Russian expert: Armenian-Turkish border opening depends on situation in Karabakh
Georgiy Fedorov on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  03 August 2022 - 12:19

Caliber.Az presents an interview with a Russian political and public figure, member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, President of the Centre for Social and Political Studies "Aspect", Georgiy Fedorov.

- Georgiy Vladimirovich, how do you assess the upcoming meeting of the Turkish and Russian leaders in Sochi and Russian-Turkish relations in general?

- It's too early to evaluate the upcoming meeting. We need to wait at least for the meeting itself since the range of issues that Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan can discuss is very wide: security - Türkiye remains a NATO member; economy - we have developed relations in the field of energy, tourism, trade, etc.; regional issues - Russia and Türkiye - the Black Sea powers; Ukraine, as Türkiye takes an active part in the negotiation process; Syria - due to the participation of Russia and Türkiye in the process of peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict and other issues of bilateral relations.

As for the assessment of Russian-Turkish relations, they can be described as unstable: from very warm to cold.

- Is it possible to assume the creation of a new Moscow-Tehran-Ankara alliance based on the results of the last summit in Tehran?

- It is possible to assume such scenarios, but there are a lot of contradictions between Türkiye and Iran to say that this alliance can be somehow stable and long-term. For tactical purposes, such a format of relations is possible, but from the strategic perspective, such alliances look doubtful.

- How do you assess the regional policy of the Russian Federation at this stage, how pragmatic is it?

- It seems to me that the Russian Federation, being under unprecedented external pressure, in the conditions of a military conflict, is trying to squeeze the maximum possible out of a very difficult situation.

- What conclusions does Moscow draw regarding Armenia based on the current anti-Russian hysteria in Yerevan?

- I think that Moscow is not making any conclusions yet, since the Russian authorities are used to building relations with the ruling circles. The Russian leadership adheres to such a policy throughout the post-Soviet space. Moreover, Armenia remains a strategic ally of Russia, a member of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization]. Therefore, I believe that Russia will continue to build friendly relations with Armenia.

- For what purpose did CIA Director William Burns come to Yerevan?

- According to official information, CIA Director William Burns and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed international and regional security issues. But we all understand that in negotiations of this level, the stated goals may differ from the actual ones. There is really nothing good for Russia in this visit. Perhaps there were proposals for direct cooperation between Washington and Yerevan, perhaps the development of relations with Türkiye was discussed, and perhaps relations with Russia. It is clear that the director of the CIA does not just make visits to other countries. It means that Washington has some plans to separate Armenia from Russia.

- How soon can the Armenian-Turkish border be opened?

- This is unlikely to happen in the near future. And how the situation will develop in the future depends on the situation in Karabakh, on the development of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations.

- What processes can take place in the South Caucasus in the foreseeable future?

- The South Caucasus remains a very hot spot in the global political conjuncture. Any processes can take place there: from military conflicts to economic confrontation.

Caliber.Az