Turkmen gas to Europe’s rescue?
Prospects and limitations
ANALYTICS 14 July 2022 - 12:50
Orkhan Amashov Caliber.Az |
As the doomsday scenario of a chilly winter without Russian gas continues to prey heavily on the minds of those responsible for the EU’s energy policy, a wide array of options, some previously disparaged, are being contemplated with unflinching urgency.
The idea of integrating the vast gas fields of Turkmenistan, across the Caspian and through Azerbaijan and Türkiye with European energy architecture has traditionally been viewed as a largely esoteric scheme, bedevilled with a litany of practical constraints.
The difficulties have not gone away, but the urge to exploit the possibilities offered by this has assumed heightened significance in light of the EU’s exacerbating predicament. If previous schemes pertaining to Turkmen gas were linked with the costly and improbable Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) project, now much humbler and more practical options seem to be in the offing.
Europe at present
As Europe is cracking under the strain of its bold ambition to extricate itself from dependency on the Kremlin-dominated web of energy supply routes, economic consequences continue to cause massive concerns.
As of June 13, one euro is worth one dollar for the first time in two decades, and there is an exponential fear that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia will, amongst other factors, induce a full-blown recession at home.
Charles-Henry Monchau of the Swiss private bank Banque Syz, in an interview with Bloomberg, stated that the present state of affairs entrapping Europe can be described as a “vicious cycle”, as higher energy prices drive the euro lower, and, in turn, the weaker euro renders energy imports more expensive.
Europe is urgently seeking new gas supplies with the knowledge that no alternative source or alternative sources cumulatively will or can be a replacement for Russian energy, in the short term.
Previous endeavours
Although it cannot be ascertained with any degree of certainty if the whole scheme has been agreed with the EU, Ankara has seriously proposed the idea of the delivery of Turkmen gas westward for the first time in two decades.
On June 2, Turkish Vice President Fuad Oktay, speaking in the Turkish Embassy in Ashgabat stated that three separate options, namely delivery via "a pipeline", "a swap deal" and "a pipeline combined with shipment" were being studied and the principal acquiescence of the Turkmen president was secured.
The plan of connecting the gas-rich Central Asian nation’s resources with European markets has a history which is full of fruitless debates and futile hopes. The idea has historically been viewed as deeply theoretical and largely impracticable.
The rationale militating against such a development included Ashgabat’s perceived recalcitrance, a plethora of geopolitical constraints, linked with the diplomatic pressure exercised by Russia and, to a certain extent, by Iran, together with an absence of infrastructure, collectively making the whole endeavour impossible and a flimsy opportunity for investment.
The prospects for the westward delivery of Turkmen gas were first given due consideration in 1999, when Ankara expressed its explicit backing for a project proposed by a consortium of Shell, Betchell and GE for the construction of a major pipeline across the Caspian Sea, otherwise known as the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) to enable the transport of Central Asia’s rich resources to Azerbaijan and Turkiye, with Europe envisaged as a potential final destination.
In view of Azerbaijan’s newly discovered Shah Deniz field, the idea was shelved. Other than that, the project was objected to by Russia and Iran on two grounds, namely on the basis that all the Caspian Littoral States were to agree to a seabed pipeline, together with alleged environmental concerns, which appeared more contrived than genuine.
Three-pronged scheme
The concept of the aforementioned TCGP remains highly unlikely due to the massive cost it would incur. In this vein, it could be surmised that the pipeline element ingrained in Fuat Oktay’s proposal was not related to the mega-project in question.
David O’Bryan, writing for Eurasianet, is of the opinion that it is probable that reference was being made to the Trans-Caspian Interconnector (TCI), proposed last year by the Florida-based Trans Caspian Resources (TCR).
The plan includes a relatively short 48-mile pipeline across the Caspian Sea which will carry currently flared gas, emitted as a result of oil drilling, from Turkmenistan’s Magtymguly oil field to Azerbaijan’s BP-operated Azeri-Chirag Guneshli oil and gas field, from where it will move westward via existing pipelines.
According to TCR’s own provisional estimate, the proposed pipeline could carry between 10-12 bcm per annum, starting with associated gas.
The second element is more or less straightforward and refers to an existing trilateral swap deal agreed by Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan in November 2021. At present, Ashgabat sends to Tehran 1.5-2 bcm annually, which the latter transports to its northern neighbour. Some energy analysts suggest the overall volume could be doubled.
The Turkish Vice-President's third suggestion of "ships and a pipeline" is somewhat opaque. It could perhaps be surmised that the shipment part of this design would probably entail the shipment of "compressed natural gas", the option hailed for its low cost and practised worldwide as a successful model.
In all guises and implementation modes, the three-pronged proposition involves the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which is an indispensable artery in the westward transport of Turkmen gas obviating Russia. Presently, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) offers around 15 bcm a year of spare capacity.
The export potential of the westernmost section of the SGC, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which currently carries around 10 bcm per annum, is projected to be doubled; according to some estimates, it could even be tripled at some point in the future.
