China-Russia tandem: Confrontation with US or pure business?
Expert views on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  25 May 2022 - 15:03

At a recent joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the American president, with a small reservation - "if necessary" - declared the readiness of the United States to defend Taiwan militarily. Such a "case", according to Biden, could be the invasion of China on the island, the probability of which has increased significantly after Russia's attack on Ukraine. Washington, according to the American leader, is committed to the "one China policy", but this does not mean that Beijing has the right to use force to seize Taiwan.

Concern about the "security of the Taiwan Strait", directly related to the preservation of the status quo unilaterally by the island, is a long-standing whim of the Americans, and Biden did not fail to once again declare the inadmissibility of changing the existing situation. "This will be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine," the American president threatened.

By the way, the United States pointed out to China the risks due to the situation in Ukraine, or rather, if they follow the example of the Russian Federation, even before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian military confrontation. Well, after it became a reality, the rhetoric of the Americans towards Beijing became more formidable. As always, the "Taiwan card" was used, which the United States periodically throws in to contain the unprecedented strengthening of China's economic power and the country's increasing influence on the entire Asia-Pacific region. Insisting on maintaining the status quo of the island, Washington otherwise promises Beijing all sorts of sanctions.

Another reason to think more often about Taiwan in the past few years has been the growing Russian-Chinese rapprochement for Americans, and the current reason to once again "strictly warn" Beijing is the tacit support for the Russian operation in Ukraine. Despite the fact that the question of whether China is really on Russia's side and supports it bypassing Western sanctions remains open. Few experts today are willing to say whether Beijing is really at one with Moscow or, on the contrary, in solidarity with the West. Washington probably does not know this either, but just in case they warn the Chinese by a tried and tested method – a promise not to offend Taiwan.

Political scientists presented to Caliber.Az their views on the geopolitical intertwining of the factor of rapprochement between China and the Russian Federation as opposed to the United States, Beijing's real or imagined support for the Russian "special operation" in Ukraine, and Taiwan's role in all of this.

China is able to absorb Russia…

Belarusian expert Yuri Shevtsov has no doubt that, although China does not interfere directly, it ultimately supports Russia's position in the war against Ukraine.

"Beijing's political position is complementary to Russia's. China and Russia have a rapidly growing trade turnover, and this allows Moscow to largely compensate for Western sanctions. The two countries plan to further increase trade turnover and other forms of interaction. Therefore, we can say that at this historical moment, Beijing and Moscow are actually in one bundle, thereby opposing Washington. This is how Americans perceive the current rapprochement between Russia and China. Against this background, the probability of a military confrontation between the United States and China, despite the statement of the American president on Taiwan, is very low. More precisely, such a probability is permissible purely theoretically, since the contradictions between China and the United States are far enough from a military confrontation. The parties are still limited to economic wars. At the same time, there is a global competition between them, since both countries are the most powerful on the planet. They are developing a national territory, which means they are competitors," the political scientist said.

"As for Biden's statement on Taiwan addressed to China, this is a kind of political manipulation, an element of diplomatic confrontation and, ultimately, a political lever of pressure on Beijing. And Russian-Chinese relations are likely to deepen even more. At the same time, we are not talking about integration - China is capable of absorbing Russia in this sense. However, closer economic and political relations between them are quite possible and even inevitable.

There is also no need to talk about a direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. I think it won't come to that," he noted.

Empty rhetoric of the States…

Kazakh political and economic expert on Central Asia Vyacheslav Shekunskikh adheres to approximately the same position, believing that the United States now "can only play in the confrontation of messages".

"President Biden said, and the State Department corrected, that he allegedly did not mean it. At the same time, there is an appearance that Britain is trying to regain lost positions, but its practice of fighting with someone else's hands in the case of China cannot be implemented. The PRC [People's Republc of China] has no serious external opponents, and the internal ones are still being kept under control. Another thing is that this "so far" has unknown prospects in time. In general, the United States and China are successfully rattling weapons, and Beijing promptly makes it clear that it is an active party in the game, implementing this through diplomatic means and joint exercises with the Russian Federation.

