"Anti-Russian sentiments - part of Armenia's political landscape"
Dmitry Verkhoturov for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  01 August 2022 - 09:51

Caliber.Az had an interview with Russian political expert, publicist, and public figure Dmitry Verkhoturov.

- Do you think Putin and Erdogan will be able to reach a compromise on the Middle East, particularly Syria, at the upcoming talks in Sochi?

- I think the discussion of the Syrian problem is the main goal of the entire meeting of the two leaders in Sochi. On the whole, it will resemble a bargain. In my opinion, Erdogan is counting on substantial concessions from Moscow in view of his declared military operation in Syria. We must understand that the Turkish president is actually between the hammer and the anvil, i.e. between Russia and NATO, and he will try to solve this difficult situation without significant losses.

- Will the issue of opening the transport communications in the South Caucasus region be discussed in Sochi?

- I am not sure about the discussion of the problem of transport communications, because at the moment there are no special prerequisites for that. Therefore, for the time being, it is an issue of secondary importance. Although it may well be on the list of the negotiations in Sochi.

- While Türkiye and Russia are solving urgent issues, anti-Russian sentiments have again become more active in Armenia. What is the purpose of stoking such hysteria there again?

- Anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia have always existed, they rise and fall now and then, and this fact is traditional. Naturally, there are people who are interested in this kind of mood both inside and outside Armenia. Europe and the US also contribute to stirring up anti-Russian demarches in Armenia. This is also done by former Karabakh fighters, who do not sympathise with Russia because of the well-known events related to the Second Karabakh War in 2020. So anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia is part of the political landscape, and nothing can be done about it. Another thing is that such provocations have no prospects, they can hardly develop into something serious. In general, I do not think they should be given special significance.

- The US and Europe have been particularly interested in the South Caucasus lately, which was confirmed by the recent visit of CIA head William Burns to Armenia. What do you think about this?

- The South Caucasus has always been of interest to the US in connection with the Caspian region and Central Asia. For the Americans to strategically defeat China, they need free access to Central Asia. Then they can impose a blockade on China from all sides - from the sea and from the land. But the fact is that access to Central Asia is quite difficult, and the South Caucasus is one of those routes, which the Americans expect to use if necessary. Meanwhile, in my opinion, this is the least convenient route, because geographically it is a fairly narrow corridor, not suitable for military transport purposes. On the one hand, there is Iran, which is hostile to the US, and on the other hand, there is Russia, which controls this route with the help of Armenia and South Ossetia. Nevertheless, the Americans are still trying to establish control over this corridor for lack of a better one, since all other routes are in fact already blocked.

- How soon do you predict the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border?

- It is difficult to say when the Armenian-Turkish border will open because there are no special prerequisites and no special need for that yet. This is a secondary issue at this stage, although it is not excluded that it is on the agenda of the Sochi talks, and in the meantime, it is discussed unhurriedly.

- Is the apparent rapprochement in Russian-Turkish relations intended for the long term?

- Russian-Turkish relations are a rather interesting, complex, and peculiar sphere because, in fact, we are talking about relations between adversaries. Türkiye is formally a NATO member but, apparently, Ankara has serious reasons to cooperate with Russia, which may be related to political motives or internal processes. Obviously, Türkiye wants to establish friendlier relations with Russia, and the Kremlin is very sympathetic to Ankara, despite a number of existing contradictions.

- How would you assess the political and economic feasibility of the Ankara-Moscow-Iran and Baku-Moscow-Ankara formats?

- Iran will build its policy based only on its own interests and is unlikely to enter any alliances without unique benefits for it. Now the situation has sharply shifted in Tehran's favor, so the Iranian side will make the most of it. The Iranian factor is apparently present in the Russian-Turkish negotiations as well.

As for the Moscow-Baku-Ankara trio, such formats may exist, but in the current difficult geopolitical situation, they are likely to be aimed at solving some urgent situational problems. The situation in the world has become so unpredictable that it is difficult to predict the existence of strong alliances, which in the future could be transformed into organizations with a long-term policy.

Caliber.Az