It should also be borne in mind, as a first stage, that the vital link enabling the transport of Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan is yet to be worked out, as without completion of that critical phase, any asseveration as to European prospects of Turkmen gas will be nothing but an example of hoary thinking. The present climate and the measurably improved relations between Baku and Ashgabat give rise to the hope that some of the difficulties previously deemed intractable can be surmounted in the very near future.
Caliber.Az
1
|
20 points. What did Armenia, the EU and the US agree on in Brussels? Sensational details on Caliber.Az
17 April 2024 - 11:01
|
2
|
Iran seeks international backing following missile strikes on Israel Raisi calls Russia & Qatari leaders amid tension
17 April 2024 - 16:56
|
3
|
Serbian President seeks Azerbaijani support amid Western pressures Insights from Political Scientist Stevan Gajić
17 April 2024 - 13:10
|
4
|
French ambassador recalled from Azerbaijan amidst bilateral strain Macron admits defeat
17 April 2024 - 15:19
|
5
|
Is Ukraine on the edge? Big vulnerabilities
17 April 2024 - 16:13
|
Can TikTok's owner afford to lose its killer app?
20 April 2024 - 03:05
Sydney bishop forgives alleged attacker and urges followers not to retaliate
20 April 2024 - 01:03
US blocks Palestine from becoming UN full member
19 April 2024 - 23:00
Egypt, Türkiye to discuss bilateral trade, regional issues, including Gaza
19 April 2024 - 20:59
Geneva to host Turkic Week for the first time
PHOTO19 April 2024 - 20:49
Azerbaijani FM commends outgoing Algerian envoy’s diplomatic service
Discusses bilateral ties & regional developments19 April 2024 - 20:39
NATO approves Azerbaijani-Romanian project
19 April 2024 - 20:30
Baku Airport once again awarded Skytrax
19 April 2024 - 20:21
Punitive op against Israel untied country: Raisi
19 April 2024 - 19:59
US leader weighs another $1 billion in arms sales to Israel
19 April 2024 - 19:42
Parliamentarian hails Azerbaijani president's strategic triumph
For restoring control over four villages19 April 2024 - 19:35
Tensions mount over religious freedom in India
Concerns rise amid BJP's influence and controversial policies19 April 2024 - 19:22
Azerbaijani top prosecutor becomes vice-president of International Association of Prosecutors
19 April 2024 - 19:14
Second-in-command: Hezbollah would respond to Israeli escalation
19 April 2024 - 19:02
Azerbaijani top diplomat, outgoing Italian envoy mull relations & regional dynamics
19 April 2024 - 18:50
Secretary of State: US can not support major military operation in Rafah
19 April 2024 - 18:42
Azerbaijan commends return of four Armenia-controlled villages
19 April 2024 - 18:30
Azerbaijani FM, Palestinian PM discuss situation in Gaza
19 April 2024 - 18:22
Armenian analyst confirms Caliber.Az information
Secret talks in Brussels19 April 2024 - 18:17
Azerbaijan achieves return of villages seized by Armenia
New stage of bolstering nation’s sovereignty19 April 2024 - 18:12
Azerbaijani, Kyrgyz customs services eye to cooperate
19 April 2024 - 18:02
France's ambassador recall from Azerbaijan
A symbolic gesture or strategic misstep?19 April 2024 - 18:00
Türkiye calls for restraint amid reported Israel attack on Iran
19 April 2024 - 17:42
Rogun Hydropower Plant in action and Tajikistan’s energy needs
Blessing or curse?19 April 2024 - 17:37
Public hearings on Azerbaijan's preliminary objections end at International Court of Justice
19 April 2024 - 17:22
Azerbaijan, Armenia agree on important points of border delimitation
Details19 April 2024 - 17:09
US criticises Russian peacekeepers' withdrawal from Karabakh
Revealing double standards in South Caucasus policy19 April 2024 - 17:05
G7 FMs remain committed to fully enforcing sanctions on Russia
19 April 2024 - 17:02
Armenia's shift towards West sparks geopolitical concerns, potential security risks
Armenia may become a target for Iranian or Russian missiles19 April 2024 - 16:45
World's largest Chinese telescope spots over 900 pulsars
19 April 2024 - 16:42
Azerbaijani President, German Chancellor to hold talks in Berlin
19 April 2024 - 16:26
Azerbaijani, Russian leaders discuss further development of strategic partnership
19 April 2024 - 16:24
Russia likely lost rare air surveillance system, Fundament-M
19 April 2024 - 16:21
Argentina takes first step toward NATO partnership
19 April 2024 - 16:01
G7 FMs urge Armenia, Azerbaijan to adhere to peace process
19 April 2024 - 15:35
Azerbaijani delegation to observe parliamentary elections in Maldives
19 April 2024 - 15:31
The Gulf ramps up efforts to stabilize the Middle East
Uneasy alliance19 April 2024 - 15:19
European Commission President von der Leyen visits Finland’s eastern border
19 April 2024 - 15:11
Russian FM: Armenia still fails to delimit border with Azerbaijan
19 April 2024 - 15:06
EU prepares 14th package of sanctions targeting those circumventing restrictions on Russia
19 April 2024 - 14:51