It is also clear that the Chinese understand the weakness of the counterparty and have strengthened their rhetoric, which they previously avoided. The United States will definitely not risk an open confrontation now, much less direct military operations. The guarantee of this can be the "slowness" of the processes in the country's leadership. Biden may turn out to be one of the few presidents who did not stir up a war far from their mainland, but the country's leadership will definitely shy away from having a war nearby that Pearl Harbor will seem like an easy demo," Shekunskikh believes.

China for "soft power" policy

Tatyana Poloskova, a doctor of political sciences and the director of the consulting centre Eastern Vector, first of all emphasizes that China has not declared its support for Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine. And this decision, she is sure, "was taken by official Beijing not out of its hat, but after consultations, including with Russian specialists".

"I have been cooperating with one of the leading analytical centers in Beijing for more than three years, I visited China on the eve of the pandemic - and my contacts there are quite good. I admit, while studying at the university, I even tried to learn Chinese, but I didn't have enough willpower. So, in political terms, China adheres to an officially neutral position on the Ukrainian topic, and as for economic steps, restrictions on Russia that have been adopted are quite tough. As they say, they put pressure on the rouble (in this case, the yuan). A number of leading Chinese banks stopped operations with Russia almost immediately after the start of the special operation. Deliveries of goods have been suspended, important logistics routes have been closed. Moreover, China declares precisely the suspension, that is, it acts in its usual diplomatic manner - without harsh statements, but harshly. In addition, using the sanctions that have fallen on Russia, China offers trade deals at dumping prices, and the Russian side has to agree. And what to do?

So China does not provide any unequivocal support to Russia. This is neutrality in politics and strict restrictions in the economy. And then, the special operation in Ukraine is by no means a confrontation between Russia and the West, and Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia were supported not only by the West.

As for Taiwan, I didn't have time to look at the American media, and I never draw conclusions based only on Russian publications. Russian media are now reporting that President Biden has announced the possibility of US military intervention in the event of an attack on Taiwan, despite the fact that Washington remains committed to the 'one China' policy. 'Yes, and this is a commitment that we have made,' Biden said at a press conference in Tokyo, answering the question whether the United States is ready to be involved militarily in case of the need to 'protect Taiwan'. However, I don't think it will come to that. And I don't see any connection between the statement on Taiwan and the special operation in Ukraine at all.

Speaking of the trade and economic war between China and the United States, we must not forget that Western countries are a giant market for China's retail goods. It's a currency. And it is not in China's interests to lose this market. Well, it is not in the tradition of Beijing to solve diplomatic problems by military means. Three years ago, I was invited to Shanghai for a talk at the residence of a very prominent foreign policy specialist, and he told me: 'China's entire foreign policy is soft power'. Without any wars, China gets at its disposal the economic resources of countries and territories through investments and significant projects. All of Latin America is now under China. Not under the USA, and even more so by Russia. This includes the construction of railways (including the project 'From the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic'), nuclear power plants, water supply, factories, logistics centers. The famous Panama Canal is no longer under the United States: officially under the Panamanian state, but the ports are in the hands of Chinese businessmen.

In late May, elections will be held in Colombia, where the left-wing candidate is the favorite of the race. Practically in 2021-2022 there was a strong departure of the region to the left. And the fruits of this will be enjoyed not by Russia, but by China. At the same time, we note that China is able to get along with both the right and the left, because, unlike Russia, it builds relations on mutual interests, and not on personal agreements of top officials. And the same picture is on all continents. I will also tell you about the huge opportunities of the Chinese diaspora in the United States, as well as the most influential Chinese lobby in government bodies and in State corporations. Therefore, in my opinion, it will not come to an open, large-scale confrontation. At least, not yet. In addition, China is actively entering the Russian territories economically.

I will end up saying that there are no friends in politics and business. There are interests. It's corny. But it is. And it concerns Russian-Chinese relations too," Poloskova sums up.

Caliber.Az