"Russia continues to perceive the post-Soviet space as a zone of its influence"
Caliber.Az from Tbilisi

INTERVIEWS  30 June 2022 - 13:11

Giorgi Siamashvili, the researcher at the Institute of Political Science and lecturer at Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, answers Caliber.Az's questions about Georgian society's aspirations.

- Georgian society has been very polarized in the last decade. Has anything changed today?

- It is not the society that is polarized; it is the political class and groups of politically active citizens somehow linked to the present or previous authorities. The fact that half of the electorate does not go to the polls at all testifies to the deep disappointment of the people, their disbelief that something can change for the better by means of elections. Mainly opportunistic considerations determine the political orientation, which indicates a low level of civil consciousness.

- How serious is the Ivanishvili and Saakashvili factor in Georgia?

- This factor is still significant since, as I have already said, political forces are concentrated around these prominent figures, real competitors for power.

- If elections are announced in Georgia in the near future, for whom do you think people will vote?

- Under authoritarian rule, elections cannot be free and competitive. But even if one can imagine it, the United National Movement and the Georgian Dream will unambiguously win the most votes. I am sure that even in this case the Georgian Dream will win because for the ordinary voters it is perceived as the lesser of two evils and the guarantee of preserving peace in such troubled times.

- What is the attitude of Georgian society to the possibility of the country joining NATO and the EU? What are the expectations of Georgians and what will it bring to the country?

- As we know from sociological surveys, a large part of Georgian society supports the country's accession to NATO and the EU, because it associates increased security and economic development of the country with membership in these organizations. There are much fewer those who fear an increase in tension in relations with Russia.

The idea of Georgia's admission into NATO without the fifth point, providing for the military support of the country, a member of the alliance, by the rest of its members, was put forward. What would that do for Georgia? NATO's eastward expansion has already led to a terrible disaster. The Russian Federation continues to perceive the post-Soviet space as a zone of its influence, with perhaps with some exception for the Baltic States, which the West has never recognized as part of the USSR.

Not only membership, but even the candidate status in the EU will mean the allocation of additional economic aid for the development of agriculture and industry, but in conditions of authoritarian rule and the impossibility to control money flows the EU aid is unlikely to achieve the aim. Most likely, it will settle in the accounts of those who already have a lot of money.

- What important events do you think have taken place in Georgia over the past two years?

- I do not recall particularly important events. Maybe the most significant, but not so important event was the illegal border crossing by the third President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili, his arrest, hunger strike, and trials. But all this is more relevant for talk-show lovers than for those who think about the real way out of the crisis.

Maybe a more significant event is the visit of the European Parliament representatives to Georgia, the "Charles Michel paper", which envisages the realization of the necessary reforms by the Georgian government, in accordance with the EU standards. Many of our analysts explain it as the fears of Russia's activation in the South Caucasus after Armenia's defeat in the fight for Karabakh.

- How do you assess Georgia's current relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye?

- Thank God, our relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye are peaceful and good-neighborly. Recently a forum was held in Baku with the participation of Azerbaijani and Georgian historians. I edited one of the reports by Georgian historian Otar Janelidze. It tells about the declaration of independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Tbilisi, in the building of the former residence of the Tsar's viceroy in the Caucasus, now the Palace of Student Youth.

Caliber.Az