have been created in our region.
Caliber.Az
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