Ukrainian pundit: Russia to use threat of food crisis as tool of pressure
Yurii Poita for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  29 July 2022 - 19:30

Caliber.Az had an interview with the Head of the Asia-Pacific section of the New Geopolitics Research Network (Ukraine) Yurii Poita.

- Agreements on the creation of a corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea and the abolition of anti-Russian restrictions that impede the export of agricultural products and fertilizers have been recently signed in Türkiye’s Istanbul city. Is it possible to say that the grain issue has been practically resolved or it may be delayed?

- Of course, the grain issue has not been resolved. I am personally pessimistic about the statement that an effective corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain to international markets will be established because this is a complex process and its implementation depends not only on well-developed routes. Much depends on a number of other factors.

First, we all understand that Russia's strategic goal is a military victory over Ukraine, establishing control over almost its entire territory. However, Russia is now in a deadlock, so it is forced to continue hostilities.

Despite the military conflict having already turned into positional warfare and Ukraine may soon launch intensive counter-offensive operations, the tasks of the Russian leadership are unlikely to change, that is, hostilities will continue.

As is known, while invading, the Russian Federation attacks the Ukrainian territory with missiles. The Russian Armed Forces are bombing Ukrainian cities, and transport infrastructure facilities, including grain, destroying logistics, which greatly affects Ukraine’s agricultural industry.

The violation of the normal development of the agricultural sector, the destruction of its logistics bases, a lack of access to energy sources, forced departure of people, namely, workers, from the country means that the grain issue will prolong for a long time.

Secondly, it is clear that the guarantees on the security of the grain corridor provided by the UN and Türkiye do not really work.

Despite the documents signed and a coordination centre established, immediately after the adoption of the Istanbul agreement, Russia made a missile attack on the seaport in Odesa, which is involved in the export of Ukrainian grain.

That is, there is a problem in ensuring security as the Russian side is incapable of negotiating and constantly violates its obligations.

Moreover, there are also technical issues that have not yet been resolved. For example, ships that could transport agricultural products should be involved to establish a grain corridor, but safe conditions should be created for them.

Perhaps, these will be private companies that assess the risks in terms of security and financial feasibility, as the services of insurance companies in such circumstances will be much more expensive. This moment is not clarified, although it is quite important and multilateral.

- Can the grain problem change the West's sanctions policy toward Russia? Everyone wants to eat.

- Of course, the Russian Federation will try to influence the sanctions process, because this is one of the most important tasks for it. Even small concessions by the West will be perceived by Moscow as weakness and presented as a precedent. If sanctions are lifted in any industry, this opens an opportunity for further actions to lift restrictions.

That is, it gives Russia the opportunity to continue the negotiation process and put pressure on the West. But in general, I do not think that Russia will achieve great concessions from the West. Many European countries and the UN understand Moscow’s goals and see its aggressiveness. Russia has not yet been recognised as a state financing terrorism, but this is a matter of time. Therefore, I am convinced that it will be unable to change the sanctions policy.

- Can the grain issue affect the course of the war in Ukraine?

- Of course, it can, but it depends on the further situation with grain.

If Ukraine is provided with a corresponding corridor and it works effectively, this will enable Kyiv to export its products, which, in turn, means an influx of foreign currency into the economy and will ensure the country’s economic stability.

A strong economy is required for warfare, for the purchase of weapons, and so on. In other words, a positive solution to the grain issue will increase Ukraine's military capabilities.

In general, it is unprofitable for Russia. Moscow is interested in minimising the effectiveness of Ukrainian resistance and uses all possible tools for this purpose, including economic pressure.

Russia will continue blocking Ukrainian seaports, destroying all routes connecting Ukraine with the international market.

- The information about the threat of global hunger went viral in almost all the world's media outlets. Are these fears justified, taking into account that Ukraine was actually not only the “bread basket” of the post-Soviet area?

- These fears are absolutely justified, because the information in the press is based on the results of research that is carried out by specialised organisations, including those included in the UN system.

An increase in prices for agricultural products, which will negatively affect the economies of many countries that depend on food imports, is also predicted. This primarily concerns the countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and some Asian countries.  Ukraine is one of the key countries - exporters of agricultural products.

According to the various positions, it is among the top five world grain exporters. The country ranked second in the export of barley while fourth in the export of corn in 2021. In other words, Ukraine's contribution to the world’s food security is very big, it exports about 50-60 million tons of grain every year.

- Some experts do not rule out that wars and riots in a number of countries may become a consequence of the grain crisis. Do you agree with this opinion?

- It is hard to say because coup d'état and riots depend on a number of reasons. The country’s economic situation is one of the key factors that can affect riots.

Its deterioration can lead to anti-government protests, and aggravate existing risks. We observed this during the COVID-19 pandemic when the economic downturn in some countries provoked anti-government rallies.

 - Which direction of Ukrainian grain transportation do you consider the most optimal one?

- The Ukrainian grain, or rather, most of it has always been exported through our seaports. About 60 per cent of grain was transported via sea corridors.

It is very difficult to redirect this flow to land corridors. Among other obstacles, this route is complicated by low throughput. For example, about 500 tons of products per month account for land logistics, while up to five million tons of grain were transported by sea in past years.  The capacity of land corridors is less. Meanwhile, besides transport and logistics problems, the producers of Ukrainian agricultural products also faced difficulties. During the hostilities, some agricultural equipment was destroyed, workers moved to safe areas, and some territories are either under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, or intensive hostilities are underway mainly in those regions (Zaporizhzhya, Kherson), which were among those producing agricultural products.

The resumption of the activity of sea corridors does not solve the grain problem. Russia continues fighting, destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, and entire cities and greatly reducing the ability of Ukrainian farmers to grow wheat and produce grain. Even if the Istanbul agreement works, Moscow's goals will not change. They are aimed at destroying the Ukrainian nation and statehood. A temporary truce will be used by Russia only to restore strength to continue its military campaign. Moscow, as before, will use the threat of famine, and the food crisis as a tool of pressure on countries that are less dependent on its oil and gas. Ukraine’s overwhelming military victory is required for full grain exports.

Caliber.Az