Pundit: Having real military force in Ankara huge advantage for Georgia
Georgi Labadze hosted by Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  24 June 2022 - 12:08

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Georgian political scientist, lecturer at Tbilisi State University Georgi Labadze, on the EU summit, potential membership of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia, and cooperation of the South Caucasus countries.

- A summit of the heads of state and government of the EU member states is being held in Brussels to consider a number of topical issues. It is already known that the European Council has decided to grant Moldova and Ukraine the status of an EU candidate, and in the case of Georgia, it was stressed that certain problems will need to be solved. What do you think about this?

- Firstly, the peoples of these countries still have a long way to go to join the EU, even with the status of a candidate, which is already clear for Ukraine and Moldova, but not for Georgia. But I still believe that the EU will make sure that these countries remain in the same basket anyway. Therefore, I believe that the G7 will discuss some conditions that must be met and to which these three countries must respond in order to enter the EU. We know that the condition that initiated and pushed for the possible integration of these countries into the EU is the resistance of the heroic Ukrainian people to Russian military intervention.

Such a step taken by the EU member states was initiated by the fact that they eventually realised the current and future threats from Russia and decided to help Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia somehow leave Moscow's orbit as soon as possible. Candidacy for EU membership, and then membership status, of course, guarantee the prospect of peace and stability in these countries. In addition, it will erase Russian influence in the neighbourhood of the EU, which is an additional advantage that they receive from our possible integration. Therefore, world leaders will pay more attention to these issues than before, before the invasion on February 24.

- What other reforms will Georgia have to implement on the path to candidate status?

- The resolution of the European Parliament clearly outlines 12 recommendations, and I believe that some of them are extremely important and crucial. I would like to focus on four main recommendations.

First: a free and independent judicial system, which is an impossible task for Georgia after the restoration of an independent state;

Second: free and independent media;

Third: protection of the rights of vulnerable groups, such as national minorities, and the introduction of gender equality standards;

Fourth: de-oligarchization, which means the diversification of economic and military resources and the prevention of their concentration in the hands of one political group, especially in the hands of one person.

Without the implementation of these conditions, Georgia does not express a real will and motivation for rapprochement with Europe. So it is probably natural for the European Commission to develop recommendations in this style.

- Is the normalization of Georgian-Ukrainian relations possible and under what conditions?

- I would say that, according to strategic, economic and personal ties, the fate of the Georgian and Ukrainian peoples is to remain closely connected. This is very well perceived and understood by the government of Ukraine, so they never mention the Georgian people in a negative way. But some comments and statements by Georgian officials have spoiled the situation and cast doubt on this strong partnership. On the other hand, the statement of Ukraine's military intelligence about the Georgian government's possible assistance to the Russian Federation in bypassing sanctions and illegal movement of goods also caused certain provocations, since it was distributed without clear evidence. In addition, Georgian officials from the very beginning refused to visit Bucha for the above reason, which also further complicated communication.

The main concern of the Ukrainian government is caused by the harsh statement of the Georgian prime minister, who claimed that Ukraine was punished by Russia, and without specifying and mentioning the Russian Federation as an aggressor. So the anger of the Ukrainian people and the government is natural. What we need is not to be, at least, provocative. But the main problem is that at some point the Georgian and Ukrainian governments stop sharing their absolutely identical interest in Russia.

In the case of Ukraine, all the cards are open, it is in an open war with Russia. As for the Georgian government, it is trying to somehow preserve a temporary and fragile peace, even at the expense of national sovereignty and the opportunity to get closer to the Western security system. It intends to use the new window, which offers Ukraine and other threatened countries the support of allies with various assistance programmes, including the land lease law of 2022. In addition, the Georgian government, by increasing the pace of trade with the Russian Federation since 2015, is trying not to lose its Georgian voters tied to the Russian economic system. Well, since the interests are no longer the same as before, we may have some temporary problems with cooperation. However, I believe that this will change periodically, as the overwhelming majority of the Georgian population expresses support and solidarity with Ukraine, and the government must follow this, otherwise, it will face problems, as it was during the street protest in Tbilisi on June 20.

- Let's talk about Tbilisi's relations with Baku and Ankara. What level are they at today?

- Whatever the level of these ties today, I expect that it will be increased, cooperation will be strengthened, and security conditions will be agreed upon. For Georgia, Türkiye is the only country bordering NATO, which is a real advantage for us, since Ankara has a significant military force. Georgia as a country lives under the constant threat of a military attack from Russia, which means that we must have closer contact with the Turkish military and representatives of law enforcement agencies who can provide us with some assistance in case of escalation. I firmly know that Türkiye and Azerbaijan are very enthusiastic about Georgia as a sovereign state with sufficient military potential because both countries have more or less the same regional interests. That is why, if Georgia starts a discussion, Türkiye is likely to respond positively to broader cooperation in the military, intelligence and security spheres.

The Georgian government should maintain respectful relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye and exclude any pressure or inconvenience between us. For example, it is very important that the ruling party of Georgia does not use border issues one-sidedly, which can lead to a deterioration of relations.

- As for Georgia's accession to NATO, can you predict anything?

- Unfortunately, I can't say anything positive about it. The last time Western political circles considered Georgia's prospects for NATO was in 2019, when former Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposed the Cyprus model of Georgia's integration into the alliance, which means integration with de facto controlled territories, without occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. Of course, the war in Ukraine has created opportunities that were not there before in terms of increasing the security potential, but this is a situation that requires vigilance and action.

Furthermore, NATO membership looks even more complicated than the EU membership status itself, because even Sweden and Finland may doubt whether they will become members at the Madrid summit. I remind you that these are countries that do not have security obligations, have sufficient military potential and are ready to fight a possible invader. With us, everything is completely different. We are in a situation that creates real trouble for NATO, in which no one wants to act in our place, and we are not ready enough for this yet. So I don't have any positive expectations in the near future for such forecasts.

- During a recent visit to Tbilisi, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kara McDonald said that she had brought a message from Washington expressing "deep concern about Georgia's democratic trajectory". What do you think the United States is so worried about?

- If you are a person who visits the website of the Georgian parliament and looks at the voting process on bills, then you will definitely have a huge question about Georgian democracy. The fact is that there are only 76-80 votes of people who were forced by representatives of the ruling party to respond to the formal procedure. It's all. This process is completely partisan, contradicts the principles of a democratic republic, and political minorities do not share even their simplified ideas. This is a real threat and even a product of authoritarianism. When representatives of the US government talk about a decline in the level of democracy, we should closely monitor their statements. For example, in 2012, the ruling party formed a coalition, which included several parties. In 2016, they were more homogeneous, but still, there are several different groups in the government.

And since 2020, all members of the ruling party have a common opinion, as if they have similar thinking in everything. In addition, the real attacks on the main opposition party, on freedom of expression, including the imprisonment of the former president and the possible case of psychological pressure on him, really cause concern. The imprisonment of the director of a major opposition TV company also dramatically worsens the situation, especially when the charges against him are unconvincing and do not meet the very essence of legality. So this deep concern has political, social, and legal grounds that need to be eliminated, approaching the standards of depolarisation and consolidation of political circles.

But this should not be expected from the current ruling party, because such consolidation can have a bad effect on its strength and authority, which its representatives will never want to direct for the good of the country.

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