Chinese show interest in markets other than Russian
Maxim Shashenkov for Caliber.Az
INTERVIEWS 04 August 2022 - 11:18
Huseyn Safarov Caliber.Az |
"Only a military conflict around Taiwan or in the South China Sea may provoke China to a high-level confrontation with the West. And now China does not need a conflict with the West," Maxim Shashenkov, Doctor of Sciences in International Relations, Arabist, orientalist historian told Caliber.Az.
"In principle, neither India nor the well-off Arabs of the Persian Gulf and further down the list need it. However, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries do not dream of it either.
No one needs a bitter conflict with the West right now. Everyone is satisfied with the relatively evolutionary and decades-long process of "restructuring". Everyone is trying to avoid economic and financial wars as much as possible because for China, India, and the Gulf monarchies it would be like shooting cannonballs into each other's glass houses. This means that Russia has no ideological allies in destroying the established world order, especially in the economy.
Certainly, each of these countries is secretly or overtly delighted that someone has challenged American hegemony. The non-Western civilizations no longer want to live in a world of total Western domination, but they are all happy with slow evolution and change. No one is willing to move the knight and turn the whole chessboard upside down... No one - except the Russians. So Russia will have to fight the West alone, and this is nothing but a veiled form of isolation. And the main mistake of this struggle is not quite obvious medium and long-term strategic benefits for the Russian people," Shashenkov said.
Moreover, if Washington does not make another big mistake, then even though the complicated US-China relations will not fall to the level of the US-Russian relations, with all the realities for Russia, the expert believes.
"China today is the main beneficiary of the previous era of globalization and the existing world financial, trade, and economic system created by the West. Why should Beijing break it with its own hands? The Chinese know that they are in an advantageous position within this system. The Americans have long understood this, and, incidentally, it was this fact that infuriated former US President Donald Trump. The process of eliminating the old world order was launched by the Americans themselves and began with its central element - economic globalization, which made China a real competitor in the economy, income, technology, and wealth. And where there is a powerful economy, there will be an invincible army," he emphasized.
At the same time, according to Shashenkov, in 2001 the Russian and Chinese economies were almost comparable.
"Since then, however, China's economy has grown five, six times," he specified. - The Celestial Empire has actually become the first economy in the world in terms of GDP per capita in parity. China will inevitably become number one in the world. The economic connection with the United States (the annual trade turnover with America is 6 times greater than with Russia), with the West in general, and with the world's financial institutions is part of the successful Chinese model.
China's goal today is to become the leader of the fourth industrial revolution in technology, science, and standard of living. The Chinese use Russia primarily as a convenient battering ram, a state that successfully distracts the West from contentious issues with China. Of course, Beijing will help Moscow politically, and rhetorically, with the purchase of raw materials at a discount, and import substitution through the Chinese structures of the 2nd and 3rd echelon, not related to the world market, but not in matters of the global economy. "Pearls" and the main "generators" of the Chinese economy will not go to Russia. Other markets are more important and interesting to the Chinese," the scientist believes.
At the same time, Shashenkov notes that the most powerful clusters of growth, success, and power are developing with increasing speed in the world.
"Certain countries or communities of states based on common values, economic success, prosperity, independence and breakthrough nature of technological platforms are able to compete successfully and relatively autonomously in the fourth industrial revolution. The future of Russian civilization is to become one of such clusters, but the way there is by no means through a struggle for historical land. However, the fight has already begun, but it is not quite clear how it will help to create a center of power in the field of economy, improvement of welfare, development of technology, and living standards. It is clear to any thinking person that in reality there was no direct military threat from either NATO or Ukraine to put the really important strategic interests of the Russian nation on the line. The invasion of Ukraine was Moscow's biggest strategic miscalculation, comparable to the mistakes of Nicholas II during the Crimean War.
Moreover, the growing conflict between the West and China gave Russia an excellent chance to act as a balancer and third force in the main world triangle of the 21st century - the West (the USA, first of all), China, and Russia. Such a position of an independent, relatively equidistant force (in the military and resource spheres and in human capital) would have opened up enormous opportunities for the Russian Federation to get major strategic, financial, and economic benefits. Unfortunately, the situation is just the opposite: Moscow has miraculously managed to turn its position as one of the corners of the world triangle from a source of strength into a source of weakness. Having initially not bad cards in hand, it put itself in a deliberately weaker position in the triangle West-China-Russia. The West, which considered China to be its main threat, quickly refocused on Moscow. NATO is expanding and creating a powerful army on its borders with Russia. Ukrainians have become their enemies for more than one generation. Russians should be the last people in Eurasia who have tried to define themselves by ethnicity, language, and 'historical lands.' Russia as a composite civilization should not be divided into Russians/non-Russians. Young Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Georgians, Azerbaijanis, no one needs such a 'Russian world.' The young generation of Russians simply must offer their peers from these countries something other than 'Special Military Operation.' Otherwise, we will end up with nothing. There is hope for the Russian youth," Shashenkov concluded, making no secret of his sharply negative attitude to what is happening in Russia.
Caliber.Az
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