“Chaos in Armenia could be a pretext to defeat the remnants of armed gangs in Karabakh”
Farhad Mammadov's viewpoint
ANALYTICS 05 May 2022 - 18:37
Politics Department |
An Azerbaijani political analyst, Farhad Mammadov, has commented on an ambiguous statement made by the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan, who today called the solution of the Karabakh issue "ensuring the safety and rights of Armenians".
The secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, who is one of the authorities responsible for relations with Azerbaijan, also spoke about the reasons for the delay in the normalization process, Mammadov says.
"What conclusions can we draw?
- The Armenian side is ready to recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity if Baku starts negotiations on security guarantees for Karabakh Armenians: the "status" issue is considered as a mechanism to ensure the security of... 5 basic principles of Azerbaijan + 1 Armenian. Without this, the Armenian side sees no point in continuing negotiations on any of the issues on the agenda!
- Interestingly, neither Brussels nor Moscow have mentioned the sixth principle put forward by Armenia in their statements. This point was either not touched upon during the talks in Brussels or was bypassed, because Charles Michel's statement does not even hint at the "status" issue or any mention of Karabakh at all. That is, this point is not fixed as the sixth basic principle!
- So, Armenia's insistence on this issue came after Brussels, namely after Pashinyan visited Moscow. This is exactly what Lavrov meant at his meeting with Mirzoyan when he said that "the West is sacrificing Armenia's interests" by rejecting the OSCE Minsk Group institute, where there was a theoretical opportunity to raise the "status" issue and security guarantees.
Thus, Armenia's preconditions are dictated by internal developments and Russia's demands (as security guarantees for Karabakh Armenians are about the mandate of the Russian peacekeeper contingent and the term of its stay on the territory of Azerbaijan).
It's time for Baku to choose:
- Either go for negotiations and introduce the topic of security guarantees for Karabakh Armenians into the basic principles. The "status" issue should be changed to a set of self-government arrangements in accordance with the Constitution of Azerbaijan, commitments to solve all issues by political means and in return ensure the withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian armed gangs;
- Or it can use the tried and tested method of pressure and weaken Armenia and Pashinyan's government to the point when they accept our agenda in its entirety without any preconditions. Our advantage is that both Russia and the EU are aware of the volatility of Yerevan's position. Chaos in Armenia can become a pretext for radical decisions to defeat the remaining Armenian armed gangs in Karabakh and to continue unilaterally establishing the border," Mammadov wrote.
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