Russian expert rules out change of power in Armenia
INTERVIEWS 11 May 2022 - 11:01
Matanat Nasibova Caliber.Az |
From the start of the post-conflict period (after the 44-day war in Karabakh in 2020) to the present, the current protests in Armenia are the largest in scale, and they can, in a certain sense, to destabilize the country's internal political situation, but there is no threat of a change of power at the moment.
Sergey Margulis, a Russian expert, senior lecturer at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies at the Institute of Social Sciences of RANEPA [Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration], made the remarks in an interview with Caliber.az, while commenting on the actions of disobedience in Armenia.
According to the Russian expert, Pashinyan's acceptance of the five basic principles proposed by Baku, as well as his statements about the absence of territorial claims against Azerbaijan, are the main reason for the current protests, since they are regarded in Armenia as a "betrayal of the national interests of the Armenian people".
"The situation in Armenia is really unstable, but I think it does not pose any potential threats to the current regime yet. A change of power in Armenia is unlikely at the moment, although I would not completely rule out such a scenario.
As for the potential risk of unleashing a new phase of the war, I think this possibility is also low. It is unlikely that Armenia will decide on such a thing now.
It is an obvious fact that Armenian nationalists are extremely radical towards Azerbaijan and Turkey. Therefore, if we hypothetically assume a possible change of power in Armenia, then in this case the escalation of tension in the country will increase significantly. Accordingly, in this scenario, I would not rule out the possibility of unleashing a new phase of the military conflict, given that a group of people eager for revenge has concentrated behind the backs of the current opposition leaders. But this is again a hypothetical alignment on the situation in Armenia. In reality, the opposition's capabilities are not enough to carry out a coup, which was also shown by the elections in Armenia. The election results confirmed that the rating of Kocharyan and other representatives of the opposition is much lower than the rating of Pashinyan himself. Therefore, I believe that for a significant part of the population, Pashinyan's candidacy as a key figure in the government is the most acceptable," the expert continued.
As for the Armenian-Turkish agenda, Sergey Margulis estimates that at present, especially against the background of protest unrest in Armenia, the process of normalization of relations is unlikely.
"Despite the negotiation process involving Armenian and Turkish special representatives, I do not believe that relations between Ankara and Yerevan will be normalized in the near future. Even though some Armenian politicians, including Pashinyan himself, have stated that Armenia is willing to normalize relations with Turkey, I believe it is premature to discuss diplomatic relations between the two countries. At least for the time being.
Pashinyan will almost certainly have to make some concessions to the protesters. As a result, the intensity of the negotiations with Azerbaijan and Turkey may decrease," Sergey Margulis said.
Caliber.Az
1
|
20 points. What did Armenia, the EU and the US agree on in Brussels? Sensational details on Caliber.Az
17 April 2024 - 11:01
|
2
|
Iran seeks international backing following missile strikes on Israel Raisi calls Russia & Qatari leaders amid tension
17 April 2024 - 16:56
|
3
|
Serbian President seeks Azerbaijani support amid Western pressures Insights from Political Scientist Stevan Gajić
17 April 2024 - 13:10
|
4
|
French ambassador recalled from Azerbaijan amidst bilateral strain Macron admits defeat
17 April 2024 - 15:19
|
5
|
Is Ukraine on the edge? Big vulnerabilities
17 April 2024 - 16:13
|
US blocks Palestine from becoming UN full member
19 April 2024 - 23:00
Egypt, Türkiye to discuss bilateral trade, regional issues, including Gaza
19 April 2024 - 20:59
Geneva to host Turkic Week for the first time
PHOTO19 April 2024 - 20:49
Azerbaijani FM commends outgoing Algerian envoy’s diplomatic service
Discusses bilateral ties & regional developments19 April 2024 - 20:39
NATO approves Azerbaijani-Romanian project
19 April 2024 - 20:30
Baku Airport once again awarded Skytrax
19 April 2024 - 20:21
Punitive op against Israel untied country: Raisi
19 April 2024 - 19:59
US leader weighs another $1 billion in arms sales to Israel
19 April 2024 - 19:42
Parliamentarian hails Azerbaijani president's strategic triumph
For restoring control over four villages19 April 2024 - 19:35
Tensions mount over religious freedom in India
Concerns rise amid BJP's influence and controversial policies19 April 2024 - 19:22
Azerbaijani top prosecutor becomes vice-president of International Association of Prosecutors
19 April 2024 - 19:14
Second-in-command: Hezbollah would respond to Israeli escalation
19 April 2024 - 19:02
Azerbaijani top diplomat, outgoing Italian envoy mull relations & regional dynamics
19 April 2024 - 18:50
Secretary of State: US can not support major military operation in Rafah
19 April 2024 - 18:42
Azerbaijan commends return of four Armenia-controlled villages
19 April 2024 - 18:30
Azerbaijani FM, Palestinian PM discuss situation in Gaza
19 April 2024 - 18:22
Armenian analyst confirms Caliber.Az information
Secret talks in Brussels19 April 2024 - 18:17
Azerbaijan achieves return of villages seized by Armenia
New stage of bolstering nation’s sovereignty19 April 2024 - 18:12
Azerbaijani, Kyrgyz customs services eye to cooperate
19 April 2024 - 18:02
France's ambassador recall from Azerbaijan
A symbolic gesture or strategic misstep?19 April 2024 - 18:00
Türkiye calls for restraint amid reported Israel attack on Iran
19 April 2024 - 17:42
Rogun Hydropower Plant in action and Tajikistan’s energy needs
Blessing or curse?19 April 2024 - 17:37
Public hearings on Azerbaijan's preliminary objections end at International Court of Justice
19 April 2024 - 17:22
Azerbaijan, Armenia agree on important points of border delimitation
Details19 April 2024 - 17:09
US criticises Russian peacekeepers' withdrawal from Karabakh
Revealing double standards in South Caucasus policy19 April 2024 - 17:05
G7 FMs remain committed to fully enforcing sanctions on Russia
19 April 2024 - 17:02
Armenia's shift towards West sparks geopolitical concerns, potential security risks
Armenia may become a target for Iranian or Russian missiles19 April 2024 - 16:45
World's largest Chinese telescope spots over 900 pulsars
19 April 2024 - 16:42
Azerbaijani President, German Chancellor to hold talks in Berlin
19 April 2024 - 16:26
Azerbaijani, Russian leaders discuss further development of strategic partnership
19 April 2024 - 16:24
Russia likely lost rare air surveillance system, Fundament-M
19 April 2024 - 16:21
Argentina takes first step toward NATO partnership
19 April 2024 - 16:01
G7 FMs urge Armenia, Azerbaijan to adhere to peace process
19 April 2024 - 15:35
Azerbaijani delegation to observe parliamentary elections in Maldives
19 April 2024 - 15:31
The Gulf ramps up efforts to stabilize the Middle East
Uneasy alliance19 April 2024 - 15:19
European Commission President von der Leyen visits Finland’s eastern border
19 April 2024 - 15:11
Russian FM: Armenia still fails to delimit border with Azerbaijan
19 April 2024 - 15:06
EU prepares 14th package of sanctions targeting those circumventing restrictions on Russia
19 April 2024 - 14:51
FM: Armenia – still Russia’s ally
19 April 2024 - 14:48
Ukraine is ignoring US warnings to end drone operations inside Russia
19 April 2024 - 14